Malaysia Real Estate Report

Published 29 December 2014

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Malaysia Real Estate Report

BMI View: Malaysia's commercial real estate market benefits from the country's location in South East Asia, as well as the government's welcoming attitude to foreign investment and the developed and fairly transparent nature of the business environment. The country has a developed real estate investment trust (REIT) market, although there is room for this to expand. Indeed over the medium term we see increasing interest in Malaysian commercial real estate from international investors, as well as increasing investment overseas by Malaysian firms.

Over the short and medium term we have some concerns about the Malaysian economy. Although we forecast a good rate of GDP growth, at 5.8%, in 2014, for the rest of our forecast period, to 2018, we see growth slowing to as little as 4.1% a year. Monetary tightening and potential interest rate rises could affect domestic demand, and with exports equating to more than 90% of GDP, the economy is vulnerable to any decline in demand from key export destinations. However, in the longer term domestic consumption is set to rise, and as economic links with the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) improve, so too should demand for commercial real estate.

There are fears of oversupply in the office real estate market, which in the short term could act to keep rental rates down. However, demand remains good, particularly for premium space in city centres, and we believe that the outlook for the office real estate market is good. Further integration between Malaysia and its ASEAN neighbours will boost demand for office space in the long term, while a rebalancing of the economy away from export-dependence should make it less vulnerable to external shocks.

Malaysia's retail real estate sector has good long-term prospects, as consumer spending is being driven by a young, affluent and increasingly urban population. The country's retail landscape has changed significantly over the last 10 years or so, but there are...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Industry Forecast
15
Office
17
Table: Forecast Office Rental Rates, 2015-2016 (USD per square metre per month)
18
Table: Forecast Office Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
18
Retail
18
Table: Forecast Retail Rental Rates, 2015-2016 (USD per sq m per month)
19
Table: Forecast Retail Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
19
Industrial
19
Table: Forecast Industrial Rental Rates, 2015-2016 (USD per sq m per month)
20
Table: Forecast Industrial Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%)
20
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
21
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Malaysia 2012-2017)
21
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Malaysia 2018-2023)
22
Macroeconomic Forecast
33
Economic Analysis
33
Risks To Outlook
35
Table: Economic Activity (Malaysia 2009-2018)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Asia - Real Estate Risk/Reward Index
37
Malaysia - Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
39
Market Overview
40
Kuala Lumpur
42
Johor Bahru
43
Kota Kinabalu
43
Office
44
Table: Historical Rental Rates, 2013-2014 (USD per square metre per month)
46
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 (%)
46
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114
47
Retail
48
Table: Historical Rental Rates, 2013-2014 (USD per square metre per month)
51
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 (%)
52
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114
52
Industrial
53
Table: Historical Rental Rates, 2013-2014 (USD per square metre per month)
55
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 (%)
55
Table: Terms Of Contract/Leases, H114
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Office
58
Retail
58
Industrial
59
Company Profile
60
IJM Corporation Berhad
60
Malaysian Resources Corporation Bhd
64
WCT Holdings Bhd
66
Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd
69
Demographic Forecast
71
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malaysia 1990-2025)
72
Table: Key Population Ratios (Malaysia 1990-2025)
72
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malaysia 1990-2025)
73
Table: Population By Age Group (Malaysia 1990-2025)
73
Table: Population By Age Group % (Malaysia 1990-2025)
74
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sources
77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
78
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators
79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
80

The Malaysia Real Estate Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Malaysia Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Malaysia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our company profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Industry Forecasts Outlook

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry.

Indicators Include:

  • Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (USD per square metre and local currency per square metre).
  • Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (‘000); real growth (%).
  • economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Real Estate Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc