Mexico Oil & Gas Report

Published 11 February 2015

  • 130 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Mexico's ongoing and historic energy sector reform s mark the start of a fundamental shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Although it will b e a number of years before results are felt in the country's production and reserves data, over the long term t he reforms will bolster upstream activity and likely reverse a nearly decade-long decline in oil production.

Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL and other liquids production, 000b/d 2,882.5 2,866.5 2,857.0 2,854.0 2,857.3 2,885.9 2,927.5
Refined products production and ethanol, 000b/d 1,367.6 1,370.3 1,384.0 1,397.9 1,439.8 1,655.8 1,675.7
Refined products consumption and ethanol, 000b/d 2,044.7 2,095.8 2,148.2 2,201.9 2,256.9 2,302.1 2,348.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 46.4 46.7 47.1 48.1 48.6 49.3 50.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 64.6 66.5 69.5 72.6 75.9 79.3 82.1

Recent notable trends in the Mexican hydrocarbon sector include:

  • The Mexican energy sector will be an out performer amid a bleak oil price environment, due to proven below-ground resources that reduce exploration risks, improvements in above-ground conditions and a large immediate market available for oil and gas sales.

  • In December 2014 the government announced the start of the historic Round One licensing auction, marking the official end to the 76-year monopoly of state-owned oil company Pemex and ushering in a new era of greater productive potential. A lower oil price environment will likely temper initial investor interest, though we still expect vast below-ground resources to draw significant investment from international oil companies (IOCs).

  • Mexico's first international public tender is expected provide a geological mix of 169 prospective blocks as part of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Mexico 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Mexico 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Major Mexican Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2012-2017)
17
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2018-2023)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2012-2017)
26
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2018-2023)
26
Table: Cost Per Well, USDmn
29
Refining
31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2012-2017)
31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2018-2023)
31
Table: Mexican Refineries, Active and Proposed
32
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2012-2017)
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2018-2023)
34
Gas Consumption
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2012-2017)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2018-2023)
36
Trade - Oil
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2012-2017)
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2018-2023)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2012-2017)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2018-2023)
42
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Mexico 2012-2017)
43
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Mexico 2018-2023)
44
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2012-2017)
45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2018-2023)
45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
48
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
48
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
48
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
50
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index
51
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
54
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
56
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index
57
Mexico Upstream Index - Overview
57
Mexico Upstream Index - Rewards
57
Mexico Downstream Index - Overview
58
Mexico Downstream Index - Rewards
58
Market Overview
60
Mexico Energy Market Overview
60
Overview
60
Government Policy
60
Licensing And Regulation
63
Table: 1st Bidding Round: Southern Region
63
Table: 2nd Bidding Round - Northern Region
64
Table: 3rd Bid Round - Chicontepec
64
Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Round One Licensing Round
66
International Energy Relations
66
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades
70
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
71
Oil Refineries
71
Table: Downstream Projects
71
Service Stations
73
Oil Storage Facilities
74
Oil Terminals/Ports
74
Oil Pipelines
74
LNG Terminals
75
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
75
Gas Pipelines
78
Competitive Landscape
80
Competitive Landscape Summary
80
Table: Key Energy Players
81
Table: Upstream Players
81
Table: Downstream Players
81
Company Profile
82
Petr-leos Mexicanos (Pemex)
82
Repsol
90
Other Summaries
93
Regional Overview
95
Latin America Overview
95
Global Industry Overview
103
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
105
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
106
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL)
107
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl)
107
Appendix
109
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
109
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017 (Global 2012-2017)
109
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023 (Global 2018-2023)
110
Latin America - Regional Appendix
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
112
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
116
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
116
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
118
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
118
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
119
Mexico - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
120
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Mexico 2012-2017)
120
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Mexico 2018-2023)
120
Mexico - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
121
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Mexico 2012-2017)
121
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Mexico 2018-2023)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Mexico 2012-2017)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Mexico 2018-2023)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Mexico 2012-2017)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Mexico 2018-2023)
126
Glossary
128
Table: Glossary Of Terms
128
Methodology
130
Industry Forecast Methodology
130
Source
132
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
132
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
134
Table: Weighting
135

The Mexico Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Mexico including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Mexico Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Mexico to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc