Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Mozambique has a high-risk low-reward pharmaceutical market, which suffers from poor regulation, low per-capita spending and a high abundance of counterfeit medicines in circulation. Further , ongoing political violence and lack of transparency will continue discourage multinational drugmakers from setting up operations in the country despite the long term r evenue earning opportunities present within the market .

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals: MZN8.28bn (USD210mn) in 2015 to MZN9.01bn (USD180mn) in 2016; +8.8% in local currency and -14.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly form last quarter.

  • Healthcare: MZN38.13bn (USD970mn) in 2015 to MZN40.64bn (USD800mn) in 2016; +6.6% in local currency and -16.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Mozambique 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.240 0.210 0.180 0.170 0.170 0.180 0.190
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.44 1.42 1.34 1.25 1.17 1.10 1.02
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.6
Health spending, USDbn 1.140 0.970 0.800 0.750 0.730 0.760 0.800

Risk/Reward Index

Mozambique has scored 27.4 out of 100 - just above Zambia (26.3) - in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q316, lower than last quarter's score of 31.0. The country scores well below the regional average for every indicator in our matrix and is ranked 28th out of 31 pharmaceutical markets in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region.

Latest Updates

  • In May 2016, the donor group known as Programme Aid Partners suspended direct support of Mozambique's budget following revelations of more than USD1bn in undisclosed government guaranteed loans.

  • In April 2016, the Mozambican Health Ministry estimated the number of its citizens suffering from diabetes to be around 1.5mn, based on 2005 figures and the increase in population since then.

  • In April 2016, the Mozambican Health Minister revealed that the number of notified cases of malaria had increased by just over 10% in 2015, although deaths from the disease fell 26% from 2014.

  • Zimbabwe aims to eradicate malaria in Maputo by 2020 through increased efforts and a three-phase plan, consisting of fumigation against mosquitoes, medication and monitoring of population.

BMI Economic View

The affirmation that the Mozambican government has withheld information regarding its debt burden to external creditors reinforces concerns over transparency and has negative ramifications for the economic outlook. We have downgraded our real GDP growth projections to 5.4% and 5.2% for 2016 and 2017 respectively, from our previous forecasts of 6.3% and 6.8%.

BMI Political View

President Filipe Nyusi of Mozambique will not enjoy any notable success from his decision to extend an olive branch to the leader of RENAMO, Afonso Dhlakama by way of an invitation to talks aimed at ending the current spate of violence. Instead, attacks will continue to be carried out by both RENAMO, and forces acting on behalf of the ruling FRELIMO.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Mozambique 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
10
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Mozambique 2012-2020)
12
Healthcare Market Forecast
13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Mozambique 2012-2020)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Mozambique 2012-2020)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Mozambique 2012-2020)
16
Industry Risk Reward Index
17
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
17
Mozambique Risk/Reward Index
25
Rewards
25
Risks
25
Regulatory Review
26
Regulatory Development
26
Intellectual Property Issues
27
Pricing Regime
27
Market Overview
29
Healthcare Sector
29
Clinical Trials
30
Epidemiology
30
Competitive Landscape
33
Research-Based Industry
33
Pharmaceutical Distribution
34
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
34
Company Profile
35
Sociedade Mo-ambicana de Medicamentos (SMM)
35
Demographic Forecast
37
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mozambique 1990-2025)
38
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mozambique 1990-2025)
38
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mozambique 1990-2025)
39
Table: Population By Age Group (Mozambique 1990-2025)
39
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mozambique 1990-2025)
40
Glossary
42
Methodology
44
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
44
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
44
Notes On Methodology
45
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
46
Index Overview
47
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
47
Indicator Weightings
48

The Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mozambique pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Mozambique, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.