BMI View: As the Government continues to struggle to identify a solution to its lack of sufficient baseload capacity once nuclear comes offline, our forecast s for the sector remain virtually unchanged. Taking into account positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to expect power consumption growth in 201 7 . Similarly, w e maintain our long-held view that , while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the e urozone and the implications of the decision of Brexit remain a major risk factor for the c onsumption and generation outlook of the country , as more regional instability could undermine economic activity .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||158.970||160.270||158.870||160.520||155.680||150.830||151.710|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||135.2||136.6||137.9||139.1||140.2||141.3||142.2|
|Capacity, Net, MW||41,652.5||42,141.9||42,121.8||42,479.6||42,048.3||41,468.1||41,776.1|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In 2016, the Swedish coalition government (comprising the Social Democrats, the Moderate Party, the Green Party, the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats) ruled that the current tax on nuclear power will be phased out in stages over the next two years. The decision, which signifies a significant U-turn in the left-wing ruling party's policy on nuclear energy, reflects the government's realisation that base-load nuclear power will be needed to support additional intermittent renewables and hydropower generation in the Swedish power mix. That said, we still expect the three ageing nuclear reactors to be phased out by 2020 - with the final decision having been taken by utilities E.ON and Vattenfall. This will lead to a drop in baseload power generation over the next five years, which we expect will be plugged by renewables power generation and electricity trade with the Nord Pool.
Electricity trade between the Nord Pool - which includes Sweden - and external power markets will drive Nordic energy policy over the next decade, as power exports will generate revenues that can be directed towards maintaining and upgrading mature hydropower facilities. Power imports will also help plug gaps in the regional supply due to baseload capacity coming offline amid low Nord Pool wholesale prices.
As an extension of a nuclear phase-down, biomass will play an increasingly important role in Sweden's power mix over the next decade. The country's well-established forestry sector and biomass' high leverage in the heating sector will mean the sector will mean that the potential for combined heat and power (CHP) facilities pose an upside to our 10-year biomass forecast. We currently forecast biomass-fired power generation to expand by an annual average of 1.5% between 2016 and 2025.
The Sweden Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Sweden Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sweden, Finland, Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Sweden, Finland, Denmark's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden, Finland, Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).