Nigeria Telecommunications Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast Scenario, Telecommunications Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Regulatory Environment, Company Profiles and Competitive

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
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Nigeria Telecommunications Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We hold a positive and favourable outlook for the Nigerian mobile market and the telecommunications sector as a whole. Mobile penetration topped 82% in Q315 and broadband penetration still remains very low. There remains significant demand for traditional voice and data services that has gone thus far untapped. A rapidly maturing tower market will enable operators to extend networks into rural areas more cost effectively, while allocation of wholesale Infraco licences will ensure investment into next generation broadband networks. However, there are important industry and external risks to smooth growth. Nigeria's government has twice postponed 4G spectrum auctions and has requested a report investigating the sale of incumbent telecoms operator NITEL, which will delay investment into wireline and mobile data networks. Meanwhile, power shortages, a weaker economic outlook amid lower oil prices and ongoing terrorist attacks all pose additional operational challenges and downside risk to our growth outlook.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • The market posted significant growth in 9M15 and ended Q315 with a total of 150.5mn mobile subscribers, a penetration rate of over 82.5%.

  • A total of 11.57mn new subscribers were added in 9M15, beating our initial estimates. We believe the overall mobile figure is likely to jump to 168.2mn by the end of 2016 before ending our forecast period with an impressive 196.2mn in 2019. We do nevertheless caution that there could still exist a significant amount of inactive connections in the market that could pose a downside risk to our forecast.

  • The mandatory registration process enforced by the government has spelled significant trouble for market leader, MTN. MTN failed to deactivate around 5mn unregistered accounts by the August 2015 deadline. MTN was originally fine USD5.2bn, a sum which was later reduced to USD3.9bn.

Data Growth Not Strong Enough To Offset Voice Competition
MTN Revenue By Segment (ZARmn) & Active 3G Devices
Note: MTN reports revenues on a half-yearly basis. Source: MTN
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019)
15
Industry Risk Reward Index
21
Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index - Q4 2015
21
Table: SSA Telecoms Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
24
Market Overview
26
Table: Regional Comparison
27
Market Growth
27
Market Share
28
Table: Nigeria Mobile Market ('000)
31
ARPU
32
Networks
33
Mobile Content
38
Table: Selected Licensed Mobile Money Providers
40
Table: Market Overview
43
Wireline Market
43
Table: Nigeria Fixed-Line Market
44
Table: Nigeria Wireline Developments, 2013-2015
48
Regulatory Development
49
Table: Nigeria - Division Of Regulatory Responsibility
49
Competition
53
Competitive Landscape
57
Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector
57
Table: MTN
57
Table: Globacom
58
Table: Airtel
58
Table: Etisalat
59
Table: CDMA
59
Company Profile
60
NITEL
60
MTN
64
Airtel
68
Globacom
72
Etisalat Nigeria
76
Demographic Forecast
80
Demographic Outlook
80
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
81
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
81
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
82
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
82
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
83
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Terms
85
Methodology
87
Industry Forecast Methodology
87
Sources
89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
91

The Nigeria Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Nigeria's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Nigeria.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Nigerian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.