Malaysia Oil & Gas Report

Published 11 May 2015

  • 168 pages
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$1,295.00
Malaysia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : A low oil price environment will hit short-term investment, particularly into exploration, and longer-term production prospects. Foreign gas demand for Malaysian gas will also be hit by a more competitive LNG market. Consumption, in contrast, will benefit slightly from lower prices.

Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Energy Commission of Malaysia, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 610.0 616.7 607.1 593.0 589.2 590.0 588.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 545.7 534.8 535.8 455.5 409.9 410.7 410.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 566.4 577.7 589.3 601.1 613.2 625.4 634.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 64.4 64.9 63.0 61.7 62.6 63.4 64.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.2 33.5 34.5 35.4

The main trends and developments we highlight for Malaysia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Weaker incentives to raise production from existing fields to full capacity in a weak oil price environment will see oil output fall in 2015 and 2016. The rising cost of projects in Malaysia, as project types increasingly move towards more difficult developments such as deepwater and enhanced oil recovery (EOR), will also see investment into longer term projects hit by subdued oil prices.

  • Short-term gas production will be hit by a loose LNG market. We see flat growth through from 2017 to 2021. However, we see a turnaround from 2022 as a better market outlook and gas reserves growth contribute to production.

  • Industry consolidation will see Malaysia's refining capacity and refined oil production fall between 2015 and 2019. This will offset the impact that the start-up of Petronas' RAPID project in the next decade will have on Malaysia's total refined production.

  • Although consumption...

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Malaysia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Malaysia 2019-2024)
11
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011
17
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014
19
Upstream Projects
20
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects
20
Upstream Production - Oil
26
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2013-2018)
26
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2019-2024)
26
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2019-2024)
31
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2019-2024)
34
Refining Capacity
34
Refined Oil Production
36
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2019-2024)
38
Consumption Mix
40
Gas Consumption
42
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
42
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2019-2024)
42
Falling Oil Prices A Short-Term Consumption Boon
44
Risks To Outlook
45
Trade - Oil
46
Crude Oil And Other Liquids Trade
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
46
Trade Partners
47
Refined Oil Trade
49
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
49
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
49
Refined Oil Trade Partners
50
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Malaysia 2013-2018)
51
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Malaysia 2019-2024)
52
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
53
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
53
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
53
LNG Trade
55
Trade Partners
56
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
57
Industry Risk Reward Index
57
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
57
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
58
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
58
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
60
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
60
Malaysia - Risk/Reward Index
63
Malaysia Upstream Index - Overview
63
Malaysia Upstream Index - Rewards
63
Malaysia Upstream Index - Risks
63
Malaysia Downstream Index - Overview
64
Market Overview
65
Malaysia Energy Market Overview
65
Overview/State Role
66
Licensing And Regulation
66
Government Policy
67
International Energy Relations
69
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
71
Oil Refineries
71
Table: Refineries In Malaysia
71
Oil Storage Facilities
75
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia
75
Oil Terminals/Ports
77
Oil Pipelines
78
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
79
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals
79
LNG Import Terminals
80
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities
80
Gas Pipelines
81
Competitive Landscape
83
Competitive Landscape Summary
83
Table: Key Players - Malaysian Energy Sector
84
Company Profile
85
Petronas
85
ExxonMobil
97
Shell
101
ConocoPhillips
107
Murphy Oil
111
Other Summaries
114
Regional Overview
118
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
118
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
118
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
121
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
122
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
126
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
127
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
129
Global Industry Overview
132
Oil Price Outlook
132
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
132
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
133
Appendix
140
Asia - Regional Appendix
140
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
140
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
141
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
142
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
142
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
144
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
145
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
146
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
147
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
148
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
149
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
150
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
151
Malaysia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
152
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
152
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
152
Malaysia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
153
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Malaysia 2013-2018)
153
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Malaysia 2019-2024)
154
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Malaysia 2013-2018)
155
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Malaysia 2019-2024)
156
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Malaysia 2013-2018)
158
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Malaysia 2019-2024)
158
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
159
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
160
Glossary
161
Table: Glossary Of Terms
161
Methodology
163
Industry Forecast Methodology
163
Source
165
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
165
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
167
Table: Weighting
168

The Malaysia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Malaysia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Malaysia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Malaysia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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