MENA Mining Report

Published 25 August 2015

  • 70 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
MENA Mining Report

BMI View: T he mining sector of the Middle East and North Africa will see strong growth in over the coming year s, especially given easing sanctions on Iran . With low base effects, governmental will to increase non-oil revenues and significant resources it appears the region is set for strong growth. We highlight Turkey and Northern Iraq as key areas for growth. That said, the region will remain peripheral in the global mining sector as it continues to underperform due to political instability in much of the region.

The key issue in the Middle East's mining sector presently is Iran's ongoing negotiations with Western powers. Our core scenario is for sanctions to be eased from Q116 which will have be a game changer for the country's beleaguered mining industry and could make the country a key centre of global mining investment in the coming years.

Iran To Remain Out Front
Middle East - Mining Industry Value (USDbn)
National Sources, BMI

The key area for growth in the MENA region will be in gold. Although we are forecasting lower average gold prices over the coming quarters, we expect prices to remain elevated by historical standards. Given the relatively low cash costs for gold production, as well as low base effects, we expect to see substantial growth rates over the coming years.

The majority of capacity additions in phosphates coming years will be coming from Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia began diammonium phosphate (DAP) production in 2011 and will reach the steady-state production rate of 3mnt (mn tonnes) DAP by 2015. The Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) will also be adding significant new capacity to the market in 2016. As producers from Saudi Arabia and Morocco generally sit on the left side of the cost curve, some high-cost capacity (typically Chinese producers), who do not have access to lower-cost rock may be displaced.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Mining: Impact Will Be Felt Only In Long Term
10
Egypt: Improving Political Stability To Bolster Mining Investment
14
Table: Egypt - Select Mining Projects
14
Table: Egypt - Gold Production
15
Turkey- Growth Story Despite Risks
15
Coal Boom
16
Gold Rush
18
Solid Base Metal Growth
20
Regulatory Overhaul Provides Tailwinds
21
Labour Unrest Due To Poor Safety Constitutes A Downside Risk
22
Table: Turkey: Mine Production Historic Data & Forecasts
22
Oman: Mining To Gather Momentum On Diversification
22
Table: Oman - Metals & Mining Output Historical Data
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: MENA - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
27
Regulatory Development
30
Commodities Forecast
33
Commodity Strategy
33
Ferrous Metals
33
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016
33
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017
35
Non-Ferrous Metals
38
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally
38
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
40
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
41
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
42
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
45
Iron Ore: Prices To Stabilize In Years Ahead
45
Table: BMI Iron Ore Price Forecast
45
Table: Global - Iron Ore Production Forecasts
51
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: MENA - Largest Listed Mining & Metals Companies
53
Company Profile
55
Kasbah Resources
55
Table: Kasbah Resources - Financial Performance
57
Maya Gold & Silver
58
Table: Maya Gold & Silver - Financial Results
60
Regional Overview
61
MENA Overview
61
Saudi & Iran: Government Estimates Overblown
62
Table: Largest Mining Projects In MENA
63
Egypt: Political Risks To Ease
63
Iraq: A Bright Spot In The Region
63
Global Industry Overview
65
Global Overview
65
2
68
3
69
4
71
5
73
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sources
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
78

The MENA Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's MENA Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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