BMI View: We hold a bullish outlook for Malaysia's pharmaceutical market over our forecast period. We believe the government's commitment to expanding healthcare access coupled with the country's growing population and disease burden will drive medicine demand in the coming years. Furthermore, the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement - after years of negotiation and uncertainty - will work to strengthen multinational interest in the market, particularly patented drug manufacturers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: MYR7.88bn (USD2.02bn) in 2015 to MYR8.59bn (USD2.05bn) in 2016; +9.0% in local currency and +1.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: MYR45.85bn (USD11.73bn) in 2015 to MYR49.38bn (USD11.77bn) in 2016; +7.7% in local currency and +0.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||2.206||2.015||2.048||2.323||2.606||2.883||3.167|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.67||0.70||0.71||0.72||0.73||0.75||0.76|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.9||17.2||17.4||17.6||17.7||17.8||17.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.022||11.727||11.772||13.228||14.734||16.232||17.789|
Malaysia's Pharmaceutical RRI score for Q216 is 59.0 out of 100, improving on the previous quarter's score of 54.5. It makes the country the eighth most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region, just below Singapore (59.7) but above India (51.8). Malaysia scores above the regional average for every indicator of our matrix.
In February 2016, Malaysia signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement along with 11 other participating nations after years of tough negotiations.
In December 2015, the Ministry of Health reported that Malaysians are consuming 30% more fat than the required amount, leading to 8.5mn overweight citizens, which is resulting in increased numbers of weight associated disease being diagnosed.
In November 2015, Malaysia-based Pantai Holdings opened its MYR400mn (USD92.71mn) 300-bed tertiary hospital and has plans to expend its operations to the east coast states of the peninsula in a bid to make private healthcare services available nationwide.
The Malaysian Ministry of Health is to continue the study suitability of the world's first dengue vaccine by Sanofi Pasteur, Dengvaxia, for use in the country despite Mexican authorities approving it for market use.
BMI Economic View
Fears of provisions in the TPP undermining Malaysia's national development strategy are unfounded as the country has managed to obtain significant concessions, with the agreed on bumiputera clauses and safeguards indicating the country's national development strategy will largely remain intact.
BMI Political View
The Malaysian Senate on December 22 approved the National Security Council (NSC) Bill 2015, which gives more power to authorities to tackle violent extremism. The controversial security bill has drawn criticism from civil rights groups, who fear that the bill would threaten human rights and democratic values.
The Malaysia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Malaysia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Malaysia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.