BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Mexico's mining industry growth, predicated on a strong project pipeline, low operating costs and vast mineral reserves . Nonetheless, elevated cartel violence will remain a key downside risk.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, INEGI|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||16.5||14.8||14.8||15.1||15.7||16.3||16.9||17.4||17.8|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||11.8||-10.5||0.3||2.0||3.5||4.0||3.5||3.0||2.5|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Mexico's mining industry value will see solid growth, supported by low operating costs and a strong project pipeline, over the next few years. We forecast the country's sector value to increase from USD15.7bn in 2016 to USD17.8bn by 2020, averaging 3.3% annual growth.
Mexico will remain the leading global silver producer, with production growth accelerating over our forecast period to 2020 on the back of a strong project pipeline. We expect the country's silver output to increase from 178 million ounces (moz) in 2016 to 214moz by 2020, averaging 4.5% annual growth.
Mexico's silver industry production growth will be export-driven, as key Asian markets increase silver consumption. For instance, in 2015, Mexico's silver ores and concentrates exports to China nearly doubled to 1.5moz compared to 791koz the previous year. Similarly, in 2015, the country exported 511koz of silver ores and concentrates to South Korea, up from 412koz in 2014.
Mexico's copper sector will continue increase output, due to competitive operating costs and a significant project pipeline over the coming years. Namely, Southern Copper's USD3.5bn expansion at the Buenavista mine will ramp up output to 500 thousand tonnes (kt) by 2017. In light of this, we have revised Mexico's copper output growth forecast up from 3.0 to 10.0% and 2.5% to 4.0% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. We forecast the country's output to increase from 592 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2016 to 644kt by 2020.
The key downside risk to our upbeat mining production forecasts for Mexico will be elevated violence in northern states, where a number of projects are located. For instance, Fresnillo's USD515mn San Julian silver-gold project, expected to begin production in 2017, sits in Chihuahua. The state of Chihuahua, in which Ciudad Juarez is located, recorded a homicide rate of 46 per 100,000 people in 2014 - the second highest in the country, and well above the national average of 16 per 100,000 people, according to data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica.
The Mexico Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Mexico Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Mexico.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.