Malaysia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Malaysia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater exploration and production is curtailed amid low oil prices. The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts by Petronas will result in reduced production post-2020.

Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 676.8 647.6 620.3 594.5 569.6 550.9 530.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 534.8 529.4 524.1 529.4 534.7 540.0 702.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 696.9 725.0 747.0 780.8 811.4 841.6 872.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 64.5 62.6 61.3 62.2 63.1 64.3 65.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 32.5 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.8 35.7 36.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • We forecast Malaysia's crude oil production to remain on a downtrend over 2016 to 2025. Weak oil prices limit the attractiveness of boosting output, as demonstrated by Petronas' large spending cuts for the coming four years. Furthermore, we do not expect new final investment decisions in deepwater and marginal projects in the next several years given their high breakeven cost.

  • We expect refined fuels production to remain relatively stable over the coming years, rising in 2020 with the start of the 300,000b/d RAPID refinery.

  • Malaysia's oil consumption will grow at a slower rate over the next decade as a result of weakening economic growth and falling energy intensity weighing on demand. The consumption mix will remain dominated by diesel and gasoline over our forecast period.

  • With the fall in crude oil production and the coming online of the RAPID oil refinery in 2020, we forecast that Malaysia will become a net crude oil importer by 2020. The country will remain a net importer of refined products throughout our forecast period.

  • The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts by Petronas will result in reduced production post-2020.

  • New production from a pipeline of gas projects coming online during 2016-2020 will result in stagnating net gas exports over the first half of our forecast period. Thereafter net exports will decline sharply on the back of falling domestic production.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011
15
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014
17
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Risk Sharing Contracts Awarded
30
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
31
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
31
Upstream Production - Gas
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
34
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
34
Refining
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
37
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019)
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025)
40
Gas Consumption
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019)
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025)
43
Trade - Oil
44
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2020)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
46
Fuels Trade Forecasts
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
49
Latest Updates
49
Structural Trends
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
52
Industry Risk Reward Index
53
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
53
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
54
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
54
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
57
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
57
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index
59
Malaysia Upstream Index - Overview
59
Malaysia Upstream Index - Rewards
59
Malaysia Upstream Index - Risks
59
Malaysia Downstream Index - Overview
60
Market Overview
61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
61
Oil Refineries
61
Table: Refineries In Malaysia
61
Existing Refineries
62
Planned Refineries
63
Proposed Refineries
64
Oil Storage Facilities
65
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia
65
Oil Terminals/Ports
67
Oil Pipelines
68
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
69
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals
69
LNG Import Terminals
70
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities
70
Gas Pipelines
71
Malaysia Energy Market Overview
72
Regulatory Structure
72
Fiscal Regime
74
Table: Malaysia - Upstream Tax Regime
74
Licensing Regime
74
Table: Malaysia - Contracts and Licensing Regime
74
Competitive Landscape
76
Table: Key Players - Malaysian Energy Sector
77
Company Profile
78
ConocoPhillips
78
ExxonMobil
82
Murphy Oil
86
Petronas
90
Shell
101
Other Summaries
107
Regional Overview
112
Industry Trend Analysis
112
Glossary
120
Table: Glossary Of Terms
120
Methodology
122
Industry Forecast Methodology
122
Source
124
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
124
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
126
Table: Weighting
127

The Malaysia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Malaysia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Malaysia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Malaysia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.