BMI View: Mozambican power generation growth is forecast to be subdued throughout our forecast period as delays to power plants are occurring across the board. Further gas exploration still provides ample opportunities for increase in gas-fired generation and German investment into power infrastructure will provide the opportunity for an increase in electrification and quality of electricity supply.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||21.552||22.587||22.648||22.718||22.760||22.825||22.876|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||13.5||14.4||15.4||17.6||18.7||19.8||21.6|
|Capacity, Net, MW||4,087.6||4,185.2||4,185.9||4,530.9||6,036.4||6,036.4||6,036.4|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
British and Chinese companies, Ncondezi Energy and Shanghai Electric Power (SEP), have entered into a joint development agreement (JDA) for the development of the Ncondezi coal mine and power plant in the Tete province. Due to a change in generation technology, the companies will reportedly have to reapply for environmental approval for the planned 300MW coal-fired plant.
We have cut our thermal generation forecasts down from almost 7TWh to an of 1.92TWh for our forecast period, due to currently predicted delays for coal-fired generation coming online, slower development of gas-fired plants as well as more moderate growth expectations in thermal generation for commissioned power plants.
The Cahora Bassa hydropower dam has recorded its highest level of output yet, generating up to 16.9TWh in 2015.
All of Mozambique's hydropower projects are reportedly delayed, with the expectation from the Mozambique being that further investment into thermal power will provide a renewed boost to hydropower projects as well. We therefore do not currently forecast any new hydropower capacity coming online within our forecast period.
The German government has stated that it will provide up to USD32mn aimed at supporting projects that will improve Mozambican electricity supply. USD22mn will be allocated for the transmission line between Mozambique and Malawi, with the remaining USD10mn assigned to the Electricidade de Mocambique's (EDM) Short-term Investment Plan (STIP).
Mozambique is currently exporting 100MW of electricity to neighbouring Zimbabwe at over USD.015 per kWh.
The Mozambique Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Mozambique Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mozambique to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Mozambique's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).