North Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 13 January 2015

  • 117 pages
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$1,295.00
North Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View : The strong demand for mobile data services in the North Africa n telecoms markets is driving investments in network upgrade and expansion, with operators in Algeria, albeit from a low base, and Morocco leading the way in capital expenditure ( capex ) spending in 2014. The uptake of 3G network services in this region, aided by the increasing availability of low-cost smartphones, will allow mobile operators diversify their revenue streams away from basic services amid increased regulatory and competitive pressure. Libya is still left out of this development trend, with insecurity and political stability delaying a much - needed liberalisation process in the telecoms sector and weighing on investor sentiment.

Key Data

  • Tunisia's fixed-line market contracted by 2.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q3 2014, falling below the 1mn mark. In contrast, the mobile and broadband markets grew by 4.1% and -2.2% respectively during the same period. The broadband market is affected by falling demand for data-only 3G services as well as for ADSL connections.

  • Morocco's 3G subscriptions increased by 70.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 9.9% q-o-q in Q3 2014, to 7.554mn. This was equal to 17.1% of the entire mobile market, up from 11% a year earlier.

  • Algeria's mobile market grew by 5.1% q-o-q and 14.2% y-o-y in Q3 2014, driven by strong uptake of 3G network services.

Key Trends & Developments

In November 2014, the Moroccan regulator allowed prospective bidders to purchase auction documentation relating to a planned sale of 4G LTE licences. The timetable for the auction and details such as base prices were not immediately disclosed. Wana/ Inwi and Meditel have said that they will not bid until incumbent Maroc Telecom is forced to open up its local fixed-line networks for backhauling and interconnection purposes. Maroc Telecom had until early August to do so, but had failed to establish wholesale pricing schemes and open access agreements by the end of 2014.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Algeria
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Algeria 2011-2018)
13
Libya
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Libya 2011-2018)
16
Morocco
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Morocco 2011-2018)
18
Tunisia
22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tunisia 2011-2018)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Industry Risk/Reward Indices
25
Table: MENA Risk/Reward Indices, Q414
30
Market Overview
31
Algeria
31
Key Developments
31
Mobile
31
Table: Algeria - Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2012-2014 (USD)
36
3G
36
Table: Algeria Exclusive 3G Province Groupings
37
Mobile Operator Data
38
Table: Mobilis
38
Table: Djezzy
39
Table: Ooredoo
39
Fixed Line
41
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2005-2012 ('000)
41
Broadband
43
Government Broadband Plans
44
Libya
45
Key Developments
45
Mobile
46
Table: Libya Mobile Market, December 2013
47
A Third Operator
47
Fixed Line
49
Broadband
50
Morocco
51
Key Developments
51
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q214
54
3G
55
Mobile Operator Data
59
Table: Maroc T-l-com
59
Table: M-ditel
60
Table: Wana
60
Fixed Line
60
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2012-2014
61
Broadband
63
Tunisia
67
Key Developments
67
Mobile
67
Table: Tunisia - Mobile Market, Q2 2014
70
Mobile Operator Data
74
Table: Tunisie T-l-com
74
Table: Ooredoo
74
Table: Orange Tunisia
75
Fixed Line
75
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2012-2014
76
Broadband
76
Table: Tunisian Internet Market, 2012-2014
77
Middle East And North Africa Mobile Content
80
Regulatory Development
85
Table: North African Regulatory Environment
85
Algeria
85
Table: Key Developments
87
Libya
87
Morocco
89
Table: Key Developments
90
Tunisia
91
Competitive Landscape
92
Table: Key Players - North Africa Telecoms Sector
92
Company Profile
93
Alg-rie T-l-com
93
Maroc T-l-com
97
Tunisie T-l-com
102
Orascom Telecom
106
Ooredoo (Tunisiana)
109
Regional Overview
112
Table: Major NSN Contract Wins In MENA, H114
114
Demographic Forecast
115
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: Algeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
117
Table: Algeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
118
Table: Algeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Sources
123
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
124
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
125

The North Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Algerian, Libyan, Moroccan, Tunisian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc