BMI View: Over the forecast period New Zealand will continue to present a gradually deteriorating operating environment for drugmakers. P harmac 's limited and oversubscribed budget, will not allow for significant expansion in the volume and value of the pharmaceutical market as prices are held down. However, if ratified the Trans Pacific Partnership would likely p lace great restraints on Pharmac 's ability to do so and see New Zealand's regulators forced to accept higher prices for high value pharmaceuticals and biologics. However, a rapidly ageing population and already record levels of insurance claims suggests that far greater private sector participation will be necessary to support such prices.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals : NZD1.45bn (USD1.20bn) in 2014 to NZD1.48bn (USD1.07bn) in 2015; 2% in local currency terms and -11.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: NZD22.57bn (USD18.72bn) in 2014 to NZD23.10bn (USD16.63bn) in 2015; 2.3% in local currency terms and -11.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
In BMI's Q4 2015 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRIs), New Zealand, sustaining its place from Q3 2015, is ranked ninth out of the 19 markets in the matrix. With a score of 53.1 out of 100, unchanged from the previous three quarters, the country remained just above the regional average of 52.7. A strong and predictable environment of low operating risks are weighed down by a small market and low potential for growth relative to other markets in the region.
Key Trends & Developments
In June 2015, New Zealand's Prime Minister, John Key, stated that the country's residents would not be required to pay more than NZD5 (USD3.48) for subsidised prescriptions, no matter what happened to Pharmac under the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Pharmac is New Zealand's bulk-drug buying agency. The announcement followed a leak of TPP text by Wikileaks, suggesting there...
The New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for New Zealand, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in New Zealand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.