Mexico Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Mexico Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4 2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years , but we see positive trends in domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts

  • We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020.

  • We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork, whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

  • The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016, with domestic cheese demand and supply outpacing growth in the liquid milk and butter sectors.

  • Coffee production will be severely hurt after years of being crippled by roya rust. We forecast another year of significant declines, with coffee yields dropping by another 21.4% to 2.5mn 60 kg bags.

  • Rising per capita incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 and over the course of our forecast period.

Industry Developments

The European Union is conducting a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico relating to organic produce. It is suggested that the European Union is looking to acquire more organic produce from the Latin American country to feed growing demand. Mexico has a large area of over 25,500 hectares dedicated to organic produce, with organic production totalling over 104,400 tonnes. The European Union accounts for over 40% of the global organic produce consumption market, trailing the United States (at 43%) and Mexico is looking to benefit from these negotiations to expand the reach of its dynamic agricultural sector.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI Calculation/FAO
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Livestock Outlook
11
Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption & Trade Outlook
12
Table: Risks to Outlook
13
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
14
Sugar Outlook
16
Table: Mexico - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
16
Table: Risks to Outlook
17
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
19
Coffee Outlook
20
Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
20
Table: Risks to Outlook
21
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
22
Dairy Outlook
23
Table: Mexico Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
24
Table: Risks to Outlook
24
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
26
Grains Outlook
27
Table: Mexico Production & Consumption Outlook
28
Table: Risks to Outlook
29
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
31
Commodities Price Analysis
32
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
32
Upstream Analysis
34
Americas GM Outlook
34
Americas Machinery Outlook
41
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
44
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
48
Downstream Analysis
54
Food
54
Latest Updates
54
Structural Trends
55
Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020)
56
Regional Overview
59
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
66
Demographic Forecast
67
Demographic Outlook
67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
70
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Sector-Specific Methodology
73

The Mexico Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.