Mauritius Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Mauritius Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Mauritius Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • We forecast real GDP growth of 3.9% in Mauritius in 2016, strengthening to 4.2% in 2017. This growth will be driven primarily by investment into major infrastructure projects, and ongoing efforts to diversify the economy away from the traditional sectors of sugar exports and tourism into a knowledge economy, taking advantage of its location in the centre of the Indian Ocean to attract business from Africa and Asia. The retail sector will provide some support to growth thanks to low inflation rates and loose monetary policy.

  • The Bank of Mauritius will cut rates in June as low inflation will enable it to try and stimulate fragile economic growth. There will be no further cuts through the second half of the year, and this will mark the end of the bank's cutting cycle.

  • Mauritius will maintain a wide current account deficit in 2016 and 2017. As this will be driven by the development of growth-supporting infrastructure projects, we do not expect the country's balance of payments dynamics to be of major concern for investors.

  • High youth unemployment rates raise the risk of further terrorist incidents in Mauritius over the coming years. High levels of conflict are very unlikely, but more events could jeopardise the vital tourism sector.

Key Risks

  • While we expect the eurozone recovery to strengthen in 2016, a significant deterioration in conditions would pose notable risks to our growth outlook given Mauritius's exposure to the region. France in particular gives cause for concern given its macroeconomic weaknesses and political failure to deal with them.

  • The recent uncovering of corruption scandals could harm the credibility of both the political class and the financial sector, both critical for the country's economic outlook.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Mauritius 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Nominal GDP, USDbn 12.6 11.6 11.8 12.7
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.6 3.4 3.9 4.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.2 0.7 1.0 2.5
Exchange rate MUR/USD, eop 31.75 35.90 35.80 36.40
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.3 -4.4 -5.0 -5.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -5.5 -6.6 -6.4 -6.1
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Construction And Retail Will Drive Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Local Debt Will Fund Budget Deficit
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
12
Smart Cities Will Keep Current Account Deficit Wide
12
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
15
Monetary Policy
15
June Cut Will Mark End Of Cutting Cycle
15
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Mauritian Economy To 2025
19
Service Industries To Drive Long-Term Growth
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
More Terrorist Incidents Would Threaten Tourism
24
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
27
Global Macro Outlook
27
Summer Of Risk
27
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
27
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
28
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
29
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
31

Assess your risk exposure in Mauritius with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Mauritius with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report