Nigeria Agribusiness Report

Published 18 May 2015

  • 108 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Nigeria Agribusiness Report

BMI View: One of the last acts of the outgoing administration has been to revise the target for a ban on rice imports from 2015 to 2017. While not a hugely surprising or significant move in itself, it is emblematic of the gap between the government's ambition and its delivery on agricultural policy. Nigeria continues to import as much as two - thirds of the rice it consumes and is even more reliant on wheat and sugar imports to meet burgeoning domestic demand. However, it would be churlish to deny the genuine progress that has been made under the Minister of Agriculture, Akinwumi Adesina : the cocoa sector has received much needed attention in the form of improved seedlings and distribution of key inputs , while we see sturdy foundations for growth in livestock, sugar and rice production , even if the results will be reaped by the new administration.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth to 2018/19: 53.9% to 381,600 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2019: 1.5% to 7.9mn tonnes. Weaker demand from the livestock industry will hold down consumption growth.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: increase of less than 0.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to USD5.97bn in 2015; forecast to grow by 35.6% from 2014-2019.

  • Real GDP growth 2015: 3.9% y-o-y (down from 6.3% in 2014).

  • Consumer price index (% y-o-y ave) 2015: 10.0% (up from 8.1% in 2014).

Industry Developments

The latest reports from Bloomberg suggest that farmers in the south west of Nigeria are seeing yields dropping by as much as 40% in the early stages of the mid-crop harvest. However, the outlook in the south-eastern cocoa-growing regions is reported to be much more positive due to plentiful rainfall. We have revised down our forecast for 2014/15 cocoa output to 225,000 tonnes, below the International...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
BMI Industry View - Nigeria
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Cocoa Outlook
15
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
16
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
22
Rice Outlook
24
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
25
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
28
Livestock And Dairy Outlook
29
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
31
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
31
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
31
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
36
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
36
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
36
Grains Outlook
38
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
39
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
39
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
44
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
44
Sugar Outlook
46
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
47
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2009-2014)
49
Commodities Price Analysis
51
Monthly Softs Strategy
51
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
60
Monthly Grains Strategy
61
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
68
Upstream Analysis
69
Africa GM Outlook
69
Table: Farm Size By Region
72
Africa Machinery Outlook
74
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
75
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
80
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
80
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
81
Downstream Analysis
86
Mass Grocery Retail
86
Food
88
Food Consumption
88
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019)
89
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2018)
89
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
89
Drink
90
Alcoholic Drinks
90
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2013-2019)
91
Soft Drinks
91
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Nigeria 2014-2019)
92
Regional Overview
93
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
93
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector
96
Competitive Landscape
100
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
100
Demographic Forecast
101
Demographic Outlook
101
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
102
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
102
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Sector-Specific Methodology
107

The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc