Morocco Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Morocco Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manufacturing hub for the European market and increasingly to West Africa, as well as relative security compared to the rest of the MENA region, will bode well for Morocco's underlying growth momentum in the next few years. The all-important agricultural sector will nevertheless remain exposed to weather, resulting in significant volatility in headline growth.

  • Morocco's foreign policy will remain stable, aimed at strengthening its relationship with the EU and the GCC and looking to West Africa for trade and investment opportunities. The Western Sahara issue will remain at the forefront of Rabat's foreign policy agenda, and we do not see any significant progress taking place on this issue in the near future.

  • Morocco will underperform in North Africa in 2016, on the back of a lower than average harvest, which will significantly impact headline growth directly and indirectly through private consumption. We nevertheless maintain a positive outlook for improvements in the external sector, as the country will continue to attract a lot of interest from foreign investors. We forecast real GDP growth to reach 2.0% in 2016, well below the 4.4% estimated for 2015.

  • The gradual coming on-stream of new energy sources over the next five years - as part of the National Energy Plan 2020 - will reduce pressures on Morocco's current account and boost the country's attractiveness for foreign investors. This structural evolution will benefit the country's economic growth over the next decade.

  • Average annual inflation in Morocco will remain close to 1.6% over 2016, similarly to 2015, as rising food prices from a lower than expected harvest are compensated by a decrease in household demand. This will allow the Central Bank to maintain its current benchmark interest rate at 2.50% throughout the year.

Key Risks

  • Our forecasts for both economic activity and fiscal policy assume that Morocco will benefit from significant inflows of foreign direct investment and foreign aid from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other organisations over the coming years. Should this fail to materialise, it would pose serious downside risks to the country's outlook.

  • The export sector remains highly vulnerable to any downturn in eurozone economic growth.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Morocco 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.4 4.4 2.0 3.3
Nominal GDP, USDbn 109.9 100.5 104.9 113.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.6 0.6 2.5 2.0
Exchange rate MAD/USD, eop 9.10 9.90 9.80 9.50
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.4 -3.3 -3.2 -2.7
Current account balance, % of GDP -5.5 -1.9 -1.6 -1.5
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Poor Harvest Worsening Growth Outlook
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Pension Reform Another Sign Of Market-Friendly Orientation
11
TABLE: MAIN REFORMS TO THE PENSION SYSTEM
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Exports To Continue Outperforming
13
TABLE: SELECTED AUTOS AND AERONAUTICS PROJECTS ANNOUNCED IN 2015
14
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy
16
Inflation Picking Up From H216
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Moroccan Economy To 2025
19
Diversified Economic Base Underpins Bright Future
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Spat With EU Will Not Last
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Challenges For The Coming Decade, Scenarios For Change
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES
30
Trade Procedures And Governance
31
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
31
TABLE: EXPORT AND IMPORT DOCUMENTS
32
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
32
Vulnerability To Crime
33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
37
Global Macro Outlook
37
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
38
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
39
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41

Assess your risk exposure in Morocco with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Morocco with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report