BMI View: This quarter we have revised our forecast for the nuclear power sector to reflect the impact of the tax on nuclear power generation, which was increased in 2015. Taking into account positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to expect power consumption growth in 201 6 . Similarly, w e maintain our long-held view that , while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the country , as more regional instability could undermine their economic activity .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||158.970||160.270||158.870||160.520||155.680||150.830||151.710|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||135.2||136.6||137.9||139.1||140.2||141.3||142.2|
|Capacity, Net, MW||41,652.5||42,141.9||42,121.8||42,479.6||42,048.3||41,468.1||41,776.1|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The share of nuclear power in the Swedish electricity mix will decline over the next decade as the phase-down of capacity gains momentum. The phase-down will be the result of a punitive tax on power generated from nuclear power generating facilities - with low wholesale electricity prices in the Nord Pool accentuating the detrimental impact of taxation for operators. As three nuclear reactors are set to be decommissioned over the next five years, the importance of volatile hydropower will increase in the Swedish power mix. In turn, this will elevate the importance of electricity imports over the next decade to ensure power demand is met.
Suitable climatic conditions and stable market conditions will make Sweden an attractive option for Chinese wind equipment manufacturers looking to prove their technology in the European market - supporting their attempts to boost regional exposure and hedge against the risk of a Chinese wind sector slowdown.
Electricity trade between the Nord Pool - which includes Sweden - and external power markets will drive Nordic energy policy over the next decade, as power exports will generate revenues that can be directed towards maintaining and upgrading mature hydropower facilities. Power imports will also help plug gaps in the regional supply due to baseload capacity coming offline amid low Nord Pool wholesale prices.
The Sweden Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Sweden Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sweden, Finland, Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Sweden, Finland, Denmark's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden, Finland, Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).