BMI View: Malaysia's mining output growth will remain weaker than seen in previous years due to continued mineral price weakness. Despite this, the c ontinued presence of major miners across the gold and tin sub-sectors will ensure that output from both segments continues to grow over the forecast period, albeit at a slower rate to that seen in recent years.
|e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Source= USGS, BMI|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||33.88||35.58||37.36||39.22||41.19||43.24||45.41|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||5.00||5.00||5.00||5.00||5.00||5.00||5.00|
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
We forecast gold prices to edge higher over the coming months, averaging USD1,275/oz in 2016 and reaching USD1,500/oz by 2020 ( see: 'Gold: Upward Revision On Inflation Pressure, May 6).
We forecast Malaysia's overall gold production to average annual growth of 6.0% during 2016-2020 to total 184 thousand ounces (koz). While still high by most global comparisons, this represents a marked dip on recent growth levels, which are estimated to have averaged 8.4% a year during 2010-2015.
We have increased our 2016 tin price forecast to USD16,500/tonne owing to a stabilisation in the Chinese economy over Q116 that has boosted all industrial metal prices significantly over January-April. While we expect consolidation over the remainder of 2016, tin prices will continue to recover beyond 2016 as the global market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.
The country's largest producer Malaysia Smelting Corporation's renewed focus on local operations means we expect Malaysia's overall tin output to remain largely unaffected by the current slump in global prices, especially as we forecast global prices to start to rebound from 2017. Malaysia's refined tin output will face an average annual growth of 1.4% during 2016-2020, which is a significant increase from the -2.2% growth from 2011-2015. Nevertheless, Malaysia's global market share will fall modestly from 10.2% in 2016 to 9.9% in 2020.
We expect Malaysia's bauxite mining sector to stagnate over our forecast period to 2020, as it is facing growing environmental, land and labour issues and an impending relaxation of Indonesia's bauxite ore export ban in 2016. Bauxite production will register an average annual growth rate of 4% over 2016-2020, which is a significant fall from the 264% recorded over 2011-2015.
The Malaysia Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Malaysia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Malaysia.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.