BMI View: Namibia's insurance market will be affected by depreciation and squeezed household income. While premiums are set to grow in local currency, over the short term the market will contract in US dollars before it shows a slow recovery over the remainder of the forecast period to 2020. On the upside, market penetration will remain strong and personal accident insurance will lead growth, albeit at the expense of life insurance. The market is characterised by a broad range of products on offer and strong distribution channels that are well suited to the local market , which is characterised by low- income households and a small, widely distributed population.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, NAMFISA|
|Gross life premiums written, NADbn||6.39||7.43||7.79||8.40||9.01||9.61||10.21||10.82|
|Gross life premiums written, NAD, % y-o-y||10.0||16.4||4.8||7.9||7.2||6.7||6.3||5.9|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||0.66||0.69||0.61||0.54||0.55||0.57||0.59||0.62|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-6.5||3.5||-11.0||-12.0||3.1||2.7||4.4||4.1|
|Gross non-life premiums written, NADbn||2.79||3.34||3.66||4.03||4.47||4.99||5.51||6.15|
|Gross non-life premiums written, NAD, % y-o-y||14.1||19.7||9.7||10.0||11.0||11.6||10.6||11.6|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||0.29||0.31||0.29||0.26||0.27||0.30||0.32||0.35|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-3.0||6.5||-6.8||-10.3||6.7||7.4||8.6||9.6|
Latest Updates and Developments:
We have left our forecasts for the life insurance sector unchanged in local currency terms with 7.9% growth expected in 2016, but a weaker depreciation of the Namibian dollar has prompted us to revise the decline in premiums in US dollars from 13.9% to 12.0%.
We have updated our forecasts to reflect ongoing currency movements and changes in forecasts. In local currency terms, we maintain our growth forecast at 10%, but in US dollar terms the market will contract by 10.3%, revised from 12.3%.
Within the non-life sector, we have made upwards revisions to our motor insurance forecast due to stronger growth in car ownership, leading to 10% growth in local currency terms in 2016 and an average of 8.6% over 2017-2020. Personal accident insurance will continue to outpace the rest of the non-life sector, increasing its share of the market to overtake motor insurance as the main non-life line.
The Namibia Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Namibia Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Namibian insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Namibia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Namibia's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Namibia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.