BMI View: We retain our view that the New Zealand insurance market is comparatively small by global standards and a subdued domestic economic outlook weighs in on premium growth prospects , i n both the life and non-life sector through our forecast period out to 2020. The strengthening of the American dollar against the New Zealand dollar will also constrain dollar denominated premiums in both 2016 and 2017. We estimate that over the longer term, demand for key non-life lines , such as property and motor , will continue to remain high. However, we believe that demand for life productions, the smaller market at p resent, is expected to grow quicker , as awareness of the benefits of life products in conjunction with rising household incomes bolsters product offerings.
|Gross life premiums written, NZDbn||2.05||2.27||2.37||2.47||2.58||2.71||2.85||2.99|
|Gross life premiums written, NZD, % y-o-y||4.7||10.5||4.2||4.3||4.6||5.0||5.1||5.0|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||1.68||1.88||1.65||1.60||1.59||1.63||1.71||1.79|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||6.0||11.8||-12.3||-2.8||-1.0||2.4||5.1||5.0|
|Gross non-life premiums written, NZDbn||4.77||5.26||5.44||5.62||5.79||5.99||6.22||6.46|
|Gross non-life premiums written, NZD, % y-o-y||7.2||10.2||3.4||3.3||3.1||3.5||3.8||3.9|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||3.91||4.36||3.79||3.65||3.56||3.60||3.73||3.88|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||8.5||11.5||-13.0||-3.7||-2.5||1.0||3.8||3.9|
Key Updates And Forecasts
The weakening of the New Zealand dollar continues to be a drag on the growth prospects of the insurance industry in terms of dollar denominated growth for both sectors and our new forecasts envision dollar contractions in both 2016 and 2017.
New Zealand's life insurance market is underdeveloped but does offer growth potential. At present, we expect life premiums to grow broadly in line with GDP, increasing from around NZD2.4bn in 2015 to over NZD3.0bn in 2020, while over the longer term demographic trends, including an ageing population and increasing household disposable income, will lead to increased demand.
The New Zealand Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's New Zealand Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the New Zealand insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for New Zealand to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in New Zealand's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in New Zealand through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.