Mexico Oil & Gas Report

Published 04 August 2015

  • 139 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Mexico Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Mexico's historic energy sector liberalisation mark s the start of a fundamental shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Although it will b e a number of years before results are felt in the country's production and reserves data, over the long term t he reforms will bolster upstream activity and reverse a decade-long decline in oil production.

Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,882.4 2,779.5 2,635.2 2,522.9 2,449.3 2,463.2 2,487.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,438.0 1,440.9 1,383.2 1,397.1 1,411.0 1,439.3 1,482.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,044.7 1,966.4 2,005.7 2,045.8 2,097.0 2,149.4 2,203.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 46.4 46.7 47.1 48.1 48.6 49.3 50.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 64.6 66.5 69.8 74.7 80.7 84.7 87.7

Notable trends in the Mexican hydrocarbon sector include:

  • In December 2014 the government announced the start of the historic Round One licensing auction, marking the official end to the 76-year monopoly of state-owned oil company Pemex and ushering in a new era of greater productive potential. A lower oil price environment will likely temper initial investor interest, though we still expect vast below-ground resources to draw significant investment from international oil companies (IOCs).

  • Mexico's first international licensing round is expected provide a geological mix of 169 prospective blocks as part of an international bidding process. The areas to be offered will comprise two areas in deep waters, areas of shale gas, parts of the non-conventional Chicontepec (basin) and shallow water blocks.

  • We believe Mexico's deepwater tenders will attract the strongest investor interest given the size...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Mexico 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Mexico 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Mexico Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
19
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
19
Upstream Production - Gas
29
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
29
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
29
Table: Cost Per Well
32
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
34
Table: Mexican Refineries, Active And Proposed
35
Refined Fuels Consumption
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2019-2024)
37
Gas Consumption
39
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2013-2018)
39
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Oil
43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
46
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Mexico 2013-2018)
47
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Mexico 2019-2024)
48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
50
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
53
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
53
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
53
Upstream RRI: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
55
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
56
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
58
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
60
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index
61
Mexico Upstream Index - Overview
61
Mexico Downstream Index - Overview
62
Market Overview
63
Energy Market Overview
63
Overview
63
Government Policy
63
Licensing And Regulation
66
Table: First Bidding Round: Southern Region
66
Table: Second Bidding Round - Northern Region
66
Table: Third Bid Round - Chicontepec
67
Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Licensing Round One
68
International Energy Relations
69
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades
71
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
72
Oil Refineries
72
Table: Downstream Projects
72
Service Stations
73
Oil Storage Facilities
74
Oil Terminals/Ports
74
Oil Pipelines
74
LNG Terminals
75
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
75
Gas Pipelines
77
Competitive Landscape
79
Competitive Landscape Summary
79
Table: Key Energy Players
80
Table: Upstream Players
81
Table: Downstream Players
81
Company Profile
82
Petr-leos Mexicanos (Pemex)
82
Repsol
92
Other Summaries
96
Regional Overview
99
Latin America Overview
99
Global Industry Overview
108
Global Energy Market Overview
108
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
112
Appendix
114
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
114
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, Global 2013-2018
114
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, Global 2019-2024
115
Latin America - Regional Appendix
116
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
121
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
121
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
122
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
122
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
123
Mexico - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
124
Mexico - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Mexico 2013-2018)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Mexico 2019-2024)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Mexico 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Mexico 2019-2024)
128
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Mexico 2013-2018)
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Mexico 2019-2024)
131
Glossary
132
Table: Glossary Of Terms
132
Methodology
134
Industry Forecast Methodology
134
Source
136
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
136
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
138
Table: Weighting
139

The Mexico Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Mexico including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Mexico Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Mexico to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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