Mexico Freight Transport Report

Published 31 December 2014

  • 65 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Following energy sector reform Mexico will garner significant foreign investment. We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2015, up from 2.6% in 2014.

We expect real private consumption growth in Mexico to accelerate. After slowing from 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H113 to 1.4% y-o-y in H114, we forecast real private consumption growth of 3.7% in 2015. New taxes on several consumer goods that took effect on January 1 2014 weighed on private consumption in the first half of the year. However, consumer confidence has been improving, signalling that the effects of the tax hikes are receding.

Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumption and favourable demographics suggest that it is well placed to see solid economic expansion. We forecast robust 4.1% average real GDP growth over the coming decade. We expect Mexico's oil sector to become an increasingly important driver of growth following energy sector liberalisation in December 2013.

Headline Industry Data

  • Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.6% in 2015, to reach 109,140 tonnes.

  • Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.4% in 2015, to reach 541.16mn tonnes.

  • Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.5% in 2015, to reach 119mn tonnes.

  • Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2015 is forecast to hit 7.2%, to reach 32.8mn tonnes.

Key Trends And Developments: FedEx: Mexico Key To Realising LATAM Strategy

The strong demand for US imports to Mexico will drive revenue growth for US logistics operator Federal Express (Fed Ex) as components of its Latin America ground and air expansion plan, which came online in 2013 and 2014, begin to pay dividends. We hold this view despite a year-on-year revenue tonne-mileage decline in its air cargo wing FEDEX Express in the first seven months of 2014.

Risks...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Air Freight
13
Table: Air Freight (Mexico 2011-2018)
15
Road Freight
15
Table: Road Freight (Mexico 2011-2018)
17
Table: Rail Freight (Mexico 2011-2018)
19
Inland Waterway Freight
19
Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Mexico 2011-2018)
20
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight (Mexico 2011-2018)
22
Trade
22
Table: Trade Overview (Mexico 2011-2018)
22
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Mexico 2011-2018)
23
Table: Main Import Partners, 2005-2012
24
Table: Main Export Partners, 2005-2012
25
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Rail Freight
30
Air Freight
30
Road Freight
31
Maritime Freight
31
Company Profile
33
Grupo M-xico
33
Kansas City Southern de M-xico
39
Aerotransportes Mas de Carga
45
Political Outlook
47
Domestic Politics
47
Table: Mexico - 2015 Governorship Elections
49
Long-Term Political Outlook
49
Table: Table: Political Overview
53
Oil Price Outlook
54
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
54
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
54
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
56
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
60
Risks To Outlook
61
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
62
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
62
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
67
Risks To Outlook
68
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
69
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
69
Supply Keeps Market Down
69
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
71
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
72
Risks To Outlook
75
Macroeconomic Forecasts
76
Economic Analysis
76
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Mexico 2011-2018)
81
Demographic Forecast
82
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
83
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
84
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
85
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Sources
88

The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc