Namibia Country Risk Report

Published 22 July 2015 | Quarterly

  • 46 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,195.00
Namibia Country Risk Report

Core Views:

  • The Namibian economy will post solid growth of 6.4% annually over the next five years. Growth will be driven in the main by capital-intensive investment projects in the mining and infrastructure space, while key exports such uranium will benefit from robust Chinese demand

  • The landslide victory for president-elect Hage Geingob and the ruling SWAPO in Namibia's general elections on November 28 2014 augurs for broad political stability and a pro-business economic agenda. The result means that SWAPO will expand on its two thirds majority in the national assembly. Hopes for a shift towards a more inclusive electoral landscape continue to prove elusive.

  • Namibia's current account deficit will widen to around 9.9% of GDP in 2015 from an estimated 10.3% in 2014, before narrowing to 8.6% of GDP in 2016.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised up our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 and 2016, from %.0% each year to 5.3% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2016.

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • Namibia's small, open economy is highly exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts, if the situation abroad deteriorates (or, conversely, improves) more than we anticipate, we would have to adjust our forecasts accordingly.

  • Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture, and weather poses substantial risks, as illustrated by the ongoing drought which has threatened yields and food security. Changing weather conditions pose both upside and downside risks to a number of our forecasts, including for growth, inflation, and trade.

Forecast Table:

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Namibia 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f
e/f = BMI estimate/ forecast Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 5.1 4.5 5.3 5.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 12.9 13.4 15.5 17.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 7.2 4.7 4.8 5.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Housing Crisis Heightens Short-Term Risks
8
Tab le: Politica l Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Stability Likely To Prevail Over The Coming Decade
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Investment In Uranium To Drive Growth
14
TABLE : Economic Activit y
14
Fiscal Policy
15
SACU Declines To Delay Fiscal Consolidation
15
TABLE : Fisca l Polic y
16
Monetary Policy
17
Rate Hikes To Contain Credit Bubble
17
TABLE : Mon eta ry Polic y
18
Balance Of Payments
18
Import Demand To Keep Trade Balance In Red
18
TABLE : Current Account
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Namibian Economy To 2024
21
Resource-Powered Growth
21
TABLE ; Long -Term Mac roeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE : Operational Risk
24
Market Size And Utilities
25
TABLE : SSA - Market Size And Utilities Infrastructu re
26
International Security
29
TABLE : Sub -Saharan Africa - Interstate Security Ris k
30
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
33
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
33
TABLE : Pharmaceutical Sales
34
TABLE: Healthcare Expenditure Trends
35
tABLE : Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends
35
TABLE : Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends
35
Other Key Sectors
37
TABLE : Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
37
TABLE : Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
37
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Outlook
39
Event Risk Mounting But Manageable
39
Table: Global Assumptions
39
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH , %
40
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
Table: Emerging Ma rkets , Real GDP Growth, %
41

The Namibia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Namibia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Namibia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Namibia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Namibia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business inThe Namibia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Namibia Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Namibian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Namibia through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Namibia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Namibia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Namibia, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Namibia over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Namibia country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the The Namibian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Namibia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Namibia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Namibia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Namibia, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Namibia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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