We expect Malaysian auto sales to experience modest growth in 2015 as a subdued economic growth outlook weighs on private consumption. After growing by 1.6% in 2014 to 679,176 units, we forecast vehicle sales to rise by 1.9% in 2015 to 678,930 units.
Our Country Risk team expects economic headwinds to come to the fore in 2015 and forecasts real GDP to be 4.2%, which will be a notable slowdown from the estimated 5.8% GDP growth in 2014. The implementation of a 6.0% goods and services tax in April 2015, combined with the reduction of fuel subsidies will constrain domestic consumption as the prices of goods and fuel increase. Consequently, our CR team expects private consumption growth to slow to 3.0% in 2015 from 3.9% in 2014. Against this backdrop, we are forecasting passenger car sales to rise by a smaller clip of 1.8% in 2015 versus 2.0% in 2014.
While auto sales will struggle to gain traction in 2015 due to flagging economic growth, we believe a certain degree of market saturation is also responsible for anaemic growth over the past few years. Despite GDP growth averaging 5.3% over the 2011-2014 period, auto sales have only seen average growth of 2.5% in the same period, which is certainly a far cry from 12.5% and 12.7% growth experienced by the industry in 2008 and 2010 respectively. With the country having about 40 vehicles for every 100 people, we believe this can be pinned down to a high vehicle density.
The saturated market is likely to weigh on the industry's future growth prospects and, as such, we have become less sanguine on vehicle sales growth over the coming years.
However, we remain more bullish on auto production and forecast output to grow at an annual average of 4.1% over the 2016-2019 period. The country's energy efficient vehicle (EEV) scheme, which was introduced in January 2014, will assist the country's ambition to become an alternative auto export hub within South East Asia (SEA) and allow auto production growth to outpace...
The Malaysia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Malaysia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Malaysia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Malaysian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.