BMI View: While we expect solid growth for the Mexican agricultural sector out to the end of our forecast period in 2019, growth will be weaker than in previous years. Consumer demand growth will slow, particularly in key areas such as sugar and corn, where per capita consumption is already high. Competitiveness is also an issue, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar sector.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Corn production growth 201 3 /1 4 to 2018/19: 9.3 % to 25.0mn tonnes. There is potential for Mexico to significantly increase its grains production over the coming years, though growth will be restricted as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow considerably, and use of genetically modified seeds remains limited.
Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 11.3 % to 4.8mn tonnes. Sugar consumption growth will slow over the long term due to high base effects and increasing health consciousness in the country in the wake of high obesity rates. The one peso tax added to soft drinks prices in January 2014 is one of the first steps towards this.
Coffee production growth to 2013/14 to 2018/19: 14.5 % to 4.4mn bags. Agricultural techniques have improved in recent years and local and national government programmes are helping to improve infrastructure and education, which are likely to help boost production. However, growth will be largely due to base effects.
2015 real GDP growth: 2 . 8 % (up from 2.1% in 2014).
Consumer price index (average): 3. 6 % in 2015 (down from 4.0% in 2014).
Industry Trends And Developments
Mexican corn output will moderately decline in the upcoming 2015/16 season, as low corn prices will lead to stagnation in the area devoted to the grain, while yields will decline y-o-y as fewer agricultural inputs (such as fertiliser) will be used owing to low farmer incomes. We believe that corn output...
The Mexico Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.