BMI View : The Malaysian power sector is set to grow 4.8% in 2015, following a disappointing expansion of 3.7% in 2014. Growth should accelerate further after 2015 as most of the major thermal projects being developed in Malaysia for completion after 2015 are on schedule.
We forecast electricity generation in Malaysia to grow by 4.8% in 2015, versus an underwhelming expansion of 3.7% in 2014. We also expect growth to pick up further from 2016 onwards, on the back of strong thermal and non-hydropower renewable. We have maintained our long-term forecasts for electricity generation in Malaysia as the major projects we have incorporated into our forecasts after 2015 remain on track. We forecast electricity generation in Malaysia to average 5.2% growth per annum between between 2017-2019, before levelling off at a longer-term growth rate of approximately 4.6% through to 2024.
Key Trends And Developments
We believe Malaysia's nuclear agenda is overly ambitious given the high development costs, widespread public opposition and the regional geopolitical implications of developing nuclear capacity. Nevertheless, Malaysia will continue to push for domestic nuclear power, based on the country's desire to diversify the power mix away from hydrocarbons and boost long-term energy security.
Following the collapse of global oil prices in Q414, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) lowered its electricity tariff to reflect lower input prices. The fall in oil prices has likely shelved the expected hikes in electricity tariffs in Malaysia for the time being, although this could change in the event oil prices rebound over the medium term.
The country's energy sector is set to become more competitive, following the Electricity Commission's decision to hold a new power generation tender exercise to replace Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), with first generation Independent Power Producers expiring in 2016/17.
Malaysian power utility Tenaga Nasional plans to buy local...
The Malaysia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Malaysia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Malaysia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Malaysia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).