BMI View: The value of the Dutch pharmaceutical market will see yet another year of contraction in 2016, although we expect a return to growth - albeit marginal - in the following years. A relatively low risk environment and a well establish healthcare sector, thanks to high government expenditure, coupled with an aging population will aid in the recovery of the market. However, the country's ever-growing healthcare bills will increase the likelihood of the government implementing further cost-containment measures.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR5.80bn (USD6.38bn) in 2015 to EUR5.80bn (USD6.20bn) in 2016; -0.1% in local currency terms and -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR74.29bn (USD81.72bn) in 2015 to EUR75.48bn (USD80.77bn) in 2016; +1.6% in local currency terms and -1.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.933||6.382||6.201||6.427||6.820||7.257||7.423|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.91||0.87||0.85||0.83||0.81||0.80||0.80|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||8.1||7.8||7.7||7.6||7.5||7.4||7.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||98.192||81.724||80.768||84.947||91.034||97.477||100.150|
The Netherlands continues to rank in the lower half of BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for the 15 key Western European markets, ranking 11th in our index for Q216. At 70.2, The Netherlands' overall RRI score significantly improves from last quarter (66.8) and is now in line with the regional average. The country offers drugmakers a relatively low-risk operating environment among a high pensionable population. However poor market prospects - due to pressures on pricing and reimbursement and the market's maturity - will continue to weigh on the country's overall standing.
In February 2016, AstraZeneca acquired a 55% equity stake in Netherlands-based Acerta Pharma for an agreed total of USD4bn, providing the company with a potential best-in-class irreversible oral BTK inhibitor, acalabrutinib (ACP-196), currently in development for B-cell blood cancers and multiple solid tumours.
In December 2015, a study by the Antoni van Leeuwenhoek institute for cancer research and treatment found that the prices of new medicines to fight various types of cancer are higher in the Netherlands than in many other European nations.
According to the pharmacists association KNMP, medicine shortages in the Netherlands have quadrupled in the past five years with 625 drugs in 2015 being temporarily unavailable for a period of up to nine months.
BMI Economic View
While the recovery in the Dutch economy remains on track, we highlight key risks stemming from the vulnerabilities of its mortgage market. For now, however, our core scenario remains that these risks will be contained due to the strengthened banking system and the strong fiscal position of the sovereign.
BMI Political View
The Netherlands will most likely hold general elections in H216. The rise in the popularity of far-right political parties, as well as uncertainty over potential coalition partners are the main factors behind the delay in the early ballot.
The Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Netherlands, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Netherlands.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.