BMI View: This quarter o ur fundamental assumptions for Denmark, Finland and Sweden continue to be relevant. Taking into account relatively positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to expect power consumption growth in 201 6 . Similarly, w e maintain our long-held view that , while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the three Nordic countries, as more regional instability could undermine their economic activity. In terms of sector trends , we note Denmark appears to be losing its energy self-sufficient status; while Sweden's p hase- out of nuclear energy could put at risk the reliability of the system. Conversely, Finland's nuclear sector has seen some positive developments.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In Denmark, controversy over domestic energy policy will ramp up political pressure on Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and feeds into our view his minority government will struggle to see out the duration of its term to 2019. Potential flashpoints include attempts to water down emission targets - which will compromise Denmark's role as a leader in the fight against climate change during talks in Paris - and the planned IPO of wind power champion, Dong Energy.
Pursuing a different route, Finland continues to appear set on supporting its nuclear sector in spite of the substantial delays and cost overruns faced by the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor. We expect nuclear power to dominate the Finnish power agenda over the next decade as the technology enjoys strong government support and is viewed as key to the country's energy security. This preference for nuclear will in turn lead to uncertainty over the future role of other forms of power generation, limiting the potential for growth in these segments.
In Sweden, where nuclear and hydropower dominate electricity supply, the energy outlook for the medium- and long term looks less promising. The Social Democrats' and greens' minority government in power since September 2014 have announced their intention to phase out nuclear power and replace it with renewables. It should be noted, however, a change to Sweden's long-term energy strategy is likely to require support from the conservative opposition, thus introducing uncertainty. The deterioration of the operating environment for nuclear power in Sweden will prompt generators, such as E.ON and Vattenfall, to phase down their output, as low electricity prices coupled with new nuclear taxation rules curb profit potential for power generators. Other domestic sources of electricity, such as hydropower, combined with an increase in electricity imports from Norway will therefore have to pick up slack in the power mix over the next decade.
The Denmark, Finland and Sweden Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Denmark, Finland and Sweden Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Sweden, Finland, Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Sweden, Finland, Denmark's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Sweden, Finland, Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).