BM I View: This quarter we retained our optimistic outlook for Mexico's renewables industry. We believe the country's attractive regulatory environment, strong government support for renewable energy and good natural conditions for renewables generation will be the key drivers of growth for the sector. The positive investment sentiment and strengthening project pipeline ensures Mexico's renewables industry will be a strong performer in Latin America.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||10.792||13.383||15.189||17.202||19.363||24.564||28.068||30.562||32.693||35.014||37.359|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||10.402||24.013||13.492||13.259||12.559||26.861||14.266||8.883||6.974||7.099||6.697|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||3,895.1||5,341.9||6,534.6||7,973.7||9,524.9||10,448.8||11,417.8||12,434.7||13,469.1||14,560.7||15,666.4|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||19.4||37.1||22.3||22.0||19.5||9.7||9.3||8.9||8.3||8.1||7.6|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
According to Asociacion Mexicana de Energia Eolica reports in October 2015, the Mexican government has set a target to quadruple its wind capacity. The country will look to have 10GW of wind turbines in operation in the next three years, covering almost every region, up from 2.5GW in 2014. The increase forms part of a government plan to add 20GW of renewable energy by 2030.
With the development of the bulk of Mexico's geothermal resources left to independent power producers (IPPs), the country's Round Zero for geothermal power sites has boosted our view the private sector will increase its role in the Mexican electricity market. IPPs will also benefit from cooperation with the CFE when developing its new concessions.
In August 2015, Gestamp Wind Mexico II filed an environmental impact declaration for the 150MW Aguasnieves wind park in Ojocaliente, in the Mexican state of Zacatecas. Gestamp plans to build and operate the wind farm in the Palmillas, El Refugio and San Geronimo areas.
In August 2015, Prosolia Internacional De Mexico has also filed an application to develop a 30MW photovoltaic project in the protected area of El Gogorron in Villa de Reyes, San Luis Potosi.
Mexico's Juchitan de Zaragoza community has approved the construction of a 396MW wind park on the Tehuantepec isthmus, according to the state government of Oaxaca. Local company Energia Eolica del Sur is managing the project and plans to install 132 wind turbines in the region.
The Mexico Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Mexico. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Mexico, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Mexico, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Mexico Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexico renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexico renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Mexico, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.