Mauritius Country Risk Report

Published 25 February 2015 | Quarterly

  • 26 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Mauritius Country Risk Report

Core Views:

  • We forecast that real GDP growth in Mauritius will accelerate in 2015, bolstered by falling oil prices and a recovery in investment. Our forecast of 4.6% growth is a significant upward revision from our previous forecast of 4.2%. This reflects the changes wrought by the halving in the price of oil and the grand development plans being laid out by the newly elected government which came to power in December 2014. It is also far stronger than the preliminary 3.5% growth the Mauritian statistics office has announced for 2014 - which is in line with our estimates - and reflects the strongest expansion rate since 2008.

  • We forecast a cumulative hike of 50 basis points to Mauritius's Key Repo Rate in 2015. Although inflation remains low, concerns over saving levels will see rates raised, especially as real GDP growth picks up.

  • We forecast that Mauritius's current account deficit will narrow to 5.2% of GDP in 2015, from an estimated 6.2% of GDP in 2014, and project that the shortfall will continue to diminish over the coming years. As a net oil importer, the fall in the global oil price will reduce the trade deficit, and we expect that a recovering tourism sector will serve to keep the services account in credit.

  • A new government has been elected in Mauritius since our last quarterly report. The winning grouping was the Alliance Lepep, which fought the snap poll on a platform of maintaining the status quo, at least with regards the constitutional reforms being proposed by their political opponents. The alternative would have seen much more political power placed in the hands of the president, which is currently a largely ceremonial role. The new government has proposed a number of populist measures, although we maintain that the change in government will not mean any radical departure from the established centric course plotted by the previous government.

Major Forecast Changes

Our 2015 real GDP growth forecast has been upgraded from last...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Electoral Reform Becoming Defining Election Issue
8
Table: 2010 Legislative Election Results
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
9
SWOT Analysis
9
BMI Economic Risk Index
9
Economic Activity
10
Tourism Recovery Will Fuel Growth In 2015
10
Table: Economic Activity
10
Monetary Policy
11
Cumulative 50bps Hike In 2015
11
Table: Monetary Policy
11
Exchange Rate Policy
12
MUR: Positive Fundamentals Will Outweigh Ominous Technicals
12
Table: BMI Currency Forecast
12
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
15
The Mauritian Economy To 2023
15
Service Industries To Drive Long-Term Growth
15
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
19
Global Outlook
19
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns
19
Table: Global Assumptions
19
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
20
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
20
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
21

The Mauritius Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Mauritius. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Mauritius's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Mauritius's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Mauritius's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Mauritius, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Mauritius Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Mauritius' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Mauritius through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Mauritius Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Mauritius and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Mauritius, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Mauritius over the next 5-years?

BMI's Mauritius country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Mauritius Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Mauritius.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Mauritius's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Mauritius’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Mauritius's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Mauritius?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Mauritius against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Mauritius’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express