Mexico Oil & Gas Report

Published 14 May 2015

  • 141 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Mexico's historic energy sector reform s mark the start of a fundamental shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Although it will b e a number of years before results are felt in the country's production and reserves data, over the long term t he reforms will bolster upstream activity and will reverse a decade-long decline in oil production.

Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,882.4 2,750.6 2,620.2 2,600.5 2,603.8 2,618.5 2,644.7
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,367.6 1,370.3 1,384.0 1,397.8 1,439.8 1,655.7 1,675.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,044.7 2,095.8 2,148.2 2,201.9 2,256.9 2,302.1 2,348.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 46.4 46.7 47.1 48.1 48.6 49.3 50.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 64.6 66.5 69.8 74.7 80.7 84.7 87.7

Notable trends in the Mexican hydrocarbon sector include:

  • The Mexican energy sector will be an out performer amid a bleak oil price environment, due to proven below-ground resources that reduce exploration risks, improvements in above-ground conditions and a large immediate market available for oil and gas sales.

  • In December 2014 the government announced the start of the historic Round One licensing auction, marking the official end to the 76-year monopoly of state-owned oil company Pemex and ushering in a new era of greater productive potential. A lower oil price environment will likely temper initial investor interest, though we still expect vast below-ground resources to draw significant investment from international oil companies (IOCs).

  • Mexico's first international public tender is expected provide a geological mix of 169 prospective blocks as part of an international bidding process. The...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Mexico 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Mexico 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Mexico Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
19
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
19
Upstream Production - Gas
29
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
29
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
29
Table: Cost Per Well
32
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
34
Table: Mexican Refineries, Active And Proposed
35
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2019-2024)
38
Gas Consumption
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2013-2018)
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2019-2024)
40
Trade - Oil
44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
47
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Mexico 2013-2018)
48
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Mexico 2019-2024)
49
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
51
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
53
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
53
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
54
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
56
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
56
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
59
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
61
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index
62
Mexico Upstream Index - Overview
62
Mexico Downstream Index - Overview
63
Market Overview
64
Energy Market Overview
64
Overview
64
Government Policy
64
Licensing And Regulation
67
Table: First Bidding Round: Southern Region
67
Table: Second Bidding Round - Northern Region
67
Table: Third Bid Round - Chicontepec
68
Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Licensing Round One
69
International Energy Relations
70
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades
72
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
73
Oil Refineries
73
Table: Downstream Projects
73
Service Stations
74
Oil Storage Facilities
75
Oil Terminals/Ports
75
Oil Pipelines
75
LNG Terminals
76
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
76
Gas Pipelines
78
Competitive Landscape
80
Competitive Landscape Summary
80
Table: Key Energy Players
81
Table: Upstream Players
82
Table: Downstream Players
82
Company Profile
83
Petr-leos Mexicanos (Pemex)
83
Repsol
92
Other Summaries
96
Regional Overview
99
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
99
Global Industry Overview
108
Oil Price Outlook
108
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
108
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
109
Appendix
116
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
116
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
116
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
117
Latin America - Regional Appendix
118
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
122
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
123
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
123
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
124
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
124
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
125
Mexico - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
126
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
126
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
126
Mexico - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Mexico 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Mexico 2019-2024)
128
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Mexico 2013-2018)
129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Mexico 2019-2024)
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Mexico 2013-2018)
132
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Mexico 2019-2024)
133
Glossary
134
Table: Glossary Of Terms
134
Methodology
136
Industry Forecast Methodology
136
Source
138
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
138
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
140
Table: Weighting
141

The Mexico Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Mexico including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Mexico Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Mexico to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc