Mexico Power Report

Published 28 January 2015

  • 66 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Power Report

BMI View: Our outlook for Mexico ' s power sector remains bright; a view based o n the lib eralisation of the Mexican power marke t, the country's positive macroeconomic trajectory and strong investor interest in the market. We forecast total power g eneration to rise by 3. 6 % in 201 5 and we expect it to expand by an annual average of 3. 5 % through to 202 4 - driven by growing private investment as a result of tg power sector reforms and continued public tenders of generation and transmission projects . We also forecast an annual average power consumption growth of 4 % over our 10-year forecast period to 2024 . W e expect natural gas-fired generation to increase its already dominant position in the Mexican power mix , fuelled by cheap feedstock import s from the US and increasing dome stic supply . Finally, we forecast r enewables to experience significant growth over the next decade, although the power mix will remain heavily dependent on thermal generation.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Electricity tariffs for each type of consumer in March 2015 were significantly lower than a year earlier, according to the Mexican government. The Ministry of Energy quantified a reduction in tariffs of 18-26% for industrial consumers, 16% for commercial consumers, and 7.5% and 2% for residential consumers with high and low demand, respectively. Lower electricity prices will be a boon for Mexico's power-intensive manufacturing sector, supporting our forecast for the country's economy to expand by 3.3% in real terms in 2015.

  • We expect that growing availability of cheap, imported natural gas from the US, a larger gas pipeline network and expanding domestic gas production will push down electricity prices in Mexico. Strong growth in power generating capacity and improvements in the power transmission infrastructure will also increase efficiency and put downside pressures on tariffs.

  • On January 29, Mexico's state-owned...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Mexico Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic & Demographic Data (Mexico 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic & Demographic Data (Mexico 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Mexico Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
16
Electricity Consumption
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
28
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2017)
30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2018-2023)
30
Table: Mexico Transmission Lines, As Of March 2013
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Index
39
Rewards
40
Risks
41
Market Overview
42
Key Policies And Market Structure
42
Regulation And Competition
42
Sustainable Energy Policies
43
Pricing
45
Mexico Power Projects Database
45
Table: Mexico Key Power Projects
45
Competitive Landscape
50
Comisi-n Federal de Electricidad
51
Iberdrola
52
Union Fenosa
52
Regional Overview
53
Latin America Power Regional Overview
53
Glossary
59
Table: Glossary Of Terms
59
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Mexico Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Mexico Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Mexico's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc