BMI View: We forecast positive growth across Mexico's freight sector in 2016, with the rail mode showing the rosiest signs of growth both in 2016 and in the medium term to 2019. While our forecasts show significant drops in indicators such as real trade growth from 2015 to 2016, growth remains positive and key macroeconomic figures such as real GDP and GDP per capita growth are on a solid upward trajectory, which will filter through the increasingly powerful Mexican consumer to continue driving the economy and freight sector volumes.
Mexico's freight sector stands to benefit from a boosted economy and healthy, albeit modest, growth figures in road, rail and air freight tonnage. Rail freight will be the highest-performing mode to 2019, as well as leading the way in 2016, although it should be noted that drops in y-o-y growth in 2016 come off the back of higher growth rates in 2015 than previous years. Although these small surges will not be replicated in 2016, continued positive growth in the short and medium term suggests the gains made in 2015 have created a solid foundation for subsequent expansion in all freight modes.
All freight modes will also benefit from infrastructural investment and renovations, such as the planned Mexico City Highway and new Mexico City international airport. In the near term, the opening of a new rail link between the US and Mexico should improve agricultural and other commodities-based exports between the two countries, which have always relied on one another for bilateral trade. As the US continues to recover from the slowdown in Asia in 2015 and continues to recover from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, Mexico can only stand to gain.
The sector's stability is also boosted by macroeconomic gains on multiple fronts. Mexico's real GDP is forecast to slowly but steadily rise across our forecast period. In 2016 growth will reach 3.1%, up from an estimated 2.4% in 2015, and will continue to grow at 3.8% average annual growth to 2019, when it will reach a recent peak of 4.3% y-o-y. In local currency terms GDP per capita growth will grow by an extremely strong 9.1% annual average to 2019. While growth in 2016 will be by 7.9%, this is up from a 13.1% decline in growth recorded in 2015. Although private final consumption figures will reach a more modest 3.2% growth in 2016, we still believe freight will largely be driven by Mexico's growing middle class and increasingly power consumer base. This, coupled with optimistic trade figures and infrastructure expansion, is providing Mexico's freight sector with everything it needs to carry on growing.
In October 2015 the Grupo Aeroportuario de la Ciudad de Mexico (GACM) secured USD3bn for the new Mexico City international airport from a total of 13 lenders. The entire project is expected to cost MXN169bn (USD10.2bn), while the new airport will feature a large terminal spanning 560,000sq m with six runways.
On October 15 2015 Mexico and the US began piloting a cargo pre-inspection programme at Laredo International Airport in the US state of Texas. Under the new programme, cargo will be inspected just once in the exporting nation by customs officials from both countries, which could ease shipping congestion by reducing waiting times by up to 80% and save storage costs and other expenses.
In August 2015 the US and Mexico opened their first new rail link in more than a century. The West Rail Bypass International Bridge will primarily carry freight, linking the city of Brownsville, Texas, with the city of Matamoros in Mexico.
The Mexican government announced that in H215 it was undertaking the construction and renovation of 80 federal highways, according to the Secretariat (ministry) of Communications and Transport.
Key BMI Forecasts
Road freight will increase by 1.6% y-o-y to 545mn tonnes in 2016, and average 2.63% from 2016-2019.
Rail freight will increase by 2.5% y-o-y to 129mn tonnes in 2016, and average 3.83% from 2016-2019.
Air freight will increase by 2.2% y-o-y to 119,000 tonnes in 2016, and average 2.2% from 2016-2019.
Real trade growth will increase by 2.3% in 2016, and average 4.4% from 2016-2019.
The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.