Nigeria Infrastructure Report

Published 06 August 2015

  • 95 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Nigeria Infrastructure Report

BMI View : The outlook for Nigeria's construction sector over 2015 and 2016 remains downbeat on the back of the fall in global oil prices ; and lower government revenue, devaluation of the naira and associated inflationary pressures will restrict public and private investment in projects. T he peaceful Nigerian election s offer opportunit ies for investors , but President Buhari needs to introduce reforms and tackl e corruption to capitalise on it. Chinese funding will shield some major projects, keeping growth in the sector elevated.

Our forecasts are 11% and 9.80% for 2015 and 2016 respectively, with growth averaging 10.6% over our 10-year forecast period to 2024.

The best case election scenario has played out following a peaceful transition of power from incumbent Goodluck Jonathan and the victor in March's election PresidentMuhammadu Buhari. While this may give a slight boost to the economy, given previous downside risk not materialising, we remain downbeat on 2015 and 2016 in terms of growth in the construction sector.

A fall in oil prices will be the major drag on growth. The naira has depreciated, interest rates have been hiked and importantly government revenues will be lower than expected. Combined, public and private investment in the sector will be lower over 2015 and 2016.

Over the long-term however, we expect Buhari to attempt to deal with the corruption which plague's Nigeria's infrastructure, power and oil and gas sectors; as well as continue the reforms and development plans implemented under Goodluck Jonathan. We also expect the major projects will continue to be supported by Chinese financiers and companies.

The potential of Nigeria's infrastructure market has long been known, however a chronic lack of investment and the laborious business environment has limited its growth prospects. We highlight persistent risks hampering the implementation of major projects, ranging from deep-rooted corruption and violence perpetrated by militants...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Infrastructure SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2013-2018)
11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2019-2024)
12
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
13
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
18
Industry Forecast Scenario
18
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2013-2018)
18
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2019-2024)
19
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
20
Table: KEY PROJECTS: Transport
32
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview
39
Industry Forecast Scenario
39
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Nigeria 2013-2018)
39
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Nigeria 2019-2024)
39
Energy & Utilities Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
40
Table: NIPP Gas-fired Power Plant Sales: Preferred And Reserve Bidders
43
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
48
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
51
Industry Forecast Scenario
51
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Nigeria 2013-2018)
51
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Nigeria 2019-2024)
51
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview
52
Table: Key Projects: Construction And Social Infrastructure
61
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
64
Nigeria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
64
Rewards
64
Risks
65
SSA Infrastructure Challenged By Global Headwinds
65
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa's Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2015
70
Market Overview
71
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Ease Of Doing Business - Dealing with Construction Permits
75
Table: Equities
76
Company Profile
77
Julius Berger Nigeria Plc
77
Setraco Nigeria Limited
79
Global Industry Overview
81
Table: Infrastructure Key Themes 2015
81
Table: Asia: Key Reforms
86
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sector-Specific Methodology
89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
94
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
95

The Nigeria Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Nigeria Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Nigerian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Nigerian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Nigerian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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