BMI View: While growth in non-hydropower renewable generation and capacity is expected to see only a slight uptick in 2016 over 2015, our outlook for the Dutch renewable s market in the medium term continues to improve. In particular, wind power is likely to see increased development in line with the new offshore wind power bill, unless further delays undermine its timely implementation. At the same time, biomass has fallen victim to plans for a c omplete phasing -out of coal , which put all co-fired power plant plans under scrutiny. As we await the results of the first 2016 SDE+ tender, the increase in the budget to EUR8bn is expected to lead to a variety of new development opportunities. Whether these measures are implemented in time for the Netherlands to meet its 2020 and 2023 targets remains to be seen.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, national sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.994||14.720||16.097||16.585||17.042||17.559|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||3.512||5.183||9.357||3.034||2.752||3.037|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||5,579.9||6,061.2||6,786.4||7,088.3||7,379.3||7,702.2|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||5.4||8.6||12.0||4.4||4.1||4.4|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
Overall growth in non-hydropower renewables generation and capacity is expected to reach 5.2% and 8.6% respectively in 2016.
According to a recent Eurostat report, the Netherlands is significantly behind on the path to its 14% renewable energy by 2020 target. While the country's National Renewable Energy Action Plan expected renewable energy levels to stand at 7.7% in 2014, they only reached 5.5%.
The Dutch government previously increased funding for the SDE+ programme from EUR3.5bn in 2015 to EUR8bn in 2016. The funds will be made available in two rounds, each worth EUR4bn.
The New Offshore Wind Energy Bill's first tender for 700MW for Borssele I and II has been delayed until at least May 2016. Overall, about 3.5GW of offshore wind power projects will be funded through the programme over the next five years.
Residential solar panels experienced a significant sales increase in 2015 due to the 2014 smart-meter roll-out and continuous governmental support. Overall, about 2mn panels were sold in 2015.
Electricity generation through coal and pressure to decrease emissions by 25% on the 1990 level by 2020 have led the Dutch parliament to vote in favour of phasing out coal. The government is to present a strategy by October 2016.
The plan to phase-out coal has led to the exclusion of power plants co-fired with biomass from the first SDE+ round. They will only be allowed to apply to the second tender in September.
The Netherlands Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Netherlands. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Netherlands, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Netherlands, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Netherlands Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Netherlands to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Netherlands renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Netherlands, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.