Nigeria Petrochemicals Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the petrochemicals.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Nigeria Petrochemicals Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

The Nigerian polymers market will be largely fulfilled by imports, with domestic capacities remaining small and operating well below capacity. Growth will be strong but from a low base as far as per capita consumption is concerned.

In 2016, Nigeria had olefins production capacities of 550,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene and 125,000tpa propylene, with thermoplastic resins capacities of 240,000tpa linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and 95,000tpa polypropylene (PP). Additional capacity came onstream in 2016 with Indorama Eleme Petrochemical (IEPL) commissioning a mega-sized fertiliser project comprising 1.4mn tpa of urea, a gas pipeline and jetty projects. The fertiliser plant's main project components involve 2,300 tonnes per day (tpd) ammonia, 4,000tpa urea and 4,000tpd urea granulation plant.

The long-term outlook is clouded by the difficulties of transition to a growth model that is not driven by oil, be they fiscal or political. The naira has depreciated, which could restrain import growth somewhat, while a hike in interest rates could curtail consumption. Part of our long-term optimism on Nigeria's headline growth depends on more efficient and wider-reaching electricity supply. Our baseline assumption is that improving power delivery will unlock productivity gains for the non-oil sector. Development of the manufacturing sector in particular will help Nigeria's petrochemicals consumption with construction, the automotive sector, packaging and agriculture taking the lead in the local market growth story.

  • There is a steady rise in the non-oil component of growth as well as greater political certainty under the Buhari administration, both of which should support the performance of the Nigerian petrochemicals market. Moreover, growth activity is likely to strengthen over our five-year forecast to 2021.

  • A crucial development for Nigeria's downstream sector is Dangote's 650,000b/d refinery, which will be online by 2019. This could enable the country to become a net refined fuels exporter by the second half of our forecast period, eradicating the need for refined fuels imports. Dangote is also planning a fertiliser plant that would produce 2.8mn tpa of urea and ammonia and a PP plant with capacity of 650,000tpa.

  • Nigeria comes in at 10th place in BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for the Middle East and Africa this year with 38.0 points - up from 11th place in 2016, despite losing 0.3 points. The decline in the score is related to a 5.9-point decline in country risk, which is partly offset by a 10.0-point increase in market risk. Nigeria's score could rise if all projects come onstream as expected, but bearing in mind past disappointment, BMI remains circumspect about Nigeria's ability to deliver capacity growth in a highly challenging investment environment.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Production
16
Table: Nigeria's Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2020 ('000 tpa)
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Table: Economic Activity (Nigeria 2010-2019)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
22
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2016
27
Nigeria Risk/Reward Index
28
Market Overview
29
Business Environment
30
Table: Nigeria's Petrochemicals Facilities
31
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Upstream Sectors
34
Company Profile
36
Eleme Petrochemicals Company (EPCL) (Indorama)
36
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)
38
Regional Overview
42
Middle East And Africa Overview
42
Market Diversification Crucial To Growth
44
Tightening Ethane Supplies
45
Diversification Is The Long-Term Focus
47
Africa Falls Behind
47
Global Industry Overview
49
Feedstock Differentials: Respite for Europe
49
2016 Feedstock Outlook
51
Could US Gas Run out-
52
Market Outlook: Chinese Downturn
53
Long-term Outlook
53
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
57
Demographic Forecast
58
Demographic Outlook
58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
61
Glossary
63
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
63
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Nigeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Nigeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Nigerian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Nigerian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Nigerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.