BMI View: Growing household income will continue to drive growth in the middle class and uplift the Mexican population over the 2016-2020 forecast period. Rising employment and a stable political and economic outlook will dampe n volatility in the country and foster steady growth in household spending , as more disposable income becomes available to consumers , despite the effect of recent interest rate hikes . Together , these factors will expand the consumer market and bolster consumer confidence, c reating a favourable environment for retailers as internal consumption and economic activity expand. Growth across all sub-sectors will be strong , but e-commerce and online sales can be expected to see explosive upward trajectory. Additionally , the food & drinks sub-sector will continue to see the emergence of higher value premium brands as consumers seek more aspirational products and brands .
|Headline Household Spending|
Key Views & Developments
We expect household consumption to continue to improve, thanks to a stronger labour market (unemployment stands at 4.1%, beating the US's 5.0%), and higher wages. This will be further supported by low inflation), which will help support real purchasing power.
Growing consumer acceptance and demand for online retail has the potential to radically disrupt and transform the existing business environment and retail formats. Amazon has invested heavily to expand the market and this will likely cannibalise heavily on market share from Sear, Woolworths and Blockbusters. This will additionally intensify competition in convenience and grocery retail sectors and place pressure on margins for retailers like Walmart.
Banco de Mexico (the Mexican reserve bank) raise interest rates in December 2015 after following the FED increase, and further hikes can be expected throughout the year. However, the weak external environment and low inflation will keep interest expansion subdued and will remain offset by the growing economic competitiveness internationally of the Mexican economy, that will fuel strong household income growth. Net household income is set to rise 3.1% to USD18,358 in 2016, stimulating household spending which is forecast to see 45.2% growth between 2016 and 2020.
The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.