BMI View: We uphold our view that Morocco ' s pharmaceutical market will become more attractive for multinational drugmakers to invest in. As part of a wider bid to stimulate industrial development in Morocco, the domestic pharmaceutical industry will be given a significant boost as plans to strengthen local manufacturing capabilities come into fruition. The Moroccan government is also committed to improving the country's regulatory system and issues surrounding corruption. However, an uncertain drug-pricing environme nt - a result of price cuts and tax hikes on medicines - will be an issue for potential investors in the market.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: MAD13.39bn (USD1.37bn) in 2015 to MAD14.19bn (USD1.45bn) in 2016; +6.0% in local currency terms and +5.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards in local currency terms from last quarter .
Healthcare: MAD56.70bn (USD5.81bn) in 2015 to MAD59.51bn (USD6.08bn) in 2016; +5.0% in local currency terms and +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.489||1.373||1.449||1.547||1.662||1.788||1.910|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.36||1.37||1.38||1.37||1.38||1.38||1.38|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||23.1||23.6||23.8||24.1||24.4||24.7||25.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||6.439||5.815||6.078||6.416||6.809||7.239||7.646|
Morocco is viewed as a moderately attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. In our Q117 proprietary Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) table, Morocco is ranked as the 12th most attractive market in the region out of the 33 countries assessed. The country scores 46.2 out of 100, maintaining its score from last quarter. The market's constraints include low per capita consumption (its spending per capita score is 2.4 out of 12) and an underdeveloped reimbursement system, although such factors are to a degree offset by a relatively predictable operating environment and strong intellectual property rights.
In October 2016, Cooper Pharma Laboratories signed a deal for the construction of a 10,000-meter square antibiotic manufacturing site in Rwanda's Gasabo District, as part of the Moroccan company's global strategy.
In the same month, the African Development Bank approved a USD20mn equity investment in the Rx Healthcare Fund (RxHF), which aims to meet growing demands for specialised but affordable healthcare services across Africa. Morocco will be one of the first countries to receive the fund, which will provide capital to companies that show high potential for growth in diagnostics, hospitals and pharmaceuticals.
In September 2016, King Mohammed VI launched the construction of a MAD37mn (USD3.7mn) medical centre in Tangier as part of the Mohammed V Foundation for Solidarity action plan.
BMI Economic View
In 2016, Morocco's real GDP growth will decelerate to 0.9%, its slowest pace since 1997 on the back of a sharp decline in agricultural production. Economic expansion will recover in 2017 to 3.7%, and the 2016 dip should not mask the long-term positive trajectory of the Moroccan economy.
BMI Political View
The Justice and Development Party (PJD)'s victory in the legislative elections in Morocco will ensure policy continuity over the coming years, and bodes well for the country's economic development. With the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) having more than doubled its strength in the House of Representatives, the PJD will face a stronger parliamentary opposition, but this will not prevent it from ruling effectively in a coalition.
The Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Morocco pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Morocco, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Moroccan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Moroccan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Morocco.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.