New Zealand Country Risk Report

Published 23 June 2015 | Quarterly

  • 52 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
New Zealand Country Risk Report

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Key Taking Political Risk With Iraq Troop Decision
8
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Stability To Prevail, But Not Without Challenges
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Index
11
Economic Activity
12
Slowing Agriculture And Construction To Offset Oil Price Boost
12
Tabl e: Ec onomic Acti vit y
12
Fiscal Policy
14
Return To Surplus On Track
14
Tabl e: Fiscal Polic y
14
Balance Of Payments
15
External Accounts Still The Weak Link
15
Tabl e: Current Acc ount
15
Monetary Policy
17
Benign Deleveraging Continues
17
Tabl e: Moneta ry Polic y
17
Currency Forecast
18
NZD: Technicals And Fundamentals Suggest Weakness
18
Tabl e: CURRE NCY FORE CAST
18
Tabl e: Mac roeconomic Forecasts
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The New Zealand Economy To 2024
21
Deleveraging Will Weigh On Growth
21
Tabl e: Long -Term Mac roeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
tABLE: Developed States - Labour Market Risk
24
Table: Developed States - Logistics Risk
27
Table: Developed States - Crime And Security Risk
29
table: Developed States - Trade And Investment Risk
31
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Agribusiness
35
Table: Milk Producti on & Consumpti on
35
Table: Butt er Producti on & Consumpti on
36
Table: Cheese Producti on & Consumpti on
36
Table: Whole Milk Powd er Producti on & Consumpti on
36
Tourism
38
Table: Inb ound Tourism
39
Table: Outb ound Tourism
40
Other Key Sectors
43
Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Inf rast ructure Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Outlook
45
Deflationary Pressure
45
Table: Global Assumptions
45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
46
Tabl e: BMI VER SUS BLOO MBER G CONSENSUS RE AL GDP GRO WTH FORE CASTS, %
46
Tabl e: Em erging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
47

The New Zealand Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in New Zealand. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of New Zealand's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of New Zealand's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise New Zealand's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in New Zealand, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The New Zealand Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the New Zealand' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for New Zealand through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The New Zealand Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for New Zealand and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on New Zealand, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in New Zealand over the next 5-years?

BMI's New Zealand country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the New Zealand Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing New Zealand.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for New Zealand's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of New Zealand’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark New Zealand's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in New Zealand?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks New Zealand against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in New Zealand will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in New Zealand's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

*Not all Country Reports contain the Key Sector Outlook chapter. Please enquire above for more information.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express