Nigeria Agribusiness Report

Published 06 August 2015

  • 101 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Nigeria Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We take a mixed view of the Nigerian agribusiness sector . The cocoa industry assumes a greater importance in the country's medium - term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer be relied upon as an easy source of foreign exchange . We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantations and processing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to move forward . Poultry, dairy, sugar , rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largely on imports to meet demand , although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commoditie s (apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. Poor infrastructure, fragmentation and a lack of access to finance and expertise are among the factors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the medium - term prospects for self-sufficiency.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth to 2018/19: 53.9% to 381,600 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2019: 1.5% to 7.9mn tonnes. Weaker demand from the livestock industry will hold down consumption growth.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: increase of 2.2 % to USD96.4 bn in 2015; forecast to grow by 35.3% from 2014-2019.

  • Real GDP growth in 2015: 3.9% (down from 6.3% in 2014).

  • Consumer price index in 2015: 10.0% ave (up from 8.1% in 2014).

Industry Developments

Parts of Nigeria are suffering from the effects of a drought that may hamper the mid-crop cocoa harvest. In May, Bloomberg reported that beans harvested in Ekiti State in the west of the country were underweight or malformed, making them unfit for export. Meanwhile, Reuters reported in June that pods in the key cocoa-growing region Ondo State had been damaged by the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Cocoa Outlook
13
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
14
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
19
Rice Outlook
21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2013-2019)
22
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
26
Livestock And Dairy Outlook
28
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
29
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
30
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
30
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
34
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
35
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
35
Grains Outlook
37
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
38
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
38
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
43
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
43
Sugar Outlook
45
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
46
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
48
Commodities Price Analysis
50
Monthly Softs Strategy
50
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States
54
Monthly Grains Strategy
55
Table: Grain Prices With Select Metrics (USc/bushel)
56
Upstream Analysis
58
Africa GM Outlook
58
Table: Farm Size By Region
61
Africa Machinery Outlook
64
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
64
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
69
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
69
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
71
Downstream Analysis
77
Food
77
Food Consumption
77
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019)
78
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019)
78
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
79
Mass Grocery Retail
80
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
80
Drink
82
Alcoholic Drinks
82
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
83
Soft Drinks
83
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Nigeria 2014-2019)
84
Regional Overview
85
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
85
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector
88
Competitive Landscape
92
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
92
Demographic Forecast
93
Demographic Outlook
93
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
94
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
94
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
95
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
95
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
96
Methodology
98
Industry Forecast Methodology
98
Sector-Specific Methodology
99

The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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