Dutch petrochemicals production is set for strong growth in 2016 following a disappointing 2015 when chemicals output fell 5.4% due in part to the shut-down of the Moerdijk cracker and associated butadiene production. The unit's resumption of activities should see it raise output to full operational capacity in 2016.
Although there are considerable downside risks over the short term, Dutch petrochemicals still offer some distinct competitive advantages over the medium-to-long term. Dutch petrochemicals production has several distinct advantages that should help it maintain its regional position: high level of integration, economies of scale and diversity of the product slate.
The government's commitment to enhancing the business environment is reflected in its flexibility in modes of taxation on particular business operations. Financial incentives are also provided to promote research and development (R&D) activities, regional development and for environmental protection. As such, Dutch petrochemicals have significant competitive advantages over European countries, such as France and Italy, where capacity has been cut significantly.
The upside to the Dutch petrochemicals industry is Indorama's increase in purified terephthalic acid (PTA) by 250,000tpa to 600,000tpa at its Rotterdam plant, providing feedstock to its European polyethylene terephthale (PET) operations. The expansion was due to be finished by end-2015 and should contribute to strong petrochemicals growth in 2016
Naphtha feedstock prices are forecast to remain stable in 2016, which will support margins in the short-term. Due to its high level of integration, the Dutch petrochemicals industry is in a strong enough position to withstand any downward pressure on prices posed by global over-supply as a result of a Chinese market slump and surging US ethane-based petrochemicals capacity.
With 73.2 points, the Netherlands is in joint second place with the UK in BMI's Risk/Reward Index for the European petrochemicals industry, down 0.4 points since last year due to a decline in its country risk score. It is 1.0 point ahead of Belgium and 8.3 points behind Germany. The Netherlands scores close to the Western European average in petrochemicals-related scores and its risk scores are still above the regional average, marking it out as a prime investment destination.
The Netherlands Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Netherlands Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Dutch petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Dutch petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Dutch petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Netherlands.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
- Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global & Regional Market Overview
Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.
Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:
Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene
Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.
The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.