Nigeria Infrastructure Report

Published 06 May 2015

  • 92 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Nigeria Infrastructure Report

BMI View : Despite the peaceful passing of the Nigerian election, we remain cautious in our forecasts for real growth in the Nigerian construction sector over 2015 and 2016. Our forecast s stand at 11% and 9.8 0 % for 2015 and 2016 respectively, with growth averaging 10.6% over our 10-year forecast period to 2024 . President-elect Buhari faces severe macroeconomic headwinds , which will weigh on growth, but his rhetoric on reform to PPPs and tackling corruption bodes well for the long-term attractiveness of the infrastructure sector to investors.

The best case election scenario has played out, in that there looks set to be a peaceful transition of power from incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and the victor in March's election president-elect Muhammadu Buharo. While this may give a slight boost to the economy, given previous downside risk not materialising, we remain downbeat on 2015 and 2016 in terms of growth in the construction sector.

A fall in oil prices will be the major drag on growth. The naira has depreciated, interest rates have been hiked and importantly government revenues will be lower than expected. Combined, public and private investment in the sector will be lower over 2015 and 2016.

Over the long-term however, we expect Buhari to attempt to deal with the corruption which plague's Nigeria's infrastructure, power and oil and gas sectors, as well as continue the reforms and development plans implemented under President Goodluck Jonathan. Furthermore, we expect the major projects will continue to be supported by Chinese financiers and companies.

The potential of Nigeria's infrastructure market has long been known, however a chronic lack of investment and the laborious business environment has limited its growth prospects. We highlight persistent risks hampering the implementation of major projects, ranging from deep-rooted corruption and violence perpetrated by militants to inefficient bureaucracy.

Key Trends And Developments

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Infrastructure SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2012-2017)
11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2018-2023)
12
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
13
Table: IOC Nigerian Asset Divestments
17
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
19
Industry Forecast Scenario
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2012-2017)
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2018-2023)
20
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
21
Major Projects Table - Transport
35
Table: Major Projects - Transport
35
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview
42
Industry Forecast Scenario
42
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Nigeria 2012-2017)
42
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Nigeria 2018-2023)
42
Energy & Utilities Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
43
Table: NIPP Gas-fired Power Plant Sales: Preferred And Reserve Bidders
45
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
50
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
50
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
56
Industry Forecast Scenario
56
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Nigeria 2012-2017)
56
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Nigeria 2018-2023)
56
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview
57
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential
66
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
68
Nigeria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
68
Rewards
68
Risks
69
Sub-Saharan Africa - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
69
Table: SSA Infrastructure Risk Reward Index, Scores Out Of 100
75
Market Overview
76
Competitive Landscape
76
Table: Ease Of Doing Business - Dealing with Construction Permits
80
Table: Equities
81
Company Profile
82
Julius Berger Nigeria Plc
82
Setraco Nigeria Limited
84
Global Industry Overview
86
Table: Construction Industry Value, Real Terms, % Change
87
Table: BMI's Top 5 Markets
91
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
94
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
98
Sector-Specific Methodology
99
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
100

The Nigeria Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Nigeria Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Nigerian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Nigerian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Nigerian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc