BMI View: The increased SDE+ budget for 2016 and the effect of the new offshore bill are increasing hopes for the coming years. While expected non-hydroelectric renewables growth trajectories remain insufficient to reach the Netherlands' 2020 targets, government policies have triggered new interest in the market, also visible in Shell's attitude U -turn towards wind. For 2016, we expect growth rates of 5.8% and 9.4% for non-hydro generation and capacity respectively, with further improved growth levels forecast for 2017.
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.990||14.810||16.300||16.790||18.640||19.330||19.970|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||3.510||5.840||10.020||3.060||10.990||3.670||3.320|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||5,579.9||6,106.2||6,884.5||7,235.1||7,967.2||8,469.4||9,038.2|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||5.4||9.4||12.8||5.1||10.1||6.3||6.7|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
Average growth rates in our 10-year forecast therefore range from almost 7.1% for non-hydro renewable capacity to almost 5.2% for non-hydro electricity generation.
The first SDE+ round in March/April 2016 received 3,354 applications valued at EUR8.15bn, more than double the funding amount of EUR4bn for this round leading to an increased budget for the second round from EUR4bn to EUR5bn. The total SDE+ budget for 2016, therefore stands at EUR9bn.
Danish Dong Energy won the first round for the Borssele I and II (each 350MW) offshore projects with a record low bid. The tender received 33 applications from companies including Shell, RWE and Nuon Energy. The second tender for Borssele III and IV is running from September 16-29.
Electricity generation through coal and pressure to decrease emissions by 25% on the 1990 level by 2020 have led the Dutch parliament to vote in favour of phasing out coal. The government is to present a strategy by October 2016.
The Netherlands Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Netherlands. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Netherlands, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Netherlands, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Netherlands Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Netherlands to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Netherlands renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Netherlands, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.