BMI View: We have a positive outlook for the Nigerian telecoms sector in Q117 and have made some revisions to account for developments in 9M16. The mobile market rebounded to positive growth adding more than 6mn subscriptions in Q316 , following its loss of 2.2mn subscriptions in Q116. W e believe that growth in the market will be driven by registered SIMs re-entering the market and network deployment and expansion activities of operators as they seek growth beyond urban areas. In the wireline market, we expect moderate fixed voice subscriptions to be driven by increased services uptake on the back of wireline network investments and positive moves from the regulator. We, however, note that , on account of the 2016 recession in the market and our forecast of Real GDP growth decelerating in 2019, we have slight ly revised our broadband subscription rates downwards but believe an improving macroeconomic environment in 2016 will be essential in driving broadband access within the market.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Nigerian mobile subscriptions reached 15 6 . 5 mn by the end of Q 3 16, up 4% y-o-y, with penetration reaching 83.7%. That rebound follows a contraction of 1.5% i n Q116 , with the total customer base shrinking by 2.26mn. Airtel and Globacom continued to see positive customer growth in the first quarter of 2016. However, as in Q415, both MTN and Etisalat experienced declining customer bases. Notwithstanding, both experienced positive growth in Q216 and Q316. We currently expect the number of 3G and 4G customers to rise to about 40 mn by the end of 2016, equivalent to 25.2% of the mobile subscriber base, rising to 10 9 . 8 mn by the end of 2020 , equivalent to 5 8 . 4 % of the market.
MTN and the government of Nigeria agreed in June 2016 that the operator will pay a fine of NGN330bn (USD1.671bn), down from the original fine of USD5.2bn, for failing to disconnect unregistered SIMs . Further reducing the burden to a manageable level for the operator, MTN will pay the fine over a period of three years. MTN is considering issuing an IPO to raise an estimated USD1.0bn to pay for the f ine.
|Industry Trends - Mobile|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The Nigeria Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Nigeria's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Nigeria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Nigerian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.