BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Malaysia ' s pharma ceutical and healthcare ma rket. The evolution of the country ' s medical tourism sector will see the agglomeration of private healthcare providers along key geographic hubs. Government efforts to develop Johor, Melaka and Penang into key centres will perpetuate this trend. This will be supported by private healthcare providers, the majority of whom have articulated their aim of leveraging the growth of medical tourism. The establishment of these places as hubs will shape the sales force strategies for multinational drugmakers as international patients represent a segment that has, on average, spent more than locals on healthcare.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: MYR7.88bn (USD2.02bn) in 2015 to MYR8.58bn (USD2.09bn) in 2016; +8.9% in local currency and +3.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: MYR49.31bn (USD12.63bn) in 2015 to MYR54.40bn (USD13.27bn) in 2016; +10.3% in local currency and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Domestic companies, Local press, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||2.210||2.020||2.090||2.350||2.620||2.880||3.160|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.67||0.68||0.69||0.70||0.71||0.72||0.74|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.2||16.0||15.8||15.6||15.4||15.3||15.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.630||12.630||13.270||15.070||16.990||18.890||20.960|
Malaysia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q416 is 59.0 out of 100, unchanged from the previous quarter's score. The country is ranked as the eighth most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region, just below Singapore (59) but above New Zealand (51).
In August 2016, Malaysia's Health Director Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said that the country needs around 3,000 (currently around 500) family medicine specialists to be placed in public clinics and hospitals in an effort to improve primary healthcare services.
In August 2016, the Malaysian Health Minister urged patients with unutilised prescribed medicines to return them to clinics and hospitals in an effort to reduce wastage.
Also in August, the Health Minister claimed that the number of outpatients in government hospitals and clinics increased by 8.0%, from 28.0mn last year to 31.4mn, for the first five months of 2016.
According to the Deputy Healthcare Minister in June 2016, Malaysia is short of 900 specialist doctors in emergency medicine and called upon more public and private universities to offer the course.
In June 2016, the Malaysian government announced its plans to establish a medical hub in Iskandar, with hopes of developing a niche in fields such as cancer, cardiology, urology, women's health and paediatrics.
BMI Economic View
Ongoing weakness in the Chinese economy and domestic headwinds will continue to weigh on Malaysia's economic growth. However, we expect accommodative monetary and fiscal policies to lend some support to the economy, and we forecast 2016 real GDP growth to come in at 4.5%.
BMI Political View
Malaysia's ruling BN coalition's convincing victory during the two by-elections held on June 18 indicates that embattled PM Najib Razak still holds a considerable degree of support from the electorate. As such, we maintain our view that Najib will continue to consolidate his position and is likely to remain as PM until the next general election in 2018.
The Malaysia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Malaysia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Malaysia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Malaysia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Malaysian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.