BMI View: The Mozambican health sector has suffered from years of neglect and the damage caused by a devastatingly long civil war. In recent years, the government has shown its commitment to improving the country ' s healthcare infrastructure and we expect increasing public expenditure , coupled with a high disease burden , to continue driving the demand for medicines over the long-term. However, we note that weak intellectual property protection and a poor regulatory environment continue to plague the market . These issues are unlikely to be sufficiently addressed in the foreseeable future, especially considering the increasingly tense political climate.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: MZN8.28bn (USD210mn) in 2015 to MZN9.02bn (USD184mn) in 2016; +8.9% in local currency and -12.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: MZN38.89bn (USD985mn) in 2015 to MZN43.15bn (USD881mn) in 2016; +10.9% in local currency and -10.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.242||0.210||0.184||0.194||0.205||0.218||0.234|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.48||1.49||1.50||1.45||1.36||1.28||1.19|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||21.7||21.3||20.9||20.5||20.2||20.0||19.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.116||0.985||0.881||0.942||1.013||1.094||1.186|
Mozambique has scored 31.0 out of 100 - just above Cote d'Ivoire (30.4) - in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q216, increasing from last quarter's score of 28.1. The country scores well below the regional average for every indicator in our matrix and is ranked 25th out of 31 pharmaceutical markets in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region.
In December 2015, the Mozambican parliament passed the Economic and Social Plan and 2016 State Budget where just over 10% of expenditure is expected to go towards health. The opposition RENAMO party has criticised the budget as being heavily militarised.
In November 2015, the Mozambican health ministry launched a new polio vaccine in the Manhica district of Maputo province. The ministry is investing around MZN275.5mn (USD5.3mn) to buy the vaccine.
High costs and a deteriorating health sector have lead to an increasing number of Zimbabweans seeking health assistance in neighbouring Mozambique owing to the country's better health services, medicine prices and availability.
BMI Economic View
Although import growth will decelerate in Mozambique in 2016, further depreciation of the metical will see the current account deficit deepen for the second successive year. However, low commodity prices and the ensuing challenges faced in financing ongoing LNG and infrastructure projects will limit growth in the capital and financial account surplus.
BMI Political View
Political risk will remain elevated in Mozambique in the coming year with an escalation of tensions between the ruling FRELIMO and opposition RENAMO party increasing the threat of violent events.
The Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mozambique pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Mozambique, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mozambican pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.