Namibia Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Namibia Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Namibia's economy will face dual headwinds of low global demand and prices for its key commodities exports. This will have knock on implications for investment in the mining sector. We forecast a minimal uptick in growth from 3.9% in 2015 to 4.1% in 2016 and again to 4.4% in 2017.

  • The landslide victory for president-elect Hage Geingob and the ruling SWAPO in Namibia's general elections on November 28 2014 augurs for broad political stability and a pro-business economic agenda. The result means that SWAPO will expand on its two thirds majority in the national assembly. Hopes for a shift towards a more inclusive electoral landscape continue to prove elusive.

  • Namibia's fiscal position will remain in the red until FY2020/21 owing to lower demand for the countries commodities - the mining sector accounts for around 60% of export value - which will slash tax income. We see little scope for a near-term pull back in spending given the government's medium term inclusive growth plans and therefore forecast a deeper fiscal deficit in FY2016/17 of 6.2% from a deficit of 4.9% in FY2015/16.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 and 2016, from 5.3% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2016 to 3.9% and 4.1% in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Key Risks:

  • Namibia's small, open economy is highly exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts, if the situation abroad deteriorates (or conversely, improves) more than we anticipate, it would affect Namibia's overall growth.

  • Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture, and weather poses substantial risks, as illustrated by the ongoing drought which has threatened yields and food security. Changing weather conditions will affect growth, inflation and trade.

  • Namibia's statistics has been subject to multiple revisions and this weighs on overall data for the country.

Macroeconomic Forecasts
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 6.4 3.9 4.1 4.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 13.0 11.8 10.3 10.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.7 3.7 5.0 6.0
Exchange rate NAD/USD, eop 11.55 15.48 16.50 17.50
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.2 -5.0 -6.2 -5.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -8.6 -10.4 -13.1 -12.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Fixed Investment To Outperform Private Consumption
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
8
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
9
Fiscal And Public Debt Outlook
10
Ministry Of Finance Improves Fiscal Transparency
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
External Trade And Investment Outlook
12
Namibia's Rising Debt Will Increase Debt-Servicing Costs
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
Outlook On External Position
13
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
14
Monetary Policy
15
Interest Rate Increases Expected In 2016
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy Framework
16
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Namibian Economy To 2025
19
Resource-Powered Growth
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
President Geingob To Focus On Poverty Eradication
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
23
Stability Likely To Prevail Over The Coming Decade
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Trade Procedures And Governance
29
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES - DOCUMENTS REQUIRED
29
TABLE: DURATION AND COST OF TRADE PROCEDURES
29
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
30
Vulnerability To Crime
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Unfinished Business In 2016
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: NAMIBIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

The Namibia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Namibia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Namibia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Namibia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Namibia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business inThe Namibia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Namibia Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Namibian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Namibia through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Namibia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Namibia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Namibia, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Namibia over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Namibia country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the The Namibian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Namibia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Namibia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Namibia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Namibia, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Namibia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.