BMI View : Malaysia's main ports will see volume growth broadly in a 2-4% range this year, lagging slightly behind the growth of the wider economy. Port Klang and Port Tanjung Pelepas continue to benefit from expansion projects and developments that have been completed over the last two years.
We are maintaining our existing outlook for the Malaysian economy, which sees GDP growth decelerating from 5.8% in 2014 to 4.2% in 2015. This comes on the back of various factors. Data still coming through from last year shows exports performed particularly strongly, lifted by good demand for electronics and semi conductors. But going into H214, there were signs of weakening consumer demand caused by the combination of monetary tightening and high levels of household debt. Coming into 2015, the fall in international oil prices is an important external factor. We believe the net effect is marginally negative, as they lead to lower oil sector production and investment, currency depreciation, and lower government spending. But there are positive effects as well, with the non-oil economy making some savings, and non-oil exporters benefitting from a more competitive exchange rate. Looking to the long term, we expect growth to average 4.2% in 2016-2024. While this is below the 5.1% rate seen over the past decade, this largely reflects lower growth in the working age population, while labour productivity growth is set to rise. The Malaysian economy is proceeding along a process of economic rebalancing, moving away from export-driven growth and more towards domestic private consumption.
Headline Industry Data
The real value of Malaysia's total trade will rise by 4.0% in 2015, marginally down on the 4.7% rate estimated for 2014.
Total cargo volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 2.4% to 222.5mn tonnes in 2015, while volume at the port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by 3.7% to 131.02mn tonnes.
2015 box traffic at Port Klang is projected to rise by 4.0% to reach 11.388mn...
The Malaysia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.
BMI's Malaysia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Malaysia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysian shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.