BMI View: The Dutch non-hydropower renewables market is seen to be reinvigorated by t he increased SDE+ budget for 2016 and the new offshore bill . Although we expect strong growth levels for 2017, of over 10% in non-hydropower renewables generation and about 12.75% in capacity, forecast growth trajectories remain insufficient to reach the Netherlands ' 2020 targets. Nevertheless, government policies have triggered new interest in the market and sharply falling offshore wind costs are expected to boost the growth potential further, posing a significant upside risk to our outlook.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.990||14.810||16.300||16.790||18.640||19.330||19.970|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||3.510||5.840||10.020||3.060||10.990||3.670||3.320|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||5,579.9||6,106.2||6,884.5||7,235.1||7,967.2||8,469.4||9,038.2|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||5.4||9.4||12.8||5.1||10.1||6.3||6.7|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Average growth rates in our 10-year forecast therefore range from almost 7.1% for non-hydro renewable capacity to almost 5.2% for non-hydro electricity generation.
We forecast non-hydro renewables to reach a 17.4% share in total electricity generation in 2020. Considering the Dutch hydropower sector is small (at an installed capacity of 37MW or about 3.5% of total electricity generation in 2020), this number is far off the aimed for 37% of renewable electricity that constitutes the basis for the country reaching its 14% 2020 target for renewables in final energy.
A recalculation of Dutch emission levels in October 2016 could relieve some pressure from reaching Dutch emission targets and may also affect the country's plans to phase out coal, as 1990 levels are now considered to have been higher, and consumption levels for 2020 expected to be lower.
Danish Dong Energy won the first round for the Borssele I and II (each 350MW) offshore projects with a record low bid. The tender received 33 applications from companies including Shell, RWE and Nuon Energy. The second tender for Borssele III and IV received 26 bids in September.
The Netherlands Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Netherlands. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Netherlands, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Netherlands, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Netherlands Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Netherlands to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Netherlands renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Netherlands, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.