BMI View: We maintain our positive outlook for the Mexic an power secto r - with robust power consumption growth, vast public investment and the implementation of a wholesale electricity market to create significant business opportunities in the generation and the power infrastructure sectors . We expect gas power to outperform in terms of installed capacity over our forecast period, but we also anticipate strong growth in non-hydro renewables, boosted by s upportive policies .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI, National Sources|
|Generation, Total, TWh||301.548||312.079||318.298||336.918||354.884||368.631||382.333|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||251.7||261.1||270.3||285.8||301.5||318.4||331.0|
|Capacity, Net, MW||67,070.9||69,416.0||71,754.7||76,817.3||81,991.1||83,928.8||85,664.6|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In September 2015, the Mexican Ministry of Energy (Sener) published the Electricity Market Guidelines, a set of rules specifying the procedures for the administration and operation of the country's wholesale electricity market. The market is scheduled to be launched in January 2016, allowing generators to sell power into the market (rather than to the CFE) or to a supplier or qualified user via bilateral contracts.
Mexico's upbeat macroeconomic trajectory supports our forecast for strong growth in power consumption over the next ten years. Our Country Risk team remains optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.
The government has announced before end-2015 it will launch reverse auctions to secure electricity for the regulated market, with the goal of awarding long-term power purchase agreements (including to non-hydro renewables generators) by the end of March 2016.
It was reported in September 2015 that the Mexican government is considering building two new nuclear reactors in the country over the coming years. Details on the value of the projects and whether foreign investment would be sought for their realisation has not been disclosed.
With CFE's power transmission and distribution arm to be unbundled and subject to greater financial independence as a result of the reform of the Mexican electricity sector, we expect public investment into transmission and distribution assets to be a priority over the coming years to reduce power losses and increase operational efficiency.
In August 2015, Sener announced it will invest MXN6.500bn (USD330mn) between 2016 and 2019 for the development of smart grids in the country. To this end, the CFE plans to launch a first tender for smart-grid projects before end-2015.
The Mexico Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Mexico Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Mexico's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).