BMI View: Mozambique has a high-risk low-reward pharmaceutical market, which suffers from poor regulation, low per-capita spending and a high abundance of counterfeit medicines in circulation. Further , ongoing political violence and lack of transparency will continue discourage multinational drugmakers from setting up operations in the country despite the long term r evenue earning opportunities present within the market .
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: MZN8.28bn (USD210mn) in 2015 to MZN9.01bn (USD180mn) in 2016; +8.8% in local currency and -14.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly form last quarter.
Healthcare: MZN38.13bn (USD970mn) in 2015 to MZN40.64bn (USD800mn) in 2016; +6.6% in local currency and -16.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.240||0.210||0.180||0.170||0.170||0.180||0.190|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.44||1.42||1.34||1.25||1.17||1.10||1.02|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||21.2||21.7||22.2||22.6||23.0||23.3||23.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.140||0.970||0.800||0.750||0.730||0.760||0.800|
Mozambique has scored 27.4 out of 100 - just above Zambia (26.3) - in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q316, lower than last quarter's score of 31.0. The country scores well below the regional average for every indicator in our matrix and is ranked 28th out of 31 pharmaceutical markets in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region.
In May 2016, the donor group known as Programme Aid Partners suspended direct support of Mozambique's budget following revelations of more than USD1bn in undisclosed government guaranteed loans.
In April 2016, the Mozambican Health Ministry estimated the number of its citizens suffering from diabetes to be around 1.5mn, based on 2005 figures and the increase in population since then.
In April 2016, the Mozambican Health Minister revealed that the number of notified cases of malaria had increased by just over 10% in 2015, although deaths from the disease fell 26% from 2014.
Zimbabwe aims to eradicate malaria in Maputo by 2020 through increased efforts and a three-phase plan, consisting of fumigation against mosquitoes, medication and monitoring of population.
BMI Economic View
The affirmation that the Mozambican government has withheld information regarding its debt burden to external creditors reinforces concerns over transparency and has negative ramifications for the economic outlook. We have downgraded our real GDP growth projections to 5.4% and 5.2% for 2016 and 2017 respectively, from our previous forecasts of 6.3% and 6.8%.
BMI Political View
President Filipe Nyusi of Mozambique will not enjoy any notable success from his decision to extend an olive branch to the leader of RENAMO, Afonso Dhlakama by way of an invitation to talks aimed at ending the current spate of violence. Instead, attacks will continue to be carried out by both RENAMO, and forces acting on behalf of the ruling FRELIMO.
The Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mozambique pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Mozambique, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.