BMI View: We have a positive outlook for the Nigerian mobile market and the country's telecoms sector in general. We now estimate that mobile penetration was just over 80% at the end of 2015. Meanwhile broadband penetration remains very low. There continues to be significant demand for traditional voice and data services, and to a large extent this demand has remained untapped.
A rapidly maturing tower market will enable operators to extend networks into rural areas more cost effectively, while allocation of wholesale broadband infrastructure licences will ensure investment into next generation broadband networks. However, there are several industry and external risks to sustained growth. The government has twice postponed 4G spectrum auctions and has requested a report investigating the sale of incumbent telecoms operator, NITEL, which will delay investment into wireline and mobile data networks. Meanwhile, power shortages, a weaker economic outlook amid lower oil prices and ongoing terrorist attacks all pose additional operational challenges and downside risk to our growth outlook.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
We estimate that total Nigerian mobile subscriptions grew by 7.29mn in FY15, compared to 11.97mn growth in FY14. This estimate is based on market data published by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) for the first nine months of 2015, together with Q415 data for MTN and Etisalat. Both operators reported a significant fall in customers in the fourth quarter. This was due the implementation of new regulations governing the definition of an active mobile customer. The mandatory registration process enforced by the government has been particularly troublesome for market leader MTN, which failed to deactivate around 5mn unregistered accounts by the August 2015 deadline. In December 2015 Nigeria's communications minister, Adebayo Shittu, warned that MTN was at a risk of facing additional fines if it did not meet the year-end deadline to pay the NGN780bn (USD3.92bn) penalty imposed on it already.
In February 2015 the NCC announced plans to allocate the five remaining wholesale broadband infrastructure licences in 2016 as part of a drive to facilitate the implementation of national broadband development goals. Five more wholesale broadband infrastructure companies were to be licensed in the next three-to-six months, according to the NCC.
|3G And 4G Subscribers Will Account For Over Half Of Mobile Market By 2020|
|Nigeria - Mobile Market, 2013-2020|
|e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The Nigeria Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Nigeria's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Nigeria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Nigerian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.