Mexico Retail Report

Published 23 April 2015

  • 62 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Mexico Retail Report

BMI View: Between 2015 and 2019, rising total household incomes, falling unemployment and the relative stability of the economy will continue to provide opportunity for foreign investment within the retail sector. The growing affluence of the population is a key driver behind our forecast that sub-sectors comprised largely of non-essentials will experience strong rates of growth, as demand increases, throughout the forecast period.

Total household spending is forecast to experience steady growth rates throughout our period, accelerating slightly towards the end, which will have positive implications on the Mexican retail sector, as well as on the economy as a whole. As the population as a whole become more affluent, the proportion of the population now meeting the middle-class earning criteria is rising, creating difference investment opportunities within the retail sector. Recreation and culture spending, restaurant and hotel spending, personal, insurance and other spending as well as spending on alcohol and tobacco are expect to experience the greatest growth rates between 2015 and 2019. All of these sub-sectors are predominantly comprised of non-essentials which demonstrates that retail spending is moving towards luxury purchases.

Rising incomes and falling unemployment, as well as a rebound in consumer confidence, are driving factors behind this trend. As tax and social contributions are expected to remain steady and the rate of inflation is forecast to rise at a moderate pace, consumers in Mexico will experience a greater amount of disposable income. Whilst development across all sub-sectors of the retail sector is expected throughout the forecast period, the less concentrated, non-essential sub-sectors look set to obtain the highest rates of growth. This is a positive sign for the economy as a whole and opens up further opportunity for investment, particularly for fashion retailers, hotel and restaurant chains, leisure and recreation retailers and...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Industry Forecast
12
Headline Retail Forecast
12
Table: Total Household Spending (Mexico 2012-2019)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Mexico 2012-2019)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Mexico 2012-2019)
15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Mexico 2012-2019)
17
Retail Sector Forecast
19
Food And Drink
19
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Mexico 2012-2019)
20
Clothing And Footwear
20
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Mexico 2012-2019)
21
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Mexico 2012-2019)
22
Personal Care And Effects
22
Table: Personal Care Spending (Mexico 2012-2019)
23
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Income Data (Mexico 2012-2019)
25
Table: Labour Market Data (Mexico 2012-2019)
27
Demographic Forecast
28
Table: Total Population (Mexico 2012-2019)
28
Table: Population: Babies (Mexico 2012-2019)
28
Table: Population: Young Children (Mexico 2012-2019)
29
Table: Population: Children (Mexico 2012-2019)
29
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Mexico 2012-2019)
29
Table: Population: Young People (Mexico 2012-2019)
30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Mexico 2012-2019)
30
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Mexico 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Young Adults (Mexico 2012-2019)
31
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Mexico 2012-2019)
32
Table: Population: Urban (Mexico 2012-2019)
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Mexico 2012-2019)
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index
40
Mexico Risk/Reward Index
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
42
Competitive Landscape
44
Department Stores
44
MGR
44
Consumer Electronics
45
Fashion
46
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
46
Glossary
47
Methodology
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
58
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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