BMI View: The Netherlands has a well establish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector . In 2016, the pharmaceutical market will face yet another year of contraction in value terms before returning to growth in 2017. Medicine sales will be driven by an ageing population and high per capita spending, ensuring the demand for prescription medicines remain s high. However, despite an improvement in economic conditions, the rising cost of healthcare will put considerable pressure on the government to implement further cost-efficiencies.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR5.82bn (USD6.45bn) in 2015 to EUR5.80bn (USD6.20bn) in 2016; -0.4% in local currency terms and -3.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR72.78bn (USD80.72bn) in 2015 to EUR73.72bn (USD78.89bn) in 2016; +1.3% in local currency terms and -2.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||7.850||6.450||6.200||6.430||6.820||7.260||7.430|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.89||0.86||0.83||0.81||0.80||0.79||0.78|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||8.2||8.0||7.9||7.8||7.8||7.7||7.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||95.820||80.720||78.890||82.470||88.080||94.190||96.700|
The Netherlands continues to rank in the lower half of BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for the 15 key Western European markets, ranking 11th in our index for Q316. At 70.6, the country's overall RRI score marginally improves from last quarter (70.2) and is in line with the regional average. The country offers drugmakers a relatively low-risk operating environment among a high pensionable population (a score of 8.0 out of 8). However poor market prospects (Sector Value Growth score of 4.8 out of 12) - due to pressures on pricing and reimbursement and the market's maturity - will continue to weigh on the country's overall standing.
In May 2016, Netherlands-based Mylan announced its plans to acquire a dermatology drug business from Illinois pharmaceutical company Renaissance Acquisition Holdings for up to USD1bn by September this year.
According to the Dutch Euthanasia Commission, the number of Dutch citizens who end their lives by euthanasia rose by 75% in the past five years from 3,136 in 2010 to 5,516 in 2015 with experts particularly concerned by a sharp rise in cases for psychiatric reasons.
In May 2016, new figures released by the National Statics Office calculated that healthcare in the Netherlands reached a value of EUR5,228 (USD5,855) per person in 2015.
In April 2016, the NRC found that Dutch health insurance companies are making losses on basic policies due to low charging of premiums, with the four market leaders spending a combined EUR1.8bn (USD2.0bn) or 5.0% of their turnover on subsidising cheap policies in 2015.
BMI Economic View
Real GDP growth in the Netherlands in 2016 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, bolstered by a fiscal stimulus package, and a sustained recovery in the housing market. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2016, marking a modest acceleration from the growth outturn of 1.9% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The Dutch rejection of the March 6 referendum of an Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine highlights rising eurosceptic sentiment in a country historically very supportive of European integration. The result will damage the waning popularity of the incumbent VVD-PvdA government ahead of elections in 2017, while also acting as a boost for eurosceptic groups domestically and across the EU.
The Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Netherlands, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Netherlands.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.