MENA Mining Report

Published 25 August 2015

  • 70 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
MENA Mining Report

BMI View: T he mining sector of the Middle East and North Africa will see strong growth in over the coming year s, especially given easing sanctions on Iran . With low base effects, governmental will to increase non-oil revenues and significant resources it appears the region is set for strong growth. We highlight Turkey and Northern Iraq as key areas for growth. That said, the region will remain peripheral in the global mining sector as it continues to underperform due to political instability in much of the region.

The key issue in the Middle East's mining sector presently is Iran's ongoing negotiations with Western powers. Our core scenario is for sanctions to be eased from Q116 which will have be a game changer for the country's beleaguered mining industry and could make the country a key centre of global mining investment in the coming years.

Iran To Remain Out Front
Middle East - Mining Industry Value (USDbn)
National Sources, BMI

The key area for growth in the MENA region will be in gold. Although we are forecasting lower average gold prices over the coming quarters, we expect prices to remain elevated by historical standards. Given the relatively low cash costs for gold production, as well as low base effects, we expect to see substantial growth rates over the coming years.

The majority of capacity additions in phosphates coming years will be coming from Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia began diammonium phosphate (DAP) production in 2011 and will reach the steady-state production rate of 3mnt (mn tonnes) DAP by 2015. The Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) will also be adding significant new capacity to the market in 2016. As producers from Saudi Arabia and Morocco generally sit on the left side of the cost curve, some high-cost capacity (typically Chinese producers), who do not have access to lower-cost rock may be displaced.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Sanction Relief: Growth Impact Only In Long Term
Egypt: Improving Political Stability To Bolster Mining Investment
Table: Egypt - Select Mining Projects
Table: Egypt - Gold Production
Turkey: Growth Story Despite Risks
Coal Boom
Gold Rush
Solid Base Metal Growth
Regulatory Overhaul Provides Tailwinds
Labour Unrest Due To Poor Safety Constitutes A Downside Risk
Table: Turkey: Mine Production Historic Data & Forecasts
Oman: Mining To Gather Momentum On Diversification
Table: Oman - Metals & Mining Output Historical Data
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: MENA - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Global - Metals: Lower Costs And Weak Demand To Anchor Prices
Metal Price Weakness: Chinese Equity Slump & US Dollar Strength
US Dollar Strength To Anchor Weak Metal Prices
Steel: Oversupply To Subdue Prices Until 2017
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Market Balance: Surplus To Persist Until 2017
Table: Steel Forecasts (2015-2019)
Competitive Landscape
Morocco- Remains The Stand-Out
Table: MENA - Largest Listed Mining & Metals Companies
Company Profile
Kasbah Resources
Table: Kasbah Resources - Financial Performance
Maya Gold & Silver
Table: Maya Gold & Silver - Financial Results
Regional Overview
MENA: Growth Bolstered By Easing Political Risks
Saudi & Iran: Government Estimates Overblown
Table: Largest Mining Projects In MENA
Egypt: Political Risks To Ease
Iraq: A Bright Spot In The Region
Global Industry Overview
Global Mining: 2015 Key Themes Revisited
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline
Theme: US Dollar Strength
Iron Ore Consolidation & Majors Share To Increase
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue
2015's Standouts
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The MENA Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's MENA Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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