North Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 07 April 2015

  • 133 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
North Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Markets in North Africa are quickl y evolving from being voice-centric towards becoming data-centric, with mobile broadband being the core driver in all markets. 3G services have been launched with success in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, and the licensing and roll-out of 4G services is also on track. Success is dependent on the overall macroeconomic situation, with higher purchasing power helping with the development of the telecoms market, while the security situation is always at t he forefront in the region. All markets have a mix of public and private operators, though liberalisation is not present in all sectors, and the competition has always driven greater uptake in the region.

Key Data

  • The ADSL market grew above 1mn in Morocco, with total 3G subscriptions growing above 10mn

  • Currency depreciations had a negative impact for international operators present in Algeria and Tunisia, as USD-denominated ARPU declined

  • The Moroccan and Tunisian mobile markets reported declines in Q115, driven by lower multiple-SIM ownership and the convergence of on-net and off-net pricing amongst many commercial plans

Regional Perspective

Morocco is North Africa's over-performer in terms of our regional risk/reward index, the only country to score above MENA's regional average of 47.7. Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria are in the middle of the pack, ranked 8th, 11th and 12th respectively, with Libya in 14th spot. Both Morocco and Tunisia performed better this quarter, thanks to an increase in their country risks score, highlighting greater perspective in terms of private consumption, but Algeria underperformed for opposite reasons, as its reliance on oil turns us more bearish.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Algeria
12
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Algeria 2012-2019)
12
Libya
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Libya 2012-2019)
15
Morocco
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Morocco 2012-2019)
17
Tunisia
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tunisia 2012-2019)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Table: Mena Q215 Risk/Reward Index
27
Market Overview
28
Algeria
28
Key Developments
28
Mobile
28
Table: Algeria - Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2012-2014 (USD)
32
3G
32
Table: 3G Market Data, November 2014
33
Mobile Operator Data
34
Table: Mobilis
34
Table: Djezzy
34
Table: Ooredoo
35
Fixed Line
36
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2005-2013 ('000)
37
Broadband
38
Government Broadband Plans
39
Libya
40
Key Developments
40
Mobile
41
Table: Libya Mobile Market, Q414
42
A Third Operator
42
Fixed Line
44
Broadband
45
Morocco
46
Key Developments
46
Mobile
47
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q414
49
3G
51
Mobile Operator Data
54
Table: Maroc T-l-com
54
Table: M-ditel
54
Table: Wana
55
Fixed Line
55
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2013-2014
56
Broadband
58
Tunisia
61
Key Developments
61
Mobile
61
Table: Tunisia - Mobile Market, Q414
64
Mobile Operator Data
67
Table: Tunisie T-l-com
67
Table: Ooredoo
68
Table: Orange Tunisia
69
Fixed Line
69
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2012-2014
70
Broadband
70
Table: Tunisian Internet Market, 2012-2014
71
Middle East And North Africa Mobile Content - Q2 2015
73
Regulatory Development
76
Table: North African Regulatory Environment
76
Algeria
76
Table: Key Developments
78
Libya
78
Morocco
80
Table: Key Developments
81
Tunisia
81
Competitive Landscape
83
Table: Key Players - North Africa Telecoms Sector
83
Company Profile
84
Alg-rie T-l-com
84
Maroc T-l-com
88
Tunisie T-l-com
92
Orascom Telecom
96
Ooredoo (Tunisiana)
99
Regional Overview
102
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Algeria 1990-2025)
108
Table: Key Population Ratios (Algeria 1990-2025)
108
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Algeria 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group (Algeria 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group % (Algeria 1990-2025)
110
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Libya 1990-2025)
113
Table: Key Population Ratios (Libya 1990-2025)
113
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Libya 1990-2025)
114
Table: Population By Age Group (Libya 1990-2025)
114
Table: Population By Age Group % (Libya 1990-2025)
115
Demographic Outlook
117
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Morocco 1990-2025)
118
Table: Key Population Ratios (Morocco 1990-2025)
118
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Morocco 1990-2025)
119
Table: Population By Age Group (Morocco 1990-2025)
119
Table: Population By Age Group % (Morocco 1990-2025)
120
Demographic Forecast
122
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Tunisia 1990-2025)
123
Table: Key Population Ratios (Tunisia 1990-2025)
123
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Tunisia 1990-2025)
124
Table: Population By Age Group (Tunisia 1990-2025)
124
Table: Population By Age Group % (Tunisia 1990-2025)
125
Glossary
127
Table: Glossary Of Terms
127
Methodology
129
Industry Forecast Methodology
129
Sources
131
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
131
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
132
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
133

The North Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian, Libyan, Moroccan, Tunisian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc