Netherlands Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Netherlands Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Real GDP growth in the Netherlands in 2016 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, bolstered by a fiscal stimulus package, and a sustained recovery in the housing market. Net exports will make only a modest contribution to growth due to stagnating external demand from the eurozone and lower gas export volumes.

  • The Netherlands is likely hold an early parliamentary election in 2016, as the ruling centre-right VVD seeks to gain new coalition partners, which would help it regain its lost majority in the upper house. The rising popularity of ultra-nationalist PVV will serve to draw other centrist parties together, and boost their willingness to cooperate in forming a coalition government, while isolating the PVV from power.

Key Risks

  • Softening of eurozone demand poses downside risk to our forecast for real GDP growth to accelerate in the Netherlands in 2016.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Netherlands 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 875.7 733.2 732.5 776.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.83 0.95 0.91 0.87
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 -1.5
Current account balance, % of GDP 10.3 10.0 9.4 8.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Supported By Fiscal Stimulus, Rising House Prices
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Political Risk Index
13
Domestic Politics
14
Popularity Of Ultra-Nationalist PVV To Draw Centrist Parties Closer
14
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
14
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
17
SWOT Analysis
17
Operational Risk Index
17
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
19
Global Macro Outlook
19
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
19
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
19
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
20
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
20
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
21
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
23

Assess your risk exposure in Netherlands with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Netherlands with confidence.

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