Mauritius Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Mauritius Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • We forecast modest real GDP growth in Mauritius in 2016 and 2017, bolstered by falling oil prices, expansionary fiscal policy, and a recovery in investment. We forecast growth of 4.2% and 4.4% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, compared 3.2% in 2015.

  • Risks to political stability should be limited in the short-term, as the recently-elected government overseas a period of accelerating economic activity.

  • The government is set to put an emphasis on spurring economic growth ahead of fiscal consolidation, meaning an increase in the budget deficit is likely in the short term. This is unlikely to pose a serious threat to broader economic stability in itself, though higher deficits and rising public debt will leave the country more vulnerable to external shocks or shifts in investor sentiment.

Key Risks

  • While we expect the eurozone recovery to strengthen in 2016, a significant deterioration in conditions would pose notable risks to our growth outlook given Mauritius's exposure to the region. France in particular gives cause for concern given its macroeconomic weaknesses and political failure to deal with them.

  • A lower than expected growth outturn over 2016 would increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the central bank.

  • The recent uncovering of corruption scandals could harm the credibility of both the political class and the financial sector, both critical for the country's economic outlook.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Mauritius 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.6 3.4 4.2 4.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 12.6 11.6 11.9 13.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.4
Exchange rate MUR/USD, eop 31.75 35.90 35.80 36.40
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.2 -4.4 -5.0 -5.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -5.5 -6.6 -6.4 -6.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects To Boost Growth
8
TABLE: INCENTIVES FOR THE SMART CITY PROJECTS
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Widening Deficits As Fiscal Policy Moves Expansionary
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Wide C/A Deficits On The Horizon
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS 2015
15
Monetary Policy
16
Weak Global Outlook To Prompt Rate Cut In June
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Mauritian Economy To 2025
19
Service Sector Drives Long-Term Growth
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Increasing Economic Relations With China And India
24
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
27
Global Macro Outlook
27
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
27
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
27
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
28
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
28
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
29
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
31

Assess your risk exposure in Mauritius with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Mauritius with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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