Morocco Country Risk Report

Published 25 February 2015 | Quarterly

  • 38 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Morocco Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manufacturing hub for the European market, coupled with a burgeoning tourism industry, should bode well for Morocco's underlying growth momentum in the next few years.

  • Morocco will be one of the best economic performers in the MENA region in 2015, partly by reaping the rewards of lower oil prices. We have raised our real GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.5%, from 4.0% previously.

  • The Moroccan economy is one of the best placed in the MENA region to benefit from the oil price slump, and we forecast the current account deficit to narrow to just 1.9% of GDP over 2015 - a sizeable improvement from 5.5% in 2014. These savings will ease the liquidity strains that have persisted since 2012, leading to an improvement in Moroccan banks' operating environment.

  • Morocco continues to benefit from the global trend of tumbling bond yields, as well as its stronger investor profile compared to other North African countries. That said, we retain our view that most of the gains are now behind us, with upside pressure on Morocco's Eurobond yields set to increase over 2015.

  • We believe that Morocco is ready to transition towards a more flexible exchange rate policy by 2017, a move that would lead to a depreciation of the dirham against both the euro and the dollar over the remainder of our forecast period. Moving away from the current basket peg system would help to improve export competitiveness and reduce the country's high labour costs.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Our forecasts for both economic activity and fiscal policy assume that Morocco will benefit from significant inflows of foreign aid from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other organisations over the coming years. Should this assistance fail to materialise, it would pose serious downside risks to the country's...

The Morocco Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Morocco. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Morocco's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Morocco's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Morocco's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Morocco, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Morocco Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Morocco' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Morocco through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Morocco Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Morocco and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Morocco, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Morocco over the next 5-years?

BMI's Morocco country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Morocco Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Morocco.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Morocco's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Morocco’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Morocco's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Morocco?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Morocco against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Morocco’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express