Mexico Retail Report

Published 23 April 2015

  • 62 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Mexico Retail Report

BMI View: Between 2015 and 2019, rising total household incomes, falling unemployment and the relative stability of the economy will continue to provide opportunity for foreign investment within the retail sector. The growing affluence of the population is a key driver behind our forecast that sub-sectors comprised largely of non-essentials will experience strong rates of growth, as demand increases, throughout the forecast period.

Total household spending is forecast to experience steady growth rates throughout our period, accelerating slightly towards the end, which will have positive implications on the Mexican retail sector, as well as on the economy as a whole. As the population as a whole become more affluent, the proportion of the population now meeting the middle-class earning criteria is rising, creating difference investment opportunities within the retail sector. Recreation and culture spending, restaurant and hotel spending, personal, insurance and other spending as well as spending on alcohol and tobacco are expect to experience the greatest growth rates between 2015 and 2019. All of these sub-sectors are predominantly comprised of non-essentials which demonstrates that retail spending is moving towards luxury purchases.

Rising incomes and falling unemployment, as well as a rebound in consumer confidence, are driving factors behind this trend. As tax and social contributions are expected to remain steady and the rate of inflation is forecast to rise at a moderate pace, consumers in Mexico will experience a greater amount of disposable income. Whilst development across all sub-sectors of the retail sector is expected throughout the forecast period, the less concentrated, non-essential sub-sectors look set to obtain the highest rates of growth. This is a positive sign for the economy as a whole and opens up further opportunity for investment, particularly for fashion retailers, hotel and restaurant chains, leisure and recreation retailers and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Headline Retail Forecast
10
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending As A % Of GDP, 2011-2018
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
15
Retail Sector Forecast
17
Food And Drink
18
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
19
Clothing And Footwear
20
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
20
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
22
Personal Care And Effects
22
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
23
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
24
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
25
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
27
Demographic Forecast
27
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
28
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
29
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: 21-Plus yrs, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
31
Macroeconomic Forecast
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
40
Retail Formats
42
Retail Subsectors
43
Fashion
45
Pharmacies
45
Tourism
45
Competitive Landscape
47
Department Stores
47
MGR
47
Consumer Electronics
49
Fashion
49
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
50
Glossary
51
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc