Mexico Country Risk Report

Published 28 January 2015 | Quarterly

  • 56 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Mexico Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.

  • The passage of energy sector reform will bolster sentiment towards Mexican assets and contribute to stronger real GDP growth in the coming years.

  • The 2015 mid-term elections will be key for the main centre-right opposition party, the Partido Accion Nacional, to position itself to return to the presidency in the next general elections in 2018, though we expect the ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional to retain dominance in the lower house.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised down our 2015 real GDP growth estimate from 3.5% to 3.3%, mainly due to public investment cuts announced in early January.

  • Government spending cuts has prompted us to revise our 2015 fiscal budget from a deficit of 3.2% of GDP to smaller shortfall of 2.9% of GDP.

  • We have revised our average exchange rate forecast for 2015, from MXN13.75/USD to MXN14.75/USD, following a sharp sell-off in Q115 and persistent US dollar strength.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • A further drop in oil prices could temper investment excitement towards Mexico's first international oil licensing round (Round One). A disappointing Round One which would drive a sharply weaker exchange rate and would weigh heavily on the long-term fixed investment outlook of the country.

  • A weakening in the US economy would weigh on real GDP growth in Mexico, through lower export growth of manufactured goods.

  • A deteriorating security environment also poses downside risk to our growth outlook, as it could drive a reversal in investor sentiment.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 1,281.9 1,304.5 1,249.1 1,343.4
Consumer price inflation, %...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Ruling PRI To Lose Support In Midterms Due To Iguala Crisis
8
Mexican President Enrique Pe-a Nieto's approval rating will continue to fall in the coming months, as the disappea rance of 43 students
Mexican President Enrique Pe-a Nieto's approval rating will continue to fall in the coming months, as the disappea rance of 43 students
in Iguala heightens concerns over security and corruption
TABLE: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Strengthening, But Challenges Remain
9
The next decade looks set to be challenging for Mexico owing to a weak security situation, high levels of income inequality and endemic
The next decade looks set to be challenging for Mexico owing to a weak security situation, high levels of income inequality and endemic
corruption
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth To Accelerate In 2015
14
Economic growth in Mexico will accelerate in 2015, driven by stronger private consumption, an uptick in fixed investment, and robust US
Economic growth in Mexico will accelerate in 2015, driven by stronger private consumption, an uptick in fixed investment, and robust US
demand for the country's manufactured goods exports
TABLE: GDP By Expenditure
14
Balance Of Payments
16
Current Account Deficit To Narrow In 2015
16
Mexico's current account deficit will narrow in 2015, driven by robust growth in manufactured goods exports to the US
Moreover, the
country's first international oil licensing round, which will commence in H115, will attract significant foreign investment, keeping the
country's first international oil licensing round, which will commence in H115, will attract significant foreign investment, keeping the
financial account surplus sizeable
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
17
Fiscal Policy
17
Greater Tax Revenue To Narrow Budget Deficit
17
Mexico's nominal fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP will slightly narrow in 2015
Rising tax revenue will serve to offset decreasing intake
from state-owned oil company Petr-leos Mexicanos in the wake of energy sector liberalisation
TABLE: Fiscal Policy
18
Exchange Rate Forecast
19
MXN: Weaker Average Exchange Rate In 2015
19
The Mexican peso will average weaker in 2015 than in 2014, driven mainly by a bull run in the US dollar
However, following a
sharp sell-off in Q414, investment inflows into the newly-liberalised energy sector, combined with strong US demand for Mexican
sharp sell-off in Q414, investment inflows into the newly-liberalised energy sector, combined with strong US demand for Mexican
manufactured goods, will result in moderate appreciation of the peso in spot terms in the coming months
TABLE: BMI Curency Forecast
19
TABLE: Exchange Rate
19
Monetary Policy
21
Banxico Rate Hikes To Follow Fed Tightening In H215
21
The Banco de M-xico (Banxico) will commence a rate hiking cycle in H215, as the economic recovery that began last year
The Banco de M-xico (Banxico) will commence a rate hiking cycle in H215, as the economic recovery that began last year
solidifies
TABLE: Monetary Policy
21
Key Sector Outlook
22
Latin America Autos: Key Themes For 2015
22
2015 will see a growing divergence amongst Latin America's major vehicle producers
We highlight three major themes that will shape
the regional market over 2015: 1) Production divergence amongst major producers, 2) regional currency depreciations, and 3) falling oil
the regional market over 2015: 1) Production divergence amongst major producers, 2) regional currency depreciations, and 3) falling oil
prices
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Mexican Economy To 2024
25
Stronger Growth Ahead Following The Passage Of Key Reforms
25
Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics suggest that the country
Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics suggest that the country
is well placed to see solid economic expansion in coming years, such that we forecast robust 4
1 % average real GDP growth over the
coming decade
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: Operational Risk
30
Availability Of Labour
31
TABLE: Latin America - Availability Of Labour Risk
32
TABLE: Lab our Force Empl oyment By Sect or ('000)
34
TABLE: Top 10 Source Countries For Migrant Workers ('000)
35
Crime Risk
36
TABLE: Latin America - Crime Risks
37
TABLE: Crime Statistics
38
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
41
Autos
41
TABLE: Aut os Total Mar ket - Hist orical Data And Forecasts
42
Food & Drink
43
TABLE: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
44
TABLE: Hot Drink Value /Volume Sales , Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts
47
TABLE: Mas Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Hist orical Data & Forecasts
48
Other Key Sectors
49
TABLE: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
49
TABLE: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
49
TABLE: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
49
TABLE: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
50
TABLE: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
50
TABLE: Freight Ke y Indicators
50
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
51
Global Outlook
51
New Era For Oil
51
Table: Global Assumptions
51
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %
52
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
52
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
53

The Mexico Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Mexico. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Mexico's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI  Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Mexico's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Mexico's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Mexico, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Mexico Country Risk Report by BMI  Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Mexico' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Mexico through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Mexico Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Mexico and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Mexico, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Mexico over the next 5-years?

BMI's Mexico country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Mexico Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Mexico.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Mexico's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Mexico’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Mexico's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Mexico?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Mexico against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Mexico’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Mexico will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Mexico's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express