BMI View: Growth in Namibia's construction sector will slow after 2016 as the country struggles to attract private investment and battles macroeconomic headwinds in the wake of persistent low commodity prices. The expansion in the short term will be driven by port infrastructure upgrades and the harnessing of renewable energy. Other major projects, mainly in thermal energy and rail infrastructure, remain stalled owing to a lack of funding.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast growth to slow after recording 10.7% real growth in 2016, averaging 5.9 over our 10-year forecast period.
While the budget balance is expected to remain the red until 2020, the government will continue to prioritise infrastructure development under its Medium Term Expenditure Framework. It is eager to establish a framework for public-private partnerships to attract private investment into infrastructure.
Delays in the construction of thermal power plants will weigh on growth throughout our forecast period.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BoN, BMI|
|Construction industry value, NADbn||7.82||8.94||10.22||11.38||12.65|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||10.70||8.52||8.25||5.32||4.82|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||4.7||4.8||4.9||4.9||4.9|
Namibia's overall score has improved to 52.6 in our Sub-Saharan Africa RRI, above the regional average of 43. It remains the leader in the 16 markets covered.
The government is eager to improve its overall investment climate to attract private financing into infrastructure.
High levels of red tape and an underdeveloped financial restrict businesses' ability to raise credit.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Namibia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Namibia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Namibian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Namibia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Namibian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Namibian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Namibia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.