BMI View: Although the 2016 health budget assigned to the ministry of health comes in lower than in 2015, we believe the government remains committed to expanding healthcare access. The construction of more health clinics under the 1Malaysia brand and the increased number of zero-rated drugs under the Goods and Service Tax will help make medicines and services more affordable for low-income patients. However, the fall of the ringgit may have a negative impact drug costs in the coming months as well as hospitalisation fees in the longer term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: MYR7.22bn (USD2.21bn) in 2014 to MYR7.88bn (USD1.97bn) in 2015; +9.2% in local currency and -10.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: MYR42.62bn (USD13.02bn) in 2014 to MYR45.85bn (USD11.46bn) in 2015; +7.6% in local currency and -12.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Malaysia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q116 is 54.5 out of 100, making it the eighth most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region, just below Singapore (59.7).
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||2.096||2.206||1.970||2.147||2.366||2.622||2.883|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.67||0.67||0.70||0.71||0.72||0.73||0.75|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.7||16.9||17.2||17.4||17.6||17.7||17.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||12.584||13.022||11.463||12.346||13.479||14.829||16.232|
In November 2015, Malaysia's International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed stated that the country would fix a five-year limit on data exclusivity for biologics under the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.
In November 2015, India-based start-up Practo entered the Malaysian market, bringing its two products - Practo Ray and Practo Search - into the country. Practo's entry into Malaysia means consumers will now be able to look for doctors across over 350 clinics and 500 doctors listed on the platform.
According to the ASEAN Costs in Oncology (ACTION) study conducted by the George Institute for Global Health, approximately 19% of cancer patients in Malaysia have found to be withdrawing from treatment due to their inability to pay medical bills.
The zero-rating of 8,630 types of drugs under the Goods and Services Tax, which will come into effect on January 1 2016, is expected to reduce the cost of medication in private hospitals and clinics in Malaysia. Among the controlled drugs in the list are those to treat cancer, heart disease, diabetes and high blood pressure.
The health budget assigned to the health ministry in 2016 is MYR23.03bn (USD5.36bn) or 8.6% of the total budget, which is MYR269mn (USD62.16mn) less than its 2015 allocation.
In September 2015, the Malaysian government announced it would build 39 more clinics under the 1Malaysia brand to deliver cheaper services to the country's bottom 40% income earners.
BMI Economic View
Malaysia's Q315 real GDP grew by 4.7% y-o-y, reflecting the economy's slowest growth rate in nine quarters. We maintain our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 real GDP growth to come in at 4.7% and 4.5% respectively, as we expect the both the domestic and external sectors to face continued headwinds over the coming quarters.
BMI Political View
Malaysia's new opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition is significantly weaker than its predecessor, suggesting that the coalition will struggle to present a united front in Malaysia's next election to be held by August 2018 and will eventually break up.
The Malaysia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Malaysia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Malaysia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.