BMI View: BMI forecasts strong growth for Nigeria driven by multitude of factors such as operator's promotional activities, multiple SIM ownership and expanding into underserved rural areas. However, operators are cautioning that fuel shortages and heightened risk of insurgency will be a significant risk factor to the mobile growth. Further to this, auctions for additional spectrum have been postponed twice already and as of June 2015 it appears as if they will be postponed once more. This could dampen our 4G outlook.
Mobile subscriptions grew by 3.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q414, bringing total growth in 2014 to 9.4%.
Mobile ARPU dropped by 0.4% in Q414.
The fixed-line sector contracted by 3.9% in Q414, but expanded by 6.5% y-o-y in December 2014.
The number of mobile data users grew by nearly 19% in the 12 months to December 2014 to account for 55% of total mobile subscriptions.
Nigeria reclaimed the top position on BMI's Q2 2015 Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria's aggregate score of 54.7 out of a possible 100 was an improvement on its aggregate score of 53.7 recorded in the previous quarter. Nigeria retains a comparatively high Industry Rewards, Industry Risk and Country Risk scores, reflecting high voice and data services growth potential, regulatory independence and strong private consumption growth outlook. However, Nigeria's Country Rewards score is held back by a low GDP per capita and high unemployment rate.
Key Trends And Developments
BMI forecasts average mobile growth up to 2019 at 4.3% per annum. Despite projections of strong growth operators are getting increasingly worried about the current operating environment. Airtel Networks Limited stated fuel scarcity could pose a threat to delivering mobile services. Airtel said that while it is doing all within its capacity to ensure high quality services, the scarcity is starting to affect its services as diesel, which it uses to...
The Nigeria Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Nigeria's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Nigeria.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Nigerian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.