BMI View: Power generation growth in Mozambique will be largely stagnant over our 10-year forecast period due to project delays and pricing issues. Opportunities for thermal power investment exist due to domestic coal and gas resources . Hydropower dominating the power sector means the country is vulnerable to power cuts in periods of decreased rainfall or droughts.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||21.550||20.870||20.930||21.000||21.050||21.100||21.150|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||13.5||14.4||15.4||17.7||18.7||19.8||21.6|
|Capacity, Net, MW||4,087.6||4,185.2||4,185.9||4,186.1||4,186.4||4,186.5||4,187.1|
Latest Updates A nd Structural Trends
Ncondezi Energy and Shanghai Electric Power (SEP) have signed a shareholders' agreement regarding the 300 megawatt (MW) Ncondezi coal-fired power plant. We are awaiting more concrete updates on the plant and awaiting construction before factoring it into our forecasts.
The Benga coal-fired power plant is still being planned by the Indian consortium International Coal Ventures (ICVL). The group has reportedly asked Indian state-owned companies National Thermal Power Corporation and Coal India to return to the venture, as they had previously left due to differing coal requirements from the steel companies in the venture. We will include it in our forecasts if evidence of progress is shown.
Output at the Cahora Bassa hydropower plant has been reduced for the rest of 2016 due to water shortages in the region. Each of the plant's 415MW units will operate at a reduced capacity of 365MW. As a result, we have lowered our hydropower forecasts somewhat and expect total generation for 2016 to be just under 18.98 terawatt hours (TWh) as opposed to the previously forecast 20TWh.
Mitsubishi Corporation has signed a contract with Electricidade de Mos'ambique (EDM) for the construction of a substation and connecting lines in the Nampula province. The project is aimed at strengthening the supply of stable electricity to the province. Project financing will come from the Japanese government through the Japanese International Cooperation Agency.
The Mozambique Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Mozambique Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Mozambique to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Mozambique's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Mozambique.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).