Netherlands Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Netherlands Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Continued high support for the Nationalist party of Geert Wilders poses a threat to the established political parties in the upcoming elections. The result of the EU referendum vote in the United Kingdom will strengthen calls for a similar vote on the Netherlands which may be a point of contention in the formation of any coalition involving the PVV, which is likely to be among the top two largest parties.

  • The Netherlands economic growth is likely to slow as exports suffer from the impact of Brexit owing to the highly externally-oriented nature of the economy. This export reliance leaves the economy at risk from the potential for further shocks to EU integration. We have downgraded the Netherlands' real GDP growth forecasts for both 2016 and 2017 to 1.7% and 1.8% respectively, from 2.0% and 2.0%

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have downgrade the Netherlands' 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.0% and also downgraded 2017 growth to 1.8% from 2.0%. Despite the recent acceleration in growth, Brexit poses a significant risk to the Netherlands' exports, and will also raise uncertainty over the future of the EU.

Key Risks

  • The major risk facing the economy comes from the continued popularity of the PVV, whose rise in the polls suggests they could form part of the next government following the upcoming elections. This would raise the potential for a referendum on EU membership, and could ultimately result in the country leaving the EU and the currency bloc. This would have deeply negative implications for exports.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Netherlands 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.8
Nominal GDP, USDbn 879.3 752.6 739.9 747.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.82 0.92 0.95 0.96
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 -1.5
Current account balance, % of GDP 10.2 9.8 9.3 8.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Modest Growth Outlook As Brexit Risks Loom
8
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Political Risk Index
11
Domestic Politics
12
PVV Unlikely To Form Government, But Political Divisions To Deepen
12
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
15
SWOT Analysis
15
Operational Risk Index
15
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
17
Global Macro Outlook
17
Summer Of Risk
17
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
17
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
18
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
19
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
21

Assess your risk exposure in Netherlands with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Netherlands with confidence.

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