Netherlands Country Risk Report

Published 23 June 2015 | Quarterly

  • 38 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Netherlands Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • The Netherlands' economic growth will be supported by nascent recoveries in the domestic housing and labour markets. However, crushingly high levels of household indebtedness will prevent households harnessing growing eurozone growth momentum as much as other countries in the bloc.

  • The coalition government's ability to push through a front-loaded austerity programme and a raft of labour market reforms will contribute to the Netherlands' fiscal accounts remaining among the healthiest in the eurozone.

Major Forecast Changes

  • Supply side disinflationary pressures will boost household purchasing power. To that end, we have notched up our headline growth forecasts by 0.2 percentage points for both 2015 and 2016 to 1.6% and 1.8% respectively.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • The knock-on effects of gathering eurozone growth momentum could feed through into the Dutch economy more than we currently anticipate, causing growth to surprise to the upside. Nevertheless, we caution that the eurozone's rising tide will struggle to lift the Dutch economy to the same extent as other countries due to the crippling levels of household debt.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Netherlands 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 848.6 875.7 732.5 731.7
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -0.7 0.8 1.6 1.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.7 -0.1 0.7 1.1
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.72 0.83 0.98 0.91
Current account balance, % of GDP 11.0 10.3 10.0 9.4

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Senate Shake-Up To Cause Legislative Deadlock
8
TABLE: Political Overview
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Index
11
Economic Activity
12
Household Deleveraging To Smother Recovery
12
TABLE: GDP Contribution To Growth
12
Regional Economic Activity
14
Signs Of Life In Eurozone Economy
14
Regional Monetary Policy
17
ECB QE: Whatever It Takes, For However Long It Takes
17
Exchange Rate Forecast
19
EUR: Parity Is In Sight
19
TABLE: Currency Forecasts
19
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
21
Operational Risk Index
21
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
23
Automotives
23
TABLE: Aut os Total Mar ket - Hist orical Data And Forecasts
23
TABLE: Passenger Car Mar ket - Hist orical Data And Forecasts
24
TABLE: Commercial Vehicle Mar ket - Hist orical Data And Forecasts
24
TABLE: Motorc ycle Mar ket - Hist orical Data And Forecasts
25
Food & Drink
26
TABLE: Food Consumpti on Indicat ors - Hist orical Data & Forecasts
27
Other Key Sectors
31
Table : Oil and Gas Sector Ke y Indicat ors
31
Table : Pharma Sector Ke y Indicat ors
31
Table : Telec oms Sector Ke y Indicat ors
32
Table : Infrastructure Sector Ke y Indicat ors
32
Table : Freight Ke y Indicat ors
32
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
33
Global Outlook
33
Deflationary Pressure
33
Table : Global Assumpti ons
33
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
34
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
Table : Emerging Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %
35

The Netherlands Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Netherlands. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Netherlands's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Netherlands's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Netherlands's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Netherlands, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Netherlands Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Netherlands' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Netherlands through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Netherlands Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Netherlands and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Netherlands, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Netherlands over the next 5-years?

BMI's Netherlands country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Netherlands Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Netherlands.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Netherlands's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Netherlands’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Netherlands's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Netherlands?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Netherlands against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Netherlands will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Netherlands's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express