Mexico Freight Transport Report

Published 02 June 2015

  • 62 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Economic growth in Mexico will accelerate in 2015, driven by stronger private consumption , an uptick in fixed investment and robust US demand for the country's manufactured goods exports. This will drive up demand across all freight modes, with 6.4% growth in rail freight tonna ge, 3.2% growth in road freight and 3.8% growth in airfreight over 2015.

The Mexican economy will improve significantly in 2015, following sluggish growth in the last couple of years. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2015, up from projected 2.1% in 2014 and 1.4% in 2013. This will boost demand for imported goods, while a similarly positive outlook for the US will drive up the volume of Mexican exports transported to the US. These complementary trends offer significant advantages for the road and rail freight sectors in particular, though we also expect to see increased imports of consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals over the medium term supporting airfreight tonnage growth.

A major upside risk for operators in the Mexican freight transport sector is presented by the growing trend of 'nearshoring', the practice of moving production centres closer to consumer markets. Increasing oil prices, rising wages and weather disruption to supply chains has caused companies to look away from Asia and towards Mexico when considering where to base their production centres. Advantages to be gained from nearshoring in Mexico are lower freight costs, faster time-to-market rates and lower inventory costs. This trend should be of huge benefit to Mexican freight transport operators, as more production centres in the country means more volumes to transport to the US consumer markets.

According to BMI's Key Projects Database, there is USD26.2bn worth of transport infrastructure projects planned or underway in Mexico. This is good news for the sector, as the government's National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) lost all momentum in the wake of the 2008/09 financial crisis. Flagship...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Mexico - Q315
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Trade Forecast
14
Table: Trade Overview (Mexico 2012-2019)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Mexico 2012-2019)
16
Table: Main Import Partners
18
Table: Main Export Partners
18
Road Freight Forecast
19
Table: Road Freight (Mexico 2012-2019)
21
Rail Freight Forecast
22
Table: Rail Freight (Mexico 2012-2019)
24
Air Freight Forecast
25
Table: Air Freight (Mexico 2012-2019)
28
Company Profile
29
Grupo M-xico
29
Kansas City Southern de M-xico
32
Aerotransportes Mas de Carga
35
Political Outlook
37
Domestic Politics
37
Table: Main Three Parties At A Glance
40
Long-Term Political Outlook
41
Table: Political Overview
45
Oil Price Outlook
46
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
46
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
46
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
47
Macroeconomic Forecasts
49
Economic Analysis
49
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Mexico 2012-2019)
53
Demographic Forecast
54
Demographic Outlook
54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
55
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
55
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
57
Methodology
59
Industry Forecast Methodology
59
Sector-Specific Methodology
60
Sources
62

The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc