BMI View: The Mozambican government's commitment to restructuring its debt burden as a result of pressure from the country ' s creditors following the debt scandal will lead to implementation of spending cuts across various sectors including healthcare. This will in turn add additional headwinds to pharmaceutical growth over the short term on top of a collection of long-standing issues , including poor drug regulation and political unrest. We continue to view Mozambique as one of the least attractive pharmaceutical markets in the world.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: MZN8.28bn (USD210mn) in 2015 to MZN8.86bn (USD144mn) in 2016; +7.0% in local currency and -31.3 % in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards in US dollar terms from last quarter.
Healthcare: MZN38.13bn (USD966mn) in 2015 to MZN40.60bn (USD660mn) in 2016; +6.5% in local currency and -31.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards in US dollar terms from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.242||0.210||0.144||0.122||0.124||0.126||0.131|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.44||1.42||1.29||1.17||1.09||1.02||0.93|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||21.2||21.7||21.8||21.9||22.0||22.1||22.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.143||0.966||0.660||0.558||0.563||0.571||0.590|
Mozambique scored 23.8 out of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q117, unchanged from last quarter. The country's score is reflective of its small market size (market expenditure score of 2.0 out of 20) and poor regulatory framework. Mozambique scores well below the regional average for every indicator in our index and is ranked the second lowest out of 33 pharmaceutical markets in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, sitting between Angola (21.3) and Zimbabwe (25.0).
In October 2016, the Mozambican President published the malaria initiative operational plan (PMI) for FY17, proposing a USD29mn budget to combat the mosquito-borne disease in a range of interventional areas including but not limited to insecticide treated net distribution, monitoring, indoor residual spraying and operational research.
Norway's Foreign Minister Borge Brende expressed his country's willingness to diversify investments in Mozambique in new areas including healthcare while visiting the African nation in October 2016.
Also in October, Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi inaugurated the new USD55mn Quelimane Central Hospital in the capital of Zambezia province, the largest hospital to be built since the country's independence in 1975.
The northern Mozambican city of Nampula health authorities began a vaccination campaign against cholera in October 2017, involving 400,000 doses of the oral vaccine supplied by the WHO.
According to Indian Minister for Chemical and Fertilizers, India is aiming to establish reverse Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Mozambique, primarily for the pharmaceutical and fertilizer sector, with discussions said to be in the preliminary stage.
BMI Economic View
A commitment to austere fiscal policy in a bid to stabilise the government's debt burden will see a narrowing of the budget deficit over the coming quarters, despite constrained revenue growth. While this will gradually improve the sustainability of the country's debt burden, it poses downside risks to growth and political stability.
BMI Political View
The renewed commitment to consolidate its fiscal position will force far more uncomfortable cuts over the near future, covering both productive capital expenditure and the long-favoured military budget. As the cuts begin to weigh on economic activity, we believe RENAMO (The Mozambican National Resistance) will escalate their campaign to destabilise the government's position, increasing attacks as they look to capitalise on the lack of resources at the military's disposal.
The Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mozambique pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Mozambique, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.