BMI View: We have made some minor forecast adjustments in our Q2 2016 Mexican agribusiness report update. We retain our positive outlook for various segments of the industry till th en end of our forecast period in 2020. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years but we foresee positive trends in domestic production and consumption of the dairy sector, livestock sector and coffee segment. We hold a subdued forecast for the grains market due to corn production volatility. Rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.
We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 7.8% in 2015/16 to reach 23.5mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates of under 1% to 2020.
We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork whereas higher cost will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.
The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016 with domestic cheese demand and supply outpacing growth in liquid milk and butter sectors.
Rising per capital incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 and beyond, over the course of our forecast period.
The European Union is conducting a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico relating to organic produce. It is suggested that the European Union is looking to acquire more organic produce from the Latin American country to feed a growing demand. Mexico has a large of over 25,500 hectares dedicated to organic produce with organic production totalling over 104,400 tonnes. The European Union accounts for over 40% of the global organic produce consumption market, trailing the United States (at 43%) and Mexico is looking to benefit from these negotiations to expand the reach of its dynamic agricultural sector.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
The Mexico Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.