BMI View: We expect that the strength of the euro against the Moroccan d irham, combined with the increasing number of low-cost airlines and routes between European countries and Morocco, will continue to drive up the number of inbound arrivals in the next five years. However, as the government fails to provide adequate incentives for banks and private developers to invest in the Moroccan tourism industry, the country lags behind in its plans to start developing untapped tourist areas in order to take the pressure off more saturated ones. This includes the development of luxury resorts, which the government is trying to promote to diversify its offer ing to European tourists and, in the longer term, Asians.
|Total arrivals, '000||9,375.16||10,046.26||10,088.22||10,298.64||10,448.19||10,608.71||10,742.81||10,785.23|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||0.4||7.2||0.4||2.1||1.5||1.5||1.3||0.4|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, MADbn||19.75||21.84||22.91||24.71||26.53||28.48||30.78||33.23|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, MADbn, % y-o-y||4.7||10.6||4.9||7.9||7.3||7.4||8.1||7.9|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn||2.3||2.6||2.7||2.6||2.7||3.0||3.4||3.7|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-1.8||13.5||4.9||-5.9||4.6||13.0||12.0||9.9|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||8.49||8.83||8.95||8.67||8.89||9.32||9.79||10.35|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||-6.7||4.0||1.3||-3.1||2.5||4.9||5.0||5.7|
|International tourism receipts, MADbn||73.34||74.31||75.29||83.64||87.96||87.67||88.75||92.16|
|International tourism receipts, MADbn, % y-o-y||-0.5||1.3||1.3||11.1||5.2||-0.3||1.2||3.8|
Key Trends And Forecasts
We forecast inbound arrivals to increase from 10.2mn in 2015 to 10.7mn in 2019, with strong growth in the short term as European countries seek to take advantage of the strength of the euro against the local currency as well as of the cheap travel options between Europe and Morocco. Over the longer term, however, we expect this growth to be weaker, going from 2.09% growth in 2015 to 1.26% in 2018 and 0.39% by 2019. This will be essentially a result of the lack of diversification of the offer to European tourists.
The Moroccan industry is well developed, although it is currently so only in some parts of the countries. Cities like Marrakesh, Rabat and Casablanca already benefit from a lot of tourism development, hotels and restaurants, including catering to luxury tourists (which accounts for the increase in industry value). Others, such as Fes, Meknes and Ifrane have been identified by the government as opportunities for development but have thus far not received the level of investment originally desired. There are many opportunities to expand the sector in Morocco, but the government needs to implement the right policies with the right incentives to attract the required investment.
The Morocco Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Morocco Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Moroccan tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Morocco to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Moroccan tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Moroccan tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Morocco.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.