Malaysia Food & Drink Report

Published 17 April 2015

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Malaysia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: The Malaysian economy ' s strong real GDP growth during 2014 , which we estimate reached 5 . 8 % for the full-year, was driven by strong exports and increased domestic consumption. Proposed changes to the country ' s fuel subsidy scheme and the introduction in April 2015 of a 6% goods and services tax (GST) are likely to produce a slowdown in domestic consumption. However, these changes will have a positive impact on long-term fiscal discipline by reducing expenditure and increasing government revenue. BMI maintains its view that, across the forecast period, inflation should remain manageable and continued strong real GDP growth is to be expected , forecast to come in at 4.2% in 2015 .

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 total food consumption sales growth (local currency): +3.7%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014-2019: +3.3%.

  • 2015 per capita food consumption sales growth (local currency): +2.1%; CAGR 2014-2019: +1.9%.

  • 2015 total soft drinks value sales growth (local currency): +4.0%; CAGR 2014-2019: +3.8%.

  • 2015 total MGR value sales growth (local currency): +9.2%; CAGR 2014-2019: +7.8%.

Key Industry Trends

Malaysia ' s Cocoaland Becomes Possible Acquisition Target: A number of reports appeared in April 2015 suggesting that the Swedish private equity group EQT was poised to make a bid for Malaysia's Cocoaland Holdings. EQT is thought to be interested in Cocoaland for its growth potential and considering an offer that would value it at about MYR309 million.

Dairy Farm Delivers Upbeat Annual Results Presentation: Dairy Farm's Group Chief Executive, Graham Allan, delivered a positive report at the company's 2014 Annual Result Presentation on 6 March 2015, stating that sales in all divisions had increased by 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) reaching USD13,103 million, with underlying profits up 4% y-o-y. With regard to the company's MGR segment, sales from its supermarkets and hypermarkets had increased by a modest 1% y-o-y to reach USD6,544...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
18
Confectionery
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
20
Fish
21
Oils And Fats
21
Dairy
22
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
22
Drink
23
Hot Drinks
23
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
24
Alcoholic Drinks
25
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
26
Soft Drinks
27
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Malaysia 2013-2018)
28
Mass Grocery Retail
29
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, Historical Data & Forecast (%)
32
Trade
33
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malaysia 2011-2018)
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Table: Economic Activity (Malaysia 2009-2018)
40
Industry Risk Reward Index
41
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Index
41
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q115
42
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Index Q115 - Selected Countries (scores out of 10)
46
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index
47
Market Overview
48
Food
48
Food Production
48
Confectionery
48
Halal
49
Agriculture
51
Dairy
51
Drink
52
Soft Drinks
52
Hot Drinks
53
Alcoholic Drinks
53
Mass Grocery Retail
54
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Malaysia 2005-2011)
55
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Malaysia 2005-2011)
55
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Malaysia 2005-2011)
56
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Format - 2013
56
Industry Trends And Developments
57
Food
57
Key Industry Trends And Developments
57
Drink
62
Mass Grocery Retail
64
Key Industry Trends And Developments
64
Competitive Landscape
70
Table: Key Players In Malaysia's Food & Drink Sector
70
Table: Key Players In Malaysia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
71
Company Profile
72
Dutch Lady
72
Yeo Hiap Seng
75
Permanis (Asahi)
78
F&N Berhad
81
Dairy Farm
84
Tesco Malaysia
87
Aeon Malaysia
90
Global Industry Overview
93
Table: DOLLAR GENERAL AND FAMILY DOLLAR HISTORIC QUARTERLY SAME-STORE SALES GROWTH (% CHANGE Y-O-Y)
97
Table: SELECT US BEVERAGE COMPANIES - HISTORIC EVA SPREAD
102
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
103
Demographic Forecast
105
Demographic Outlook
105
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
106
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
107
Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
108
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
108
Glossary
109
Food & Drink
109
Mass Grocery Retail
109
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112
Sources
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
113
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
114
Table: Weighting
115

The Malaysia Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Malaysia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Malaysia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc