Nigeria Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Nigeria Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Real GDP growth in Nigeria will be weak in 2016 - we forecast a 3.1% expansion - as the naira peg and capital controls will continue to weigh on economic activity through the course of the year, exacerbating the global oil price slump's effects on the Nigerian economy. While 3.1% growth would mark an acceleration on 2015's 2.8%, it is nevertheless a downward revision from our previous forecast of 3.6%. This revision is due to delays to the planned expansionary budget and a recent data release, which has shown the extent to which businesses are being hampered by capital controls.

  • The Nigerian government's move to secure USD6bn in loans from China signals two things: strengthening relations with the Asian giant and a reluctance to comply with the stipulations on economic policy which would likely have accompanied an IMF loan. Relatedly, Nigeria will be able to further delay any devaluation to the naira, which has been controversially pegged at NGN197-199/USD since February 2014.

  • Nigeria's current account deficit will narrow slightly in 2016 thanks to declining imports rather than any macroeconomic improvement or boost in exports. It will remain wide in 2017, but the launch of a new domestic oil refinery in 2018 will help narrow in the deficit thereon in.

  • A surprise reversal in monetary policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will spook rather than reassure investors. While central bank governor Godwin Emefiele has laid the blame for a slowdown in economic growth at the door of everyone but the bank, we do not expect any significant turnaround until there is some relaxation of the exchange rate peg and capital controls.

Key Risks

  • While we believe that security risks will eventually be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially affect investment, exports, and growth.

  • Power sector reforms are crucial for long-term productivity gains. If these are slowed or stalled, this would lead to lower long-term trend growth than we currently expect.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 6.3 2.8 3.1 4.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 545.8 476.0 463.5 488.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 8.0 9.6 10.0 9.0
Exchange rate NGN/USD, eop 183.48 199.30 230.00 240.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.2 -2.4 -3.4 -3.1
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.2 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Naira Peg Will Exacerbate Low Oil Impact On Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
China Deal Not A Silver Bullet For Macro Woes
11
Structural Fiscal Position
13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Flailing Economy, Not Exports Boost, Will Reduce Current Account Deficit
14
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy
17
Policy Reversal Insufficient As Peg Still Stands
17
Monetary Policy Framework
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Nigerian Economy To 2025
21
Power Sector
Power Sector
Key For Long-Term Productivity
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
27
SWOT Analysis
27
BMI Political Risk Index
27
Domestic Politics
28
Controversial Buhari Policies Will Weigh On Growth
28
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
28
Long-Term Political Outlook
29
Inequality, Corruption And Militancy Pose Long-Term Challenges
29
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
33
SWOT Analysis
33
Operational Risk Index
33
Operational Risk
34
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
34
Economic Openness
35
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT PRODUCTS & IMPORT PARTNERS, 2010-2014, USDMN
37
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
38
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
39
Availability Of Labour
40
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
41
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
43
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Macro Outlook
45
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
47
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
49

Assess your risk exposure in Nigeria with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Nigeria with confidence.

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