New Zealand Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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New Zealand Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium -to- long term. This will be supportive for both the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity . However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to low prices on the international market. We believe prices will pick up again later in 2016.

Key Trends

  • Milk production growth to 2019/20: 9% to 23.5mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.

  • Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 14% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.

  • 2016 real GDP growth: 2.3%, down from 2.4% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2016 and 2020.

Key Developments

We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see prices averaging lower this year, at USD15.00/cwt, compared with USD16.20/cwt previously. Prices will start to recover from 2017 onwards and average USD15.80/cwt that year. Higher grains prices in the coming years will undermine returns for dairy farmers and limit milk production growth in the US, while Chinese import demand will recover in late 2016.

Moreover, we expect Asia Pacific prices to pick up slightly in 2016, which should provide some support to US prices towards the end of 2016 and in 2017. However, the upside will be limited for CME prices, as US production growth will be weaker but positive, and the US dollar will remain elevated, curtailing export demand. We hold a more bearish view than that implied by the futures curve, as the October 2016 contract is currently priced at USD15.75/cwt.

Ticking Up In 2017
Third-Month Class III CME Milk, USD/cwt (weekly chart) & BMI Forecasts
Note: Horizontal lines represent BMI average annual forecast. Source: Bloomberg, BMI
BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Agribusiness
7
Industry Forecast
9
Dairy Outlook
9
Table: New Zealand - Liquid Milk Production & Consumption Outlook
9
Table: Milk & Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2012-2020)
11
Commodities Price Analysis
13
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
13
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
13
Upstream Analysis
15
Asia GM Outlook
15
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
18
Asia Machinery Outlook
20
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
23
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
25
Regional Overview
30
Table: Impact Of El Ni-o On Crops
30
Demographic Forecast
35
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025)
36
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025)
36
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025)
37
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025)
37
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025)
38
Methodology
40
Industry Forecast Methodology
40
Sector-Specific Methodology
41

The New Zealand Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's New Zealand Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.