BMI View: Positive results of Mexico ' s second long-term energy auction reaffirm our view that the country will be one of the most dynamic renewables markets in Latin America over the coming decade, second in size only to Brazil - but with a more predictable operational environment. Our optimistic outlook is underpinned by the country's strong commitment to developing renewable energy sources, large project pipeline and sound industry fundamentals.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.090||16.960||21.310||27.790||35.000||37.760||40.560|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||22.410||29.520||25.680||30.410||25.920||7.900||7.420|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||4,546.5||6,036.7||7,900.2||10,789.3||13,143.7||14,383.7||15,632.4|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||20.0||32.8||30.9||36.6||21.8||9.4||8.7|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We have upwardly revised our forecasts for Mexico's wind and solar power generation and capacity from 2018 to 2025, due to the success obtained by these technologies in the country's second long-term energy auction. We now forecast total non-hydro renewables capacity in Mexico to stand at 14.3 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 (up from around 6.0GW at the end of 2016) and 20.7GW in 2025, compared to our previous forecasts of 12.4GW and 18.6GW in 2020 and 2025, respectively.
Mexico's second long-term energy auction awarded renewables projects worth around USD4bn. The average price per MWh was USD33.5, which marked around 30% decline from the previous auction held in April 2016.
In October 2016, Mexican state-owned power company CFE published tender pre-bases for the first high-voltage direct current transmission line that will transport wind energy from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to central Mexico. The 600km line will have a voltage of 500kV and may transmit more than 3,000MW of electricity. The public-private partnership project will entail an investment of up to USD1.7bn and is expected to become operational in 2020.
In early November 2016, Enel Green Power Mexico, the Mexican subsidiary of Enel Green Powe r, connected two wind farms - Palo Alto (129MW) and Vientos (100MW) to Mexico's national grid.
The Mexico Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Mexico. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Mexico, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Mexico, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Mexico Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexico renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexico renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Mexico, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.