Mexico Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Mexico Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Mexico's historic energy sector liberalisation mark s the start of a fundamental shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Whilst it will b e a number of years before results are seen in the country's production and reserves data, over the long term t he reforms will bolster upstream activity and reverse a decade-long decline in oil production . Pemex ' s upstream activity will remain limited over the next two years amid the broad industry downturn.

Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,779.3 2,600.5 2,421.6 2,362.1 2,385.7 2,450.6 2,496.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,409.1 1,276.6 1,289.4 1,302.3 1,341.3 1,408.4 1,429.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,007.0 2,027.1 2,057.5 2,094.6 2,142.7 2,196.3 2,251.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 45.4 45.0 44.5 44.3 44.9 46.3 47.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 73.3 76.9 81.5 87.3 91.6 94.8 97.7
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Weak fundamentals combined with bearish speculative positioning have sustained weakness of benchmark prices below profitable levels for Mexican crude production. Our forecast for continued price volatility over the next several months will weigh on Mexico's already downbeat outlook, limiting investment into existing projects by state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). We therefore maintain our downbeat expectation for total liquids production in 2016 at -6.9% y-o-y implying a reduction of 180,000b/d this year. This compares to a decline of 6.4% y-o-y in 2015 and extends Mexico's overall losses for a 12th consecutive year.

  • The Mexican government's USD4.2bn bailout of Pemex underscores the state-owned oil company's continued struggles in the face of an elevated debt burden, sizeable arrears to oilfield service providers and limited liquidity. While the bailout will weigh on Mexico's sovereign credentials in the short term, we believe damage to investor sentiment will be mitigated by the government's history of prudent macroeconomic policies and Pemex's ongoing cost-cutting measures.

  • We affirm our long-held positive view for the accelerated development of natural gas pipelines in Mexico, with oil and gas pipelines set to continue expanding through 2017. Mexican consumption growth will remain strong over the coming years, driven by an expanding manufacturing sector and increased residential demand. We believe the major driver of this trend will be the government's efforts to expand the use of gas-fired thermal generation in the country's electricity mix, which will be increasingly fuelled by cheap gas imported from the US.

  • As part of energy sector liberalisation, Mexican officials have renewed their commitment to draw investment into the country's unconventional assets. The National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH) will reportedly offer sections of the Burgos Basin - an extension of the vast Eagle Ford play in south Texas - as part of the Round One licensing process late this year or early 2017. We maintain our long-held view that Mexico's shale resources will fail to generate significant investor interest, delaying any production beyond our 10-year forecast period.

  • On April 14, commissioners at Mexico's National Hydrocarbons Agency (CNH) voted to improve the terms for the country's inaugural deepwater licensing round, which is set of December 5. By bolstering the attractiveness of the already highly prospective resources, we affirm our view that the 10 blocks on offer will generate strong investor interest despite the weakened state of the upstream sector globally. Building off of a round of amendments passed in January, investors will benefit from further clarity with respect to development timelines for the deepwater blocks.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Mexico - Major Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2014-2019)
30
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2020-2025)
30
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Cost Per Well
34
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2020-2025)
36
Refining
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Mexican Refineries, Active And Proposed
38
Table: Pemex Downstream Spending Plan
40
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2014-2019)
42
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2020-2025)
43
Refined Fuels Consumption
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
46
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025)
46
Gas Consumption
47
Latest Updates
47
Structural Trends
47
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
50
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025)
50
Trade - Oil
51
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
51
Latest Updates
51
Structural Trends
51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2020)
54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)
55
Refined Fuels Forecasts
55
Latest Updates
55
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019)
56
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)
57
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
58
Latest Updates
58
Structural Trends
58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019)
61
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)
61
Industry Risk Reward Index
62
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
62
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
62
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
63
Upstream RRI: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
64
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
65
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
67
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
69
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index
70
Mexico Upstream Index - Overview
70
Mexico Downstream Index - Overview
71
Market Overview
72
Energy Market Overview
72
Overview
72
Government Policy
72
Licensing And Regulation
76
Table: First Bidding Round: Southern Region
76
Table: Second Bidding Round - Northern Region
76
Table: Third Bid Round - Chicontepec
77
Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Licensing Round One
78
International Energy Relations
79
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades
82
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
83
Oil Refineries
83
Table: Downstream Projects
85
Service Stations
86
Oil Storage Facilities
86
Oil Terminals/Ports
86
Oil Pipelines
87
LNG Terminals
87
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
88
Gas Pipelines
89
Competitive Landscape
92
Competitive Landscape Summary
92
Table: Key Energy Players
93
Table: Upstream Players
94
Table: Downstream Players
94
Company Profile
95
Pemex
95
Repsol
106
Other Summaries
110
Regional Overview
113
Latin America Overview
113
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024
122
Glossary
124
Table: Glossary Of Terms
124
Methodology
126
Industry Forecast Methodology
126
Source
128
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
128
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
130
Table: Weighting
131

The Mexico Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Mexico including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Mexico Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Mexico to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.