New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 13 February 2015

  • 86 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Despite policy initiatives designed to increase the pace of generic penetration, high latent demand for branded pharmaceuticals will continue to be underpinned by New Zealand's ageing and expanding population. However, the conversion of such potential into rewards for multinationals will remain largely dependent upon PHARMAC's budget which , already oversubscribed, is unlikely to receive significant extensions to its annual increase over our forecast period. As such, New Zealand will continue to offer multinationals a transparent and competitive operating environment of low to moderate operational risk s , in exchange for low, yet consistent potential rewards .

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals : NZD1.451bn (USD1.18bn) in 2014 to NZD1.48bn (USD1.10bn) in 2015; 2% in local currency terms and -6.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: NZD22.20bn (USD17.98bn) in 2014 to NZD22.74bn (USD16.82bn) in 2015; 2.4% in local currency terms and -6.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

BMI's Risk/Reward Index

New Zealand's scores an overall 53.1 out of 100, a decline from 53.6 the previous year, is supported by its stable economic and political institutions and developed regulatory regime. However, the small size and modest growth of this market cause New Zealand to markedly underperform in the industry rewards segment relative to the region. As such, the country remains ranked ninth out of the 19 markets in the Asia Pacific RRI matrix.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In December 2014, the Australian and New Zealand governments closed negotiations on the trans-Tasman scheme to establish joint regulation of drugs and other bio-medical products, which had been in process for more than a decade. Discussion of the cross-border scheme to establish the Australia-New Zealand Therapeutic Products Agency (ANZTPA) had been ongoing since 1999. Australia's pharmaceutical industry,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
19
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
20
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2010-2018)
24
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2018)
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (New Zealand 2012-2018)
26
Other Healthcare Data
27
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: Economic Activity (New Zealand 2009-2018)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Asia Risk/Reward Index
34
New Zealand Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Industry Trends And Developments
43
Epidemiology
43
Healthcare Sector
45
Infrastructure
47
Table: Regional Ranking of Projected Physicians, 2017
49
Table: Projected Physicians, 2012-2017
50
Table: Active Medical Practitioners, 2005-2010
50
Distribution Channels
51
Table: Pharmacybrands Stores by Company & Region, 2010
53
Research and Development (R&D)
53
Clinical Trials Sector
54
Regulatory Development
56
Regulatory Regime
56
Intellectual Property Regime
56
Pricing & Reimbursement
58
Table: Leading Therapeutic Groups By PHARMAC Expenditure (NZDmn), 2005-2010
62
Table: Top 20 Medicines By Ex-Manufacturer Cost To PHARMAC In The Year Ending June 2010 (NZDmn)
63
Table: Top 20 Medicines Reimbursed By PHARMAC According To Prescription Numbers In The Year Ending June 2010
64
Recent Regulatory Developments
65
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Licensed Medicine Manufacturing Sites
66
Company Profile
69
Douglas Pharmaceuticals
69
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals
72
Southern Cross Healthcare Group
75
Demographic Forecast
81
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
82
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
83
Table: New Zealand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
84
Table: New Zealand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
84
Glossary
85
Methodology
87
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
87
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
87
Notes On Methodology
88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Index Overview
90
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
90
Indicator Weightings
91

The New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for New Zealand, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in New Zealand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc