Real GDP growth in the Netherlands in 2016 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, bolstered by a fiscal stimulus package, and a sustained recovery in the housing market. Net exports will make only a modest contribution to growth due to stagnating external demand from the eurozone and lower gas export volumes.
The Netherlands is likely hold an early parliamentary election in 2016, as the ruling centre-right VVD seeks to gain new coalition partners, which would help it regain its lost majority in the upper house. The rising popularity of ultra-nationalist PVV will serve to draw other centrist parties together, and boost their willingness to cooperate in forming a coalition government, while isolating the PVV from power.
Softening of eurozone demand poses downside risk to our forecast for real GDP growth to accelerate in the Netherlands in 2016.
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||1.0||1.9||2.0||1.9|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||875.7||733.2||732.5||776.5|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||-0.1||0.5||1.0||1.4|
|Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop||0.83||0.95||0.91||0.87|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-2.2||-2.0||-1.9||-1.5|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||10.3||10.0||9.4||8.9|
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