New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The free reign that New Zealand's Pharmaceutical Management Agency (PHARMAC) has over pharmaceutical spending will come under pressure. While the agency's stringent approach to listing medicines has helped to curtail drug spending, it has limited access to novel 'first-in-class' medicines. This in turn has created public pressure from both patient groups and politicians that could infringe upon PHARMAC's operations. The Trans-Pacific Partnership will also have ramifications on the agency as stronger biologic protection delays the introduction of biosimilars.

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals : NZD1.48bn (USD1.0bn) in 2015 to NZD1.51bn (USD932mn) in 2016; 2.0% in local currency terms and -9.8% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: NZD23.09bn (USD16.11bn) in 2015 to NZD23.63bn (USD14.58bn) in 2016; 2.4% in local currency terms and -9.5% in US dollar terms.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 1.203 1.033 0.932 0.887 0.945 0.966 0.987
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.56
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3
Health spending, USDbn 18.718 16.107 14.580 13.912 14.868 15.234 15.614

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q2 2016 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), New Zealand dropped one place from its Q1 2016 standing, coming in at 10th out of 19 markets. With a score of 51 out of 100, the country is now ranked below the regional average of 52.3. A strong and predictable environment of low operating risks are weighed down by a small market and low potential for growth relative to other markets in the region.

Latest Updates

  • In January 2016, the Pharmaceutical Management Agency was reported to be considering the option of listing Keytruda (pembrolizumab) following a second price offer from Merck & Co.

  • That same month, the Ministry of Health disclosed that there have 67 cases of the Zika virus in New Zealand since 2002. This follows the hospitalisation of one man due to the virus and the diagnosis of nine new Zealanders who had travelled overseas.

  • The Medical Workforce Survey for 2013/14 released in January 2016 also noted that the number of active doctors in the country has increased by 2.7% to 15,336 by 2014. Doctors were also found to be older with the average at 46 and the largest group of doctors aged between 50 and 54.

BMI Economic View

We expect the New Zealand dollar to face continued fundamental downside pressures as its fragile external accounts leave it exposed to capital outflows as real interest rates decline. New Zealand's Q215 real GDP growth figures showed that the economy remained weak, and we maintain our below consensus growth forecast of 2.4% and 2.5% for 2015 and 2016 as the dairy sector continues to suffer from depressed milk prices, while construction growth slows.

BMI Political View

The failure of New Zealand to obtain the concessions it sought for dairy and pharmaceuticals suggest that the ratification of the TPP will face opposition within the country. Reactions from politicians and the dairy industry have been mixed, and this uncertainty will further undermine the government's attempts at ratifying the treaty. As such, the process will require more time, and the agreement is unlikely to be ratified before 2017.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
12
Healthcare Market Forecast
13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
14
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
15
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
15
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
16
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
17
Patented Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
19
Generic Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
21
OTC Medicine Forecast
22
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2020)
23
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
24
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020)
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (New Zealand 2014-2020)
25
Industry Risk Reward Index
26
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
26
New Zealand Risk/Reward Index
32
Rewards
32
Risks
32
Regulatory Review
34
Regulatory Development
34
Intellectual Property Issues
34
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
35
Table: Top 20 Medicines By Ex-Manufacturer Cost To PHARMAC In The Year Ending June 2010 (NZDmn)
40
Table: Top 20 Medicines Reimbursed By PHARMAC According To Prescription Numbers In The Year Ending June 2010
41
Market Overview
43
Healthcare Sector
44
Table: Healthcare Resources (New Zealand 2010-2015)
45
Table: Healthcare Activity (New Zealand 2010-2015)
46
Table: Healthcare Personnel (New Zealand 2010-2015)
46
Research & Development
47
Clinical Trials
47
Epidemiology
49
Competitive Landscape
53
Research-Based Industry
53
Table: Multinational Market Activity
54
Pharmaceutical Distribution
54
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
55
Company Profile
57
Douglas Pharmaceuticals
57
New Zealand Pharmaceuticals
60
Pfizer New Zealand
62
Demographic Forecast
64
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025)
65
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025)
65
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025)
67
Glossary
69
Methodology
71
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
71
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
71
Notes On Methodology
72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Index Overview
74
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Indicator Weightings
75

The New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for New Zealand, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the New Zealand pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in New Zealand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.