Nigeria Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Nigeria Agribusiness Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Nigeria Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Our view on the Nigerian agribusiness sector is mixed. The cocoa industry assumes a greater importance in the country's medium-term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer be relied upon as an easy source of foreign exchange. We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantations and processing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to move forward. Poultry, dairy, sugar, rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largely on imports to meet demand, although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commodities (apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. In each case, consumption growth is expected to be weakened by the country ' s macroeconomic situation, particularly in the earlier years of our forecast period. Poor infrastructure, lack of access to inputs and basic technology, fragmentation and a lack of access to finance and expertise are among the factors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the medium-term prospects for self-sufficiency.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth to 2019/20: 44.5% to 289,100 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2020: 12.8% to 8.5mn tonnes. Population growth will be the key driver of increased demand.

  • 2016 real GDP growth: -0.8% (down from 2.8% in 2015).

  • 2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 15.1% (up from 9.0% in 2015).

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

  • Nigeria remains in the grip of the most serious avian flu outbreak to hit the country since a major epidemic in 2006. The disease has spread throughout the country and into neighbouring states. The FAO estimates that as many as 3.5mn birds have so far died from the disease or been destroyed by veterinary authorities.

  • We have reduced our 2016 and 2017 consumption forecasts for all commodities sensitive to cuts in discretionary household spending. This is on the back of the deteriorating macroeconomic situation, as a result of which we expect to see lower GDP growth and higher inflation out to the end of 2017. Directly affected will be poultry, pork, milk, rice, wheat, sugar and cocoa, while even the staple grain corn will see slackening off of consumption growth due to weaker demand from the livestock sector.

  • An increase in rainfall towards the end of the rainy season has raised expectations among farmers and local industry analysts of an extended 2016/17 main crop season and higher yields, according to CNBC Africa. This follows a 2015/16 harvest hit by extended spells of dry weather. There are concerns that excessive rainfall could lead to an increase in pests and disease and NAN has reported an infestation of caterpillars causing damage to plantations in Cross River State. Nevertheless, high cocoa prices are likely to see farmers invest in the inputs necessary to contain these threats.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Cocoa Outlook
11
Table: Nigeria - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook
11
Table: Risks To Outlook
12
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
14
Rice Outlook
15
Table: Nigeria - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
15
Table: Risks To Outlook
16
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
18
Livestock And Dairy Outlook
19
Table: Nigeria - Poultry Production & Consumption Outlook
19
Table: Nigeria - Pork Production & Consumption Outlook
20
Table: Nigeria - Milk Production & Consumption Outlook
20
Table: Risks To Outlook
21
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
22
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
23
Grains Outlook
24
Table: Nigeria - Wheat Production & Consumption Outlook
24
Table: Nigeria - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
25
Table: Risks To Outlook
25
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
28
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
28
Sugar Outlook
29
Table: Nigeria - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
29
Table: Risks To Outlook
30
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Nigeria 2012-2020)
31
Commodities Price Analysis
32
Global Commodities Strategy
32
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE AND BMI FORECASTS
32
Upstream Analysis
34
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
34
Africa Machinery Outlook
41
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
41
Africa GM Outlook
47
Downstream Analysis
54
Food
54
Latest Updates
54
Structural Trends
55
Table: Food Sales (Nigeria 2013-2020)
57
Regional Overview
60
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
60
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
66
Demographic Forecast
67
Demographic Outlook
67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
70
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Sector-Specific Methodology
73

The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.