Mexico Retail Report

Published 02 February 2015

  • 62 pages
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$1,295.00
Mexico Retail Report

BMI View: Looking at our forecast period as a whole, total household spending is set to experience a steady growth rate, indicating positive conditions for future foreign investment within the Mexican retail sector between 2015 and 2019. Stronger purchasing power instigated by rising household incomes and rebounding consumer confidence looks to be a key driver of this trend. Moreover, the government ' s positive attitude towards free trade will allow for greater expediency of foreign investment.

Concentrating on the more immediate term, total household spending is forecast to rise from USD281bn in 2015 to USD301bn in 2016 which will contribute towards the continued development of the Mexican retail sector and provide a fertile environment for investors. Our expectation that household incomes will rise during our period is a key driver behind our projections for growing household spending as consumers will be awarded a greater amount of disposable income. Currently, we estimate the number of those earning USD10,000-plus to make up over 80% of the population and this figure is expected to rise to closer to 90% by the end of our forecast period in 2019. Greater disposable income increases consumer's purchasing power and, in Mexico, looks to be refocusing consumer demand towards non-essential purchases. This is evident as spending on less-essential sub-sectors such as clothing & footwear, recreation & culture and hotel & restaurants are all expected to increase their share of total household spending over our period. In anticipation of this, a number of retailers, including H&M, are expanding their portfolios in the country by opening new outlets whilst other retailers such as American Girl and Dunkin ' Donuts will be entering as new players.

Investment opportunities in non-essential sectors will be bolstered as those remaining in lower-income brackets also seek to purchase luxury items which is becoming increasingly possible due to the wider penetration of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Headline Retail Forecast
10
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending As A % Of GDP, 2011-2018
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
15
Retail Sector Forecast
17
Food And Drink
18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
19
Clothing And Footwear
20
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
20
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
22
Personal Care And Effects
22
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
23
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
25
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
27
Demographic Forecast
27
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: 21-Plus yrs, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
31
Macroeconomic Forecast
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
40
Retail Formats
42
Retail Subsectors
43
Fashion
45
Pharmacies
45
Tourism
45
Competitive Landscape
47
Department Stores
47
MGR
47
Consumer Electronics
49
Fashion
49
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
50
Glossary
51
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc