Mexico Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Mexico Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Mexico's historic energy sector liberalisation mark s the start of a fundamental shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Although it will b e a number of years before results are felt in the country's production and reserves data, over the long term t he reforms will bolster upstream activity and reverse a decade-long decline in oil production.

Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,882.4 2,779.5 2,635.2 2,522.9 2,449.3 2,463.2 2,487.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,438.0 1,440.9 1,383.2 1,397.1 1,411.0 1,439.3 1,482.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,044.7 1,966.4 2,005.7 2,055.9 2,107.3 2,170.5 2,235.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 46.4 45.4 45.8 46.8 47.2 47.9 48.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 64.6 73.2 76.9 82.3 88.9 93.3 96.6
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 57.00 56.00 55.00 60.00 64.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts:

  • According to the release of Mexico's updated five-year E&P plan on October 21, the country's first four licensing rounds will offer a total of 104.8bn bbls of oil equivalent (boe) across over 235,000km 2. Round 1 (R1), which officially began in December 2014, will be the largest of the four, containing 70.1bn boe across 34,074km 2. All four rounds will offer deep water, unconventional, onshore and shallow water blocks.

  • We maintain our belief that Mexico's deepwater tenders will attract the strongest investor interest in R1 given the size and scope if the resources on offer. Their development will support a sustained level of output growth over the latter half of our 10-year forecast period.

  • Pemex was awarded an exemption to the US ban on crude exports on August 14 whereby they will import up to 100,000 barrels per day (b/d) of ultra-light US crude. These supplies will be used to blend with domestic heavier grades as a means of improving efficiencies at its heavy refineries in Salamanca, Tula and Salina Cruz. In return, the US will import Maya crude into its heavy-oriented refineries on the Gulf Coast, increasing total Mexican imports from their average rate of 803,000b/d in 2014.

  • The development of natural gas pipelines in Mexico will generate continued investor interest over the next several years as the country increases imports of cheap US natural gas. Given our positive economic growth outlook, Mexican demand for natural gas will continue to rise over the course of our forecast period supported by gains in midstream takeaway capacity from the Eagle Ford and Permian shale plays .

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Mexico Major Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
27
Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
27
Upstream Production - Gas
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Cost Per Well
31
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
33
Refining
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Mexican Refineries, Active And Proposed
35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2019-2024)
37
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2013-2018)
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Mexico 2019-2024)
40
Gas Consumption
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2013-2018)
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2019-2024)
44
Trade - Oil
45
Latest Updates
45
Structural Trends
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2019)
48
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
49
Latest Updates
49
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
50
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
51
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
52
Latest Updates
52
Structural Trends
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2013-2018)
55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2019-2024)
55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
56
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
56
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
56
Upstream RRI: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
58
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
59
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
61
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
63
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index
64
Mexico Upstream Index - Overview
64
Mexico Downstream Index - Overview
65
Market Overview
66
Energy Market Overview
66
Overview
66
Government Policy
66
Licensing And Regulation
70
Table: First Bidding Round: Southern Region
70
Table: Second Bidding Round - Northern Region
70
Table: Third Bid Round - Chicontepec
71
Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Licensing Round One
72
International Energy Relations
73
Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades
76
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
77
Oil Refineries
77
Table: Downstream Projects
77
Service Stations
78
Oil Storage Facilities
79
Oil Terminals/Ports
79
Oil Pipelines
79
LNG Terminals
80
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
80
Gas Pipelines
82
Competitive Landscape
84
Competitive Landscape Summary
84
Table: Key Energy Players
85
Table: Upstream Players
86
Table: Downstream Players
86
Company Profile
87
Petr-leos Mexicanos (Pemex)
87
Repsol
98
Other Summaries
102
Regional Overview
105
Latin America Overview
105
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
114
Glossary
116
Table: Glossary Of Terms
116
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Source
120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
120
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
122
Table: Weighting
123

The Mexico Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Mexico including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Mexico Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Mexico to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.