BMI forecasts a 12.2% growth in vehicle sales in Mexico in 2015 on the back of 13.0% increase in passenger car sales and 10.7% growth in the commercial vehicle segment. We also forecast production growth to accelerate, growing 7.2% over the year, spurred on by 6.3%, 8.8% and 5.4% increases in the passenger car, light commercial vehicle (LCV) and heavy truck segments, respectively.
Household spending has continued to grow in recent quarters, indicating that private consumption has fully recovered from the shock effect of tax rises in early 2014. Consumer confidence and purchasing power will also be boosted by growing employment created by the resurgence in manufacturing activity and recovery in the country's construction sector.
A government ban on used car imports has also provided a strong boost to new vehicle sales by pushing would-be pre-owned vehicle buyers into the new vehicle markets. This will continue to support sales volumes in 2015 and beyond. We also expect cheaper, entry-level segments of new vehicles to outperform other vehicle classes owing to their attractiveness to buyers that would have otherwise looked for cheaper used vehicle models.
In the LCV segment, we also expect sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and, to a lesser extent, pick-ups to outperform van segments, owing to the SUV and pick-up sub-segments both benefiting more from the uptick in private consumption in the country.
Sales of heavy trucks will also return to strong growth in 2015 as the market shakes off the effects of oversupply in 2013. Owing to low base effects of low sales during H114, sales will expand in H115 and will remain in positive territory over the remainder of the year as activity in the country's manufacturing and construction industries expands. We forecast heavy truck purchases to increase by 6.0% over the year.
Between 2015 and 2019, we also expect light vehicle production to remain in a steady growth phase as US demand for Mexican exports continues to build and new...
The Mexico Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Mexico Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Mexico.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mexican automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.