BMI View: The Netherlands has a well-developed healthcare system due to generous public expenditure over the years. Despite newly introduced cost - cutting measure s , government spending on healthcare will continue to increase in local currency terms, especially as the wider eurozone recovers. However, the country ' s aging population will put pressure on government finances over the longer-term, inevitably leading to further price caps on medicines.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR5.92bn (USD7.93bn) in 2014 to EUR5.80bn (USD6.38bn) in 2015; -2.0% in local currency terms and -19.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR73.28bn (USD98.19bn) in 2014 to EUR74.29bn (USD81.72bn) in 2015; +1.4% in local currency terms and -16.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||8.038||7.933||6.382||6.199||6.423||6.819||7.256|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.95||0.91||0.87||0.85||0.83||0.81||0.80|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||8.4||8.1||7.8||7.7||7.6||7.5||7.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||95.119||98.192||81.724||80.768||84.947||91.034||97.477|
R isk/Reward Index
The Netherlands continues to rank in the lower half of BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for the 15 key Western European markets, ranking 11th in our index for Q116. At 64.7, its overall RRI score remains unchanged from last quarter and is still slightly below the regional average of 66.8. While the country offers drugmakers a relatively low-risk operating environment, poor market prospects - due to pressures on pricing and reimbursement and the market's maturity - will continue to weigh down the country's overall standing.
Key Trends And Developments
In October 2015, the Royal Dutch Pharmacists Association and the Dutch Hospital Pharmacists Association revealed a plan to study and implement pharmacogenomics in primary care. Experts suggest Dutch pharmacists could offer testing, therapeutic support and advice in as little as five years.
In October 2015, US-based Aduro Biotech agreed to buy Netherlands-based BioNovion in a bid to further strengthen and expand its immunotherapy capabilities and potential offerings to patients.
In September 2015, US-based biotechnology company Amgen agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Dezima for up to USD1.55bn from Forbion and other current shareholders, subject to obtaining US Federal Trade Commission clearance.
BMI Economic View
We have revised up our forecast for real GDP growth in the Netherlands as H115 readings for private consumption and exports have been stronger than we initially anticipated. However, the reduction of gas production at the Groningen field will partially offset the positive impact of stronger external demand from the eurozone.
BMI Political View
With the passage of legislation becoming increasingly obstructed by the Dutch government's loss of a majority in the Senate, the government is unlikely to serve its full term and we expect snap elections by year-end. The ruling VVD party is still likely to remain at the helm of the Dutch government, but supported by a more stable centrist coalition.
The Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Netherlands Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Netherlands, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Dutch pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Netherlands.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.