BMI View: We are forecasting modest growth in Mozambique's construction industry over our 10-year forecast period up to 2025, supported primarily by investment into coal export infrastructure as global demand for the commodity remains stable. While the development of the country's nascent gas sector would be a boon for the industry, we have not priced major developments into our forecasts as the risk of delay remains high.
Forecast & Industry Developments
This quarter we are maintaining our forecast for 5.7% real growth in 2017 as budgetary pressures and the country's debt crisis weigh on the government's ability to deploy capital for road and social infrastructure projects.
The industry is projected to expand by 6.5% in real terms over our full forecast period up to 2025, supported by continued investment in coal export infrastructure and revenue from natural gas exports.
We have elected not to factor in the build of major gas export infrastructure as the potential for delays in developing these projects is high owing to the strained financial position of hydrocarbons companies and the risky operating environment.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
|Construction industry value, MZNbn||20.40||25.47||29.69||34.65||40.27|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||5.70||5.50||5.45||8.35||7.30|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||2.4||2.5||2.5||2.5||2.3|
Mozambique remains in 13th place out of 18 markets in our Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index for Sub-Saharan Africa. Its overall score this quarter is 35.5 out of 100, keeping it below the regional average of 39.0.
The market's Country Risks score has deteriorated this quarter to 35.3 from 37.1, with the slow pace of much-needed economic reform and the 2016 hidden debt scandal weighing heavily on investor sentiment towards the market.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Mozambique Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Mozambique Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mozambican infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Mozambique to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mozambican infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mozambican infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.