BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium -to- long term. This will be supportive for both the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity . However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to low prices on the international market. We believe prices will pick up again in 2016.
Milk production growth to 2018/19: 8.0% to 23.5 mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.
Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 12.0% to 1.6 mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
2015 real GDP growth: 2.4%, down from 3.1% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2015 and 2019.
Dairy prices in Asia Pacific, as measured by Fonterra's GlobalDairyTrade auction prices, will remain weak over a six-month horizon, pressured by abundant supply and lacklustre global import demand for dairy products. However, we believe there is little further downside to prices. Indeed, Fonterra showed its willingness to provide some support to prices, as it intentionally reduced the volume of dairy products on offer at the last auction on August 19 2015 in order to prop up prices.
In the next few quarters, global supply will remain abundant. On the production side, New Zealand recorded robust 8.4% growth in milk production in 2014, and output grew further in H115 in spite of the...
The New Zealand Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's New Zealand Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.