New Zealand Agribusiness Report

Published 26 May 2015

  • 65 pages
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$1,295.00
New Zealand Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium to long term. This will be supportive for both the dairy and the livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity .

Key Trends

  • Milk production growth to 2018/19: 9.1 % to 23.7mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.

  • Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 13.0% to 1.6 mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 2.4%, down from 3.1% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2015 and 2019.

Key Developments

Dairy prices in Asia Pacific will remain subdued and lower on a year-on-year basis in the coming months, before picking up slightly as we move to the second half of 2015. Supply in the region will remain weak for a second consecutive season in 2015/16, while Chinese import demand should somewhat revive after halving over recent months. However, dairy prices are unlikely to return to the highs reached in 2013 and 2014.

Dairy prices in Asia Pacific, as measured by Fonterra's GlobalDairyTrade auction prices, have now bottomed after they tumbled by over 50% in 2014, pressurised by abundant supply and a drop in Chinese import demand. We believe dairy prices will remain curtailed and be lower on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in H115, before picking up slightly in absolute terms as we move to the second half of 2015. This echoes our...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Agribusiness
8
Operational Risk
10
Industry Forecast
12
Livestock Outlook
12
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
13
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
13
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
13
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
14
Dairy Outlook
15
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
16
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
16
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
16
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
17
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
21
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
21
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
21
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
22
Commodities Price Analysis
23
Commodity Strategy
23
Commodity Strategy
30
Table: Impact Of El Ni-o On Crops
30
Upstream Analysis
35
Asia GM Outlook
35
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
38
Asia Machinery Outlook
39
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
40
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
46
Regional Overview
52
Demographic Forecast
58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025)
59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025)
61
Methodology
63
New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sector-Specific Methodology
64

The New Zealand Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's New Zealand Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc