Mexico Food & Drink Report

Published 02 March 2015

  • 176 pages
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$1,295.00
Mexico Food & Drink Report

BMI View: The Mexican economy will improve significantly in 2015, following sluggish growth in the last couple of years. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2015, up from a projected 2.1% in 2014 and 1.4% in 2013. Lower oil prices will contribute to a stronger US consumer, resulting in greater demand for Mexican manufactured goods exports. Mexico's manufacturing sector accounts for over 17.0% of GDP and is a main generator of employment. As a result, more favourable labour market dynamics, combined with the diminishing effect o f tax hikes on consumer goods that were implemented in January 2014, will lead to significantly stronger household spending in 2015.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption = +3.5%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +4.5%

  • 2015 alcoholic drink sales = +4.4%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +5.8%

  • 2015 soft drink sales = +5.2%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +5.8%

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales = +6.8%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +7.4%

Key Company Trends

Parmalat To Buy Mexico Cheese Assets : In early 2015 Lactalis-owned Parmalat announced an agreement to acquire 'a group of companies that operate mainly in Mexico' for EUR105mn. Parmalat said that the businesses have 'leadership positions' in their categories, namely cheese. As part of the deal, Parmalat will own a range of brands including Esmeralda, El Ciervo, and Mariposa. The company will also take on four production facilities - one in Mexico, two in Uruguay and one in Argentina - plus a distribution network in Mexico with 20 distribution centres. According to Parmalat the acquired companies generated net revenues of USD197mn in 2013.

Herdez Acquires Nestle's Ice Cream Business : In late 2014 Grupo Herdez agreed to acquire Nestl e's ice cream business in Mexico, Helados Nestle, in a deal worth MXN1bn. According to Herdez, the acquisition of Helados Nestle will increase Herdez's 'scale and capabilities' in the frozen sector and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
19
Food Consumption
19
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
20
Confectionery
20
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Prepared/Canned Food
23
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Meat
24
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Fish
26
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
26
Oils And Fats
28
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
28
Pasta
33
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
33
Dairy
34
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
35
Baked Products
39
Table: Baked Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
40
Drink
44
Hot Drinks
44
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
44
Alcoholic Drinks
45
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
45
Soft Drinks
45
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts - 2011-2018
46
Table: Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
47
Mass Grocery Retail
50
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
51
Trade
52
Table: Trade Balance Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
52
Macroeconomic Forecast
53
Economic Analysis
53
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
58
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
59
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
61
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
63
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
64
Market Overview
65
Food
65
Food Processing
65
Confectionery
65
Organics
67
Prepared/Canned Food
67
Dairy
68
Meat
69
Seafood
69
Drink
70
Hot Drinks
70
Alcoholic Drinks
70
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
71
Mass Grocery Retail
75
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets
77
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format (USDbn)
77
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format (MXNbn)
77
Industry Trends And Developments
78
Food
78
Key Industry Trends And Developments
78
Drink
100
Key Industry Trends And Developments
100
Mass Grocery Retail
118
Key Industry Trends And Developments
118
Competitive Landscape
126
Table: Key Players In Mexico's Food Sector
126
Table: Key Players In Mexico's Drink Sector
127
Table: Key Players In Mexico's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
127
Company Profile
130
Industrias Bachoco
130
Grupo Herdez
132
Gruma
135
Grupo Bimbo
138
Grupo Modelo
142
Arca Continental
146
FEMSA
151
Walmart De M-xico
155
Controladora Comercial Mexicana
158
Soriana
161
Global Industry Overview
164
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
176
Demographic Forecast
177
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
178
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
179
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
180
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
180
Glossary
181
Food & Drink
181
Mass Grocery Retail
181
Methodology
183
Industry Forecast Methodology
183
Sector-Specific Methodology
184
Sources
184
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
185
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
186
Table: Weighting
187

The Mexico Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Mexico Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Mexico.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc