BMI remains optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. As a result, we retain a cautious optimism towards the country's shipping sector. Mexico's real GDP growth will accelerate in 2015, driven by an improvement private consumption, stronger growth of manufacturing exports, and a recovery in public investment. Furthermore, we expect an uptick in private fixed investment into the country's recently liberalised energy sector, as the first oil licensing round begins in H115. We believe real GDP growth in Mexico bottomed in H114, coming in at 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), and expect the economy to sustain a recovery in the coming quarters. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2015.
Following ongoing contractions in the construction sector and a slump in the growth of exports of manufactured goods in late 2013 and early 2014 due to weather-related disruptions to production, we expect economic activity to reaccelerate in the coming months. Stronger public investment into infrastructure, after a government transition last year resulted in spending delays, will ensure the construction sector recovers from the contraction it experienced in 2013.
Ongoing signs of stronger US consumption bode well for Mexico's manufacturing sector and we expect manufactured goods, especially those related to the autos segment, to pick up in the coming quarters. An improvement in construction and manufacturing will bolster labour dynamics, which underpin our expectations for private consumption growth to accelerate both in 2015.
Headline Industry Data
Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2015 forecast to be 7.2%, reaching 32.8mn tonnes.
Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2015 forecast to be 7.2%, reaching 22.7mn tonnes.
Mexico trade real growth forecast at 5.5% in 2015.
Key Trends And Developments
Lázaro Cárdenas To Strengthen Role In Mexico And...