Netherlands Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Netherlands Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The Netherlands boasts a relatively sanguine near-term economic growth outlook as a result of solid domestic demand conditions. Household disposable incomes are set to rise over the coming quarters following the passage of fiscal stimulus measures by the government in 2015, and this should keep the ongoing recovery in the residential real estate market on track. However, net exports will act as a slight net drag on growth as middling external demand conditions continue to weigh.

  • The Netherlands is likely hold an early parliamentary election in 2016, as the ruling centre-right VVD seeks to gain new coalition partners despite a significant decline in its popularity. The rise of the nationalist PVV will likely serve to draw other centrist parties together, and boost their willingness to cooperate in forming a coalition government, while isolating the PVV from power. Nevertheless, the PVV is likely to achieve a significant boost in seats in the new parliament.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have downgrade the Netherlands' 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 2.0%, from 2.5% previously, following a poorer than expected performance in Q116.

Key Risks

  • The Netherlands' trade outlook would face significant ramifications if the UK were to vote 'yes' on Brexit. Such a scenario could also significantly bolster eurosceptic sentiment both within the Netherlands and in neighbouring EU states. In any case, the country will remain highly vulnerable to the long-term structural woes of the eurozone economy, suggesting significant currency and trade-related risks.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Netherlands 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 879.3 752.6 742.0 785.6
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.82 0.92 0.91 0.87
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 -1.5
Current account balance, % of GDP 10.2 9.8 9.3 8.8
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Modest Growth Outlook As Brexit Risks Loom
8
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Political Risk Index
11
Domestic Politics
12
PVV Unlikely To Form Government, But Political Divisions To Deepen
12
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
15
SWOT Analysis
15
Operational Risk Index
15
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
17
Global Macro Outlook
17
Summer Of Risk
17
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
17
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
18
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
19
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
21

Assess your risk exposure in Netherlands with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Netherlands with confidence.

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