BMI View: We expect the Netherlands ' pharmaceutical sector to return to growth in 2017, following an annual contraction of the market value since 2012. An ageing population and high per capita spending will drive medicine sales, ensuring the demand for prescription medicines remains high. However, despite an improvement in economic conditions, the rising cost of healthcare will put considerable pressure on the government to implement further cost- efficiencies.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR5.95bn (USD6.63bn) in 2015 to EUR5.97bn (USD6.39bn) in 2016; -0.1% in local currency terms and -3.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR72.78bn (USD80.72bn) in 2015 to EUR73.72bn (USD78.89bn) in 2016; +1.3% in local currency terms and -2.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.970||6.630||6.390||6.300||6.180||6.160||6.290|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.91||0.88||0.86||0.84||0.82||0.81||0.80|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||8.3||8.2||8.1||8.0||7.9||7.9||7.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||95.820||80.720||78.890||78.700||78.080||78.450||80.580|
The Netherlands continues to rank in the lower half of BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for the 15 key Western European markets, ranking 11th in our index for Q416. At 70.6, the country's overall RRI score remains unchanged from last quarter and is in line with the regional average. The country offers drugmakers a relatively low-risk operating environment among a high pensionable population (a score of 8.0 out of 8). However poor market prospects (Sector Value Growth score of 4.8 out of 12) - due to pressures on pricing and reimbursement and the market's maturity - will continue to weigh on the country's overall standing.
In August 2016, the Minister of Public Health and Dutch centre for stem cell donors, Matchis, launched a campaign to recruit new stem cell donors, addressing the Netherlands' current shortage for the treatment of leukaemia and other blood cancers.
Data published in the European Heart Journal in August 2016, revealed that Cardio Vascular Disease in 12 European countries (including the Netherlands) now accounts for far fewer deaths than cancer in men, owing to improvements in prevention and treatments.
In July 2016, Zambon and its partner Newron Pharmaceuticals launched Xadago (safinamide) in the Netherlands for the treatment of mid- to late-stage Parkinson's disease.
In June 2016, the Dutch minister of health proposed a change in the current abortion legislation, by limiting the period of time in which doctors can carry out the medical procedure.
Mylan achieved total revenues in Q216, ended June 30, worth USD2,560.7mn, up by 8.0% over the USD2,371.7mn reported a year earlier, and up by 16.9% over the USD2,191.3mn reported for Q116.
BMI Economic View
The UK vote to leave the EU on June 23 will act as a significant drag on regional growth in the coming year. However, in terms of systemic risks to the global economy, a deeper crisis would be much more likely to emerge from the eurozone as opposed to the UK, via political contagion or banking sector instability.
BMI Political View
The Dutch rejection in the March 6 referendum of an Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine highlights rising eurosceptic sentiment in a country historically very supportive of European integration. The result will damage the waning popularity of the incumbent VVD-PvdA government ahead of elections in 2017, while also acting as a boost for eurosceptic groups domestically and across the EU.
The Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Netherlands, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Netherlands.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.