BMI View: We hold an optimistic outlook for the Moroccan pharmaceutical market despite the economic slowdown over 2016. We expect the government ' s increasing efforts to improve healthcare coverage coupled with the country ' s growing non-communicable disease burden will drive the demand for medicines in long-term. A major downside risk to our forecast is the uncertainty surrounding drug prices as a result of price cuts and increased taxation on medicines in recent years, which will negatively impact the attractiveness of the market to multinational drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: MAD13.39bn (USD1.40bn) in 2015 to MAD14.34bn (USD1.46bn) in 2016; +7.1% in local currency terms and +4.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast inline with last quarter .
Healthcare: MAD59.15bn (USD6.19bn) in 2015 to MAD62.83bn (USD6.38bn) in 2016; +6.2% in local currency terms and +3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.489||1.401||1.456||1.619||1.794||1.951||2.082|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.36||1.37||1.38||1.39||1.40||1.40||1.41|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||22.5||22.6||22.8||23.0||23.2||23.3||23.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||6.609||6.190||6.382||7.038||7.744||8.361||8.864|
Morocco is viewed as a moderately attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. In our Q216 proprietary Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) table, Morocco is ranked as the 12th most attractive market in the region out of the 31 countries assessed, scoring 45.5 out of 100 (43.0 in Q116). The market's constraints include low per capita consumption and an underdeveloped reimbursement system, although such factors are to a degree offset by a relatively predictable operating environment.
In February 2016, Human Rights Watch reported that more than 62,000 Moroccans need palliative care every year and that despite government efforts to improve end-of-life care, only two public hospitals (located in Casablanca and Rabat) are capable of delivering this health service.
In January 2016, the Moroccan Health Ministry announced it has taken preventative measures against the possible spread of the Zika virus to the country and that no cases have yet been reported.
In November 2015, the Moroccan Association of the pharmaceutical industry (AMIP) and Morocco Export visited Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa to explore market access procedures and export opportunities in Ethiopia.
In November 2015, Private equity firm Abraaj Group acquired a majority stake in the Centre de Traitement Al Kindy (Al Kindy) in Casablanca, as well as in the Clinique Specialisee Menara (Menara) in Marrakech, which together, form the largest private integrated network of imaging diagnostics and cancer treatment centres in Morocco.
BMI Economic View
Morocco's economic growth will slow down significantly over 2016, as agricultural production collapses on the back of a drought. On the upside, exports will continue to outperform, and investment will remain elevated, as the country pushes forward with its plan to become a regional exporting hub between Europe and Africa. As a result, we forecast growth to reach only 2.0% over 2016, compared to 4.4% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The diplomatic crisis between Morocco and the European Union related to the Western Sahara will subside rapidly, as both parties will overlook the issue to work towards deeper political and economic cooperation. As a result, Morocco will continue to increase its diplomatic importance in the MENA region, and remain a central ally for the EU.
The Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Morocco pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Morocco, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Moroccan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Moroccan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Morocco.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.