BMI View: We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4 2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years , but we see positive trends in domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.
We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020.
We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork, whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.
The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016, with domestic cheese demand and supply outpacing growth in the liquid milk and butter sectors.
Coffee production will be severely hurt after years of being crippled by roya rust. We forecast another year of significant declines, with coffee yields dropping by another 21.4% to 2.5mn 60 kg bags.
Rising per capita incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 and over the course of our forecast period.
The European Union is conducting a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico relating to organic produce. It is suggested that the European Union is looking to acquire more organic produce from the Latin American country to feed growing demand. Mexico has a large area of over 25,500 hectares dedicated to organic produce, with organic production totalling over 104,400 tonnes. The European Union accounts for over 40% of the global organic produce consumption market, trailing the United States (at 43%) and Mexico is looking to benefit from these negotiations to expand the reach of its dynamic agricultural sector.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI Calculation/FAO|
The Mexico Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.