Nordics Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Nordics Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: This quarter o ur fundamental assumptions for Denmark, Finland and Sweden continue to be relevant. Taking into account relatively positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to expect power consumption growth in 201 6 . Similarly, w e maintain our long-held view that , while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the three Nordic countries, as more regional instability could undermine their economic activity. In terms of sector trends , we note Denmark appears to be losing its energy self-sufficient status; while Sweden's p hase- out of nuclear energy could put at risk the reliability of the system. Conversely, Finland's nuclear sector has seen some positive developments.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • In Denmark, controversy over domestic energy policy will ramp up political pressure on Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and feeds into our view his minority government will struggle to see out the duration of its term to 2019. Potential flashpoints include attempts to water down emission targets - which will compromise Denmark's role as a leader in the fight against climate change during talks in Paris - and the planned IPO of wind power champion, Dong Energy.

  • Pursuing a different route, Finland continues to appear set on supporting its nuclear sector in spite of the substantial delays and cost overruns faced by the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor. We expect nuclear power to dominate the Finnish power agenda over the next decade as the technology enjoys strong government support and is viewed as key to the country's energy security. This preference for nuclear will in turn lead to uncertainty over the future role of other forms of power generation, limiting the potential for growth in these segments.

  • In Sweden, where nuclear and hydropower dominate electricity supply, the energy outlook for the medium- and long term looks less promising. The Social Democrats' and greens' minority government in power since September 2014 have announced their intention to phase out nuclear power and replace it with renewables. It should be noted, however, a change to Sweden's long-term energy strategy is likely to require support from the conservative opposition, thus introducing uncertainty. The deterioration of the operating environment for nuclear power in Sweden will prompt generators, such as E.ON and Vattenfall, to phase down their output, as low electricity prices coupled with new nuclear taxation rules curb profit potential for power generators. Other domestic sources of electricity, such as hydropower, combined with an increase in electricity imports from Norway will therefore have to pick up slack in the power mix over the next decade.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Nordics Snapshot
11
Denmark
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data, 2012, 2017 And 2022
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Finland
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data, 2012, 2017 And 2022
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Sweden
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data, 2012, 2017 And 2022
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Nordics Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Denmark
13
Table: Denmark's Total Electricity Generation, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
13
Table: Denmark's Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
14
Table: Denmark's Electricity Generating Capacity, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
16
Table: Denmark's Electricity Generating Capacity, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
17
Finland
18
Table: Finland's Total Electricity Generation, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
18
Table: Finland's Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
19
Table: Finland's Electricity Generating Capacity, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
21
Table: Finland's Electricity Generating Capacity, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019 2024
22
Sweden
23
Table: Sweden's Total Electricity Generation, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
23
Table: Sweden's Total Electricity Generation, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
24
Table: Sweden's Electricity Generating Capacity, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
26
Table: Sweden's Electricity Generating Capacity, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019 2024
27
Table: Finland's Nuclear Power Reactors - Under Construction And Planned
33
Electricity Consumption
39
Denmark
39
Table: Denmark's Total Electricity Consumption, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
39
Table: Denmark's Total Electricity Consumption, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
39
Finland
39
Table: Finland's Total Electricity Consumption, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
39
Table: Finland's Total Electricity Consumption, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
40
Sweden
40
Table: Sweden's Total Electricity Consumption, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
40
Table: Sweden's Total Electricity Consumption, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
40
Transmission, Distribution And Trade
43
Denmark
43
Table: Denmark's Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
43
Table: Denmark's Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
44
Table: Denmark's Trade, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
44
Table: Denmark's Trade, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
44
Finland
44
Table: Finland's Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
44
Table: Finland's Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
45
Table: Finland's Trade, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
45
Table: Finland's Trade, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
45
Sweden
45
Table: Sweden's Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
45
Table: Sweden's Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
46
Table: Sweden Trade, Data And Forecasts, 2013-2018
46
Table: Sweden's Trade, Long-Term Forecasts, 2019-2024
46
Industry Risk Reward Index
48
Power Risk/Reward Index
48
Table: NAWE Power RRI
52
Nordics Power Risk/Reward Index
53
Rewards
53
Risks
54
Market Overview
55
Regulation And Competition
55
Sustainable Energy Policies
56
Pricing
58
Nordics Power Project Database
59
Denmark
59
Table: Denmark Power Projects Database
59
Finland
61
Table: Finland Power Projects Database
61
Sweden
62
Table: Sweden Power Projects Database
62
Competitive Landscape
64
DONG Energy
65
Vattenfall
65
E
66
Fortum
66
Regional Overview
67
NAWE Power: Key Regional Themes
67
Global Company Strategy
74
E
74
Glossary
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sources
91
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
91
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
93

The Denmark, Finland and Sweden Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Denmark, Finland and Sweden Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sweden, Finland, Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Sweden, Finland, Denmark's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden, Finland, Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).