BMI View: The Moroccan government's strategy of introducing pharma-clusters in an attempt to strengthen the domestic pharmaceutical industry will see the market develop into a more attractive investment destination for multinational drugmakers. The use of pharma-clusters to boost local production capabilities is an increasingly common trend across the emerging markets, yielding productivity gains and improving access to medicines on a national scale. However, additional plans to reform the regulatory and pricing system remain dubious, given the government's poor track record of successfully implementing past proposals.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: MAD13.39bn (USD1.37bn) in 2015 to MAD14.29bn (USD1.44bn) in 2016; +6.8% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter .
Healthcare: MAD56.70bn (USD5.81bn) in 2015 to MAD59.42bn (USD6.00bn) in 2016; +4.8% in local currency terms and +3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.490||1.370||1.440||1.560||1.700||1.840||1.970|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.36||1.37||1.38||1.39||1.40||1.40||1.41|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||23.1||23.6||24.1||24.5||24.9||25.4||25.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||6.440||5.810||6.000||6.370||6.820||7.240||7.640|
Morocco is viewed as a moderately attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. In our Q416 proprietary Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) table, Morocco is ranked as the 12th most attractive market in the region out of the 31 countries assessed. The country scores 46.2 out of 100, improving slightly on last quarter's score of 45.5. The market's constraints include low per capita consumption (Spending Per Capita score of 2.4 out of 12) and an underdeveloped reimbursement system, although such factors are to a degree offset by a relatively predictable operating environment.
In July 2016, doctors took to the streets in Rabat to protest against a law that would allow mutual health insurance companies to create their own care facilities and pharmacies, fearing the law would oppose the principle of competition and hurt existing healthcare practices.
Also in July, the Ministry of Health announced that it will reduce the prices of medicines used to treat 139 chronic diseases including inflammatory and infectious diseases, digestive system diseases, high cholesterol, asthma, and various infections.
In May 2016, the Moroccan government announced the completion of a number of agreements with local pharmaceutical associations, including plans to expand domestic manufacturing capacities on a national scale through the rollout of the country's first pharma-clusters.
The International Diabetes Federation has reported that there were over 1.6mn cases of diabetes in Morocco in 2015 and that the number of deaths in adults (aged 20-79) due to the disease was 9,473 in the same year.
Moroccan pharmaceutical company Cooper International announced it will relocate to the Dubai Science Park HQ tower in the first quarter of 2017.
BMI Economic View
Morocco's outlook remains positive despite a slump in growth in 2016, as exports and services continue growing at a relatively fast pace. A boom in non-primary sector growth is nonetheless off the cards, given that SMEs will continue to struggle accessing credit and that tourism growth will remain subdued. We forecast real GDP growth to fall from 4.5% in 2015 to 0.7% in 2016, before picking up to 3.3% in 2017, as primary sector growth turns positive again.
BMI Political View
By re-joining the African Union, Morocco aims to increase its diplomatic reach on the continent. This marks a radical shift from the empty-seat strategy Morocco had adopted since 1984. Rabat will use its newly-found lobbying power to push forward its view on Western Sahara and increase its economic influence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Morocco pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Morocco, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Moroccan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Moroccan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Morocco.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.