BMI View: De spite of being small in scale at present, Nigeria's insurance sector has significant growth potential and is well-placed to expand rapidly in the foreseeable future , as rising disposable income and a growing middle class provide an uptick in demand for key consumer lines. These factors will render the Nigerian market increasingly attractive to foreign investors - whose presence will likely increase market consolidation as well as accelerate product innovations.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/NAICOM|
|Gross life premiums written, NGNbn||80.52||89.24||102.95||113.84||130.63||148.45||166.71||185.57|
|Gross life premiums written, NGN, % y-o-y||24.1||10.8||15.4||10.6||14.8||13.6||12.3||11.3|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||0.51||0.54||0.52||0.53||0.56||0.61||0.65||0.70|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||23.8||6.9||-3.7||1.9||4.8||9.0||7.9||7.1|
|Gross non-life premiums written, NGNbn||185.77||207.58||208.16||224.82||243.25||264.92||288.35||316.63|
|Gross non-life premiums written, NGN, % y-o-y||1.9||11.7||0.3||8.0||8.2||8.9||8.8||9.8|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||1.17||1.26||1.05||1.05||1.04||1.08||1.13||1.19|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||1.7||7.7||-16.3||-0.5||-1.2||4.5||4.6||5.7|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Nigeria's life insurance segment will remain under-developed; however, it will display rapid growth rates of 12.5% annually over the coming years, reaching NGN185.6bn (USD700mn) in 2020 - up from NGN113.8bn (USD530mn) in 2016.
Accounting for 66% of total premiums written in 2016, non-life insurance will continue to be the larger insurance segment in Nigeria. However, with an expected market share of 63% in 2020, it will be outperformed by life insurance in terms of growth potential. Over the coming years, non-life insurance will grow by 8.8% annually to NGN317.9bn (USD1.2bn) in 2020 - up from NGN225bn (USD1.05bn) in 2016.
Key factors accounting for these growth prospects include the demographic changes in Nigeria's large population alongside growth in disposable income, giving rise to a larger middle-class. Over time, these macro trends should attract increasingly more foreign investors seeking to establish a presence in Nigeria's growing insurance sector. Increased consolidation through acquisitions by foreign firms, especially within non-life insurance, is not out of the question as a large number of smaller domestic firms continue to struggle to raise capital in accordance with the NAICOM's capital requirements.
The Nigeria Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Nigeria Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Nigerian insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Nigeria's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.