New Zealand Agribusiness Report

Published 24 February 2015

  • 70 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
New Zealand Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium to long term. This will be supportive for both the dairy and the livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity . However, the outlook for the sector is weak for 2014/15. We forecast milk production to grow by a weak 0.7 % year-on-year to 21. 9 mn tonnes, compared with the 4.0% growth recorded in 2013/14 and the five-year growth average of 4.3%.

Key Trends

  • Milk production growth to 2018/19: 8% to 23.7mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.

  • Milk powder production growth to 2017/18: 12% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 2.4%, down from 3.2% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2015 and 2019.

Key Developments

The outlook for dairy production in the ongoing 2014/15 season, ending in May, has worsened over recent months. Dairy farmers are facing a double spell this season, as low prices and payouts from cooperatives are concurring with drought conditions over some key producing regions, which will limit herd expansion and increase feed costs. We have revised down our production forecasts for the season for all dairy products. For milk, we now see output growing by a weak 0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 21.9mn tonnes, compared with our already conservative previous forecast of 1.8% y-o-y growth. Production of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Dairy Outlook
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
Regional Overview
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Agribusiness Firms In New Zealand
Demographic Forecast
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: New Zealand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: New Zealand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

The New Zealand Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's New Zealand Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.


The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc