Mexico Agribusiness Report

Published 26 May 2015

  • 108 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Mexico Agribusiness Report

BMI View: While we expect solid growth for the Mexican agricultural sector out to our forecast period to 2019, growth will be weaker than in previous years. Consumer demand growth will slow, particularly in key areas such as sugar and corn, where per capita consumption is already high. Competitiveness is also an issue, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar sector. This said, Mexico's agricultural industries will be forced to expand over the long term as consumption trends dictate.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 9.3% to 25.0mn tonnes. There is potential for Mexico to significantly increase its grains production over the coming years, though growth will be restricted as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow considerably, and use of genetically modified seeds remains limited.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 11.3% to 4.8mn tonnes. Sugar consumption growth will slow over the long term due to high base effects and increasing health consciousness in the country in the wake of high obesity rates. The one peso tax added to soft drinks prices in January 2014 is one of the first step towards this.

  • Coffee production growth to 2018/19: 14.5% to 4.4mn bags. Agricultural techniques have improved in recent years, and local and national government programmes are helping to improve infrastructure and education, which are likely to help boost production. However, growth is largely due to base effects.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 3.3% (up from 2.1% in 2014).

  • Consumer price index (average): 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015 (down from 4.0% in 2014).

Industry Trends And Developments

Mexican corn output will moderately decline in the upcoming 2015/16 season, as low corn prices will lead to stagnation of the area devoted to the grain, while yields will decline y-o-y as fewer agricultural inputs (such as fertiliser) will be used owing to low...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
16
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
16
Sugar Outlook
18
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
19
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
26
Dairy Outlook
27
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
28
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
29
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
29
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
30
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
31
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
31
Coffee Outlook
32
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
33
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
34
Livestock Outlook
36
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
37
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
37
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
38
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
39
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
39
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Mexico 2009-2014)
39
Commodities Price Analysis
41
Monthly Softs Strategy
41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
50
Monthly Grains Strategy
51
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
58
Upstream Analysis
59
Americas GM Outlook
59
Americas Machinery Outlook
66
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
68
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
73
Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Downstream Analysis
78
Food
78
Food Consumption
78
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2019)
79
Confectionery
79
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2019)
80
Prepared/Canned Food
81
Meat
82
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Mexico 2014-2019)
82
Fish
83
Oils And Fats
83
Pasta
83
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
84
Dairy
84
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
84
Baked Products
85
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
86
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Mexico 2014-2019)
86
Drink
87
Hot Drinks
87
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
87
Alcoholic Drinks
89
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
89
Soft Drinks
91
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Mexico 2014-2019)
91
Mass Grocery Retail
93
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
94
Regional Overview
95
Competitive Landscape
100
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
100
Demographic Forecast
101
Demographic Outlook
101
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
102
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
102
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Sector-Specific Methodology
107

The Mexico Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%