Mexico Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Mexico Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Mexico's retail market is expected to p rove the regional outperformer in the short-to- medium term , with positive economic and labour trends supporting healthy growth in household income rates , which in turn will boost spending in a number of retail segments. The country is attracting a high level of international investor interest and we expect to see a large number of new retail units opening over the coming months, including the introduction of major international fashion and electronics brands to the market - reflecting growing consumer demand for non-essential and higher value items as disposable income rates rise. While some risk to investors does stem from ongoing security concerns and a reliance upon the health of the US economy, overall Mexico's retail market is expected to grow and diversify rapidly and as such presents a valuable opportunity for a range of retailers.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, INEGI Mexico

Key Views & Developments

  • Strong growth in labour-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and construction will lead to higher employment rates in Mexico, which will provide a valuable boost to average household income rates when measured in local currency terms in 2016, though we note currency movements will lead to a short-term contraction in average household income when measured in US dollar terms, reflecting the ongoing weakness of the Mexican peso.

  • Higher household income rates combined with improving access to credit and low inflation will in turn support robust growth in total household spending in 2016, again when measured in local currency terms, with total household spending reaching some MXN5,646bn (USD319bn). Banco de Mexico (Banxico) is expected to hold the benchmark overnight interest rate at 3.75% when it meets in late June, supporting our current forecasts.

  • A number of high profile retailers have announced plans to expand in the Mexican market. Luxury brand Dior opened its first store in the country in early 2016 following Bottega Veneta, Bulgari, TAG Heuer and Rolex, which have also entered the market. Swedish brand Make Up Store has also opened a new store in Mexico City, alongside other Swedish brand H&M, which has expanded rapidly in Mexico.

  • Further reflecting the expected growth in the Mexican retail segment, Walmart Mexico announced in May 2016 it plans to open over 1,000 new stores in Mexico and the wider Central America region over the next ten years.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Headline Retail Forecast
11
Table: Total Household Spending (Mexico 2013-2020)
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Mexico 2013-2020)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Mexico 2013-2020)
16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Mexico 2013-2020)
17
Retail Sector Forecast
19
Food, Drink & Tobacco
20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Mexico 2013-2020)
21
Clothing & Footwear
21
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Mexico 2013-2020)
22
Household Goods
22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Mexico 2013-2020)
23
Personal Care & Effects
23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Mexico 2013-2020)
24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
25
Table: Household Income Data (Mexico 2013-2020)
27
Table: Labour Market Data (Mexico 2013-2020)
29
Demographic Forecast
30
Table: Total Population (Mexico 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Babies (Mexico 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Young Children (Mexico 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Children (Mexico 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Mexico 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Young People (Mexico 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Mexico 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Mexico 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Young Adults (Mexico 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Mexico 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Urban (Mexico 2013-2020)
36
Industry Risk/Reward Index
37
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416
37
Mexico Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Competitive Landscape
47
Clothing & Footwear
47
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
47
Household Goods
48
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers
48
Electronics
48
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
48
Department Stores
49
Table: Selected Department Stores
49
E-Commerce
49
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers
49
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
50
Table: Selected Pharmacies and Drug Store
50
Glossary
51
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.