Mauritius Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Mauritius Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The outlook for economic growth in Mauritius is far more precarious than it was three months ago, and in the wake of the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit), we now anticipate that real GDP growth will come in at just 3.2% in 2017, compared to our previous projection of 4.2%. The island nation is heavily exposed to both the UK and the EU, where we also expect that post-Brexit turmoil will result in slower growth.

  • Mauritius will see only a slight reduction in its budget deficit over the next several years. We expect that the government will seek to support the central bank's accommodative monetary policy through growth-generating spending. Even so, this will be limited by lacklustre revenue collection growth and concerns over increasing the debt burden.

  • The Mauritian rate-cutting cycle has further to go before the end of 2016. The Brexit vote will further jeopardise already weak demand, prompting the bank to seek to stimulate the economy.

  • We expect that Mauritius and the five partner states of the East African Community (EAC) will pursue greater political and economic ties over the coming years, especially in the wake of the island state's renegotiation of its trade deal with India. This will mean that the country will skew more towards Sub-Saharan Africa as it looks for growth markets to offset the likely loss of business and investment from India.

Key Risks

  • Should UK and EU growth slow more rapidly than we currently anticipate in the wake of the Brexit vote, then Mauritius would see substantially slower growth than we currently anticipate.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Mauritius 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.2
Nominal GDP, USDbn 12.6 11.6 11.8 12.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5
Exchange rate MUR/USD, eop 31.75 35.90 35.80 36.40
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.3 -3.5 -3.1 -3.1
Current account balance, % of GDP -5.5 -3.6 -6.5 -7.4
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Construction And Retail Will Drive Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Local Debt Will Fund Budget Deficit
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
12
Smart Cities Will Keep Current Account Deficit Wide
12
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
15
Monetary Policy
15
June Cut Will Mark End Of Cutting Cycle
15
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Mauritian Economy To 2025
19
Service Industries To Drive Long-Term Growth
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
More Terrorist Incidents Would Threaten Tourism
24
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
27
Global Macro Outlook
27
Summer Of Risk
27
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
27
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
28
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
29
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
31

Assess your risk exposure in Mauritius with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Mauritius with confidence.

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