BMI View: Our view on the Nigerian agribusiness sector is mixed. The cocoa industry assumes a greater importance in the country's medium-term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer be relied upon as an easy source of foreign exchange. We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantations and processing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to move forward. Poultry, dairy, sugar, rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largely on imports to meet demand, although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commodities (apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. In each case, consumption growth is expected to be weakened by the country ' s macroeconomic situation, particularly in the earlier years of our forecast period. Poor infrastructure, lack of access to inputs and basic technology, fragmentation and a lack of access to finance and expertise are among the factors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the medium-term prospects for self-sufficiency.
Key BMI Forecasts
Cocoa production growth to 2019/20: 44.5% to 289,100 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.
Corn consumption growth to 2020: 12.8% to 8.5mn tonnes. Population growth will be the key driver of increased demand.
2016 real GDP growth: -0.8% (down from 2.8% in 2015).
2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 15.1% (up from 9.0% in 2015).
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Nigeria remains in the grip of the most serious avian flu outbreak to hit the country since a major epidemic in 2006. The disease has spread throughout the country and into neighbouring states. The FAO estimates that as many as 3.5mn birds have so far died from the disease or been destroyed by veterinary authorities.
We have reduced our 2016 and 2017 consumption forecasts for all commodities sensitive to cuts in discretionary household spending. This is on the back of the deteriorating macroeconomic situation, as a result of which we expect to see lower GDP growth and higher inflation out to the end of 2017. Directly affected will be poultry, pork, milk, rice, wheat, sugar and cocoa, while even the staple grain corn will see slackening off of consumption growth due to weaker demand from the livestock sector.
An increase in rainfall towards the end of the rainy season has raised expectations among farmers and local industry analysts of an extended 2016/17 main crop season and higher yields, according to CNBC Africa. This follows a 2015/16 harvest hit by extended spells of dry weather. There are concerns that excessive rainfall could lead to an increase in pests and disease and NAN has reported an infestation of caterpillars causing damage to plantations in Cross River State. Nevertheless, high cocoa prices are likely to see farmers invest in the inputs necessary to contain these threats.
The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.