Malaysia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Malaysia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater exploration and production is curtailed amid low oil prices. A more competitive Asian LNG market will reduce foreign gas demand in the short term.

Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, National Sources
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 647.0 675.0 663.8 647.3 642.7 643.4 641.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 545.7 534.8 535.8 455.5 409.9 410.7 410.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 623.3 635.8 648.5 661.5 674.8 688.3 698.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 64.4 64.9 63.0 61.7 62.6 63.4 64.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.2 33.5 34.5 35.4
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • In October 2015, Sweden-based Lundin Petroleum's subsidiary Lundin Malaysia has made a gas discovery at the Mengkuang-1 exploration well in licence PM307 offshore Malaysia.

  • In September 2015, Malaysian oil and gas firm Tanjung Offshore and China-based Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group have signed a partnership deal, seeking to work together in the Malaysian oil and gas exploration sector.

  • We retain our view that low oil price environment will weaken the incentives to raise production from existing fields to full capacity 2016. The rising cost of projects in Malaysia, as project types increasingly move towards more difficult developments such as deepwater and enhanced oil recovery (EOR), will also see investment into longer-term projects hit by subdued oil prices.

  • Short-term gas production will be hit by a loose LNG market. 2015 gas production is estimated at 63.0bcm, which is 3% lower than in 2014. We keep our view that lower oil prices will continue to push lower gas production until 2017. We hold a more positive longer-term outlook as a number of recent discoveries and major projects will boost the country's gas output volumes to 71.1bcm by 2024.

  • We believe that Malaysia's refining sector will undergo consolidation over the coming few years. This will push down the refining capacity from 588,000b/d in 2015 to 412,000b/d in 2017. The refining capacity is expected to receive a boost from the new Petronas' 300,000b/d RAPID petrochemicals facility, which is set for completion in the second half of 2019. This will raise the country's refining capacity to 712,000b/d.

  • We forecast both refined products consumption and gas demand growth to average 1.7% per annum between 2015 and 2024. Malaysia's refined products consumption will increase from 648,170b/d in 2015 to 752,120b/d in 2024, while domestic gas demand will rise from 32.9bcm to 38.1bcm over the same period.

  • Malaysia's oil trade will be largely shaped by the ongoing changes in the country's refining sector. Crude oil exports will see a sharp increase as Malaysia's downstream sector consolidates over the coming few years. However, the completion of the new Petronas RAPID refinery in 2020 will boost the domestic demand and push downwards the crude exports until 2024.

  • This quarter we have kept our forecast for Malaysia's gas trade. We believe the net exports will decline from 30.1bcm in 2015 to 28.3bcm in 2020 on account of rising domestic consumption and highly competitive LNG environment in Asia. We see gas exports rebounding to 33.0bcm by 2024 due to increased regional demand.

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Upstream Exploration
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Malaysia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Malaysia 2019-2024)
12
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011
18
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014
20
Upstream Projects
21
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects
21
Upstream Production - Oil
27
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2019-2024)
27
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2019-2024)
31
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2019-2024)
34
Refining Capacity
34
Refined Oil Production
36
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2019-2024)
38
Consumption Mix
40
Gas Consumption
42
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2018)
42
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2019-2024)
42
Falling Oil Prices A Short-Term Consumption Boon
44
Risks To Outlook
45
Trade - Oil
45
Crude Oil And Other Liquids Trade
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
46
Trade Partners
47
Refined Oil Trade
49
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
49
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
49
Refined Oil Trade Partners
50
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Malaysia 2013-2018)
51
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Malaysia 2019-2024)
52
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
53
LNG Trade
54
Trade Partners
55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
57
Asia RRI: Low Oil Prices And Infrastructure Bottlenecks Temper Scores
57
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
57
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
58
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
58
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
61
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
61
Malaysia - Risk/Reward Index
63
Malaysia Upstream Index - Overview
63
Malaysia Upstream Index - Rewards
63
Malaysia Upstream Index - Risks
63
Malaysia Downstream Index - Overview
64
Market Overview
65
Malaysia Energy Market Overview
65
Overview/State Role
66
Licensing And Regulation
66
Government Policy
67
International Energy Relations
69
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
71
Oil Refineries
71
Table: Refineries In Malaysia
71
Existing Refineries
72
Planned Refineries
73
Proposed Refineries
74
Oil Storage Facilities
75
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia
75
Oil Terminals/Ports
77
Oil Pipelines
78
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
79
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals
79
LNG Import Terminals
80
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities
80
Gas Pipelines
81
Competitive Landscape
83
Competitive Landscape Summary
83
Table: Key Players - Malaysian Energy Sector
84
Company Profile
85
Petronas
85
ExxonMobil
97
Shell
101
ConocoPhillips
107
Murphy Oil
111
Other Summaries
115
Regional Overview
119
Asia Oil & Gas Regional Overview
119
Global Industry Overview
124
Global Energy Market Overview
124
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
124
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
127
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
128
Appendix
130
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
130
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
130
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
131
Asia - Regional Appendix
132
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
132
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
133
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
134
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
135
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
136
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
137
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
138
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
139
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
140
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
141
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
142
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
143
Malaysia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
144
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
144
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
144
Malaysia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
145
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Malaysia 2013-2018)
145
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Malaysia 2019-2024)
146
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Malaysia 2013-2018)
147
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Malaysia 2019-2024)
148
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Malaysia 2013-2018)
149
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Malaysia 2019-2024)
150
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2013-2018)
151
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Malaysia 2019-2024)
151
Glossary
152
Table: Glossary Of Terms
152
Methodology
154
Industry Forecast Methodology
154
Source
156
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
156
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
158
Table: Weighting
159

The Malaysia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Malaysia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Malaysia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Malaysia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.