Oman and Yemen Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Oman and Yemen Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Oman and Yemen Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Uncertainty over the health of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, who has governed Oman since 1970, is bringing the succession question to the fore. We see major risks in the succession process. Governance is set to become more unpredictable in the future, and the Omani political system - with the Sultan enjoying all-encompassing powers - is largely unsustainable in its current form.

  • Tightening liquidity conditions, public spending cuts, and weak export growth will present headwinds for Oman's economy and corporate sector over 2016. Growth will weaken to 2.3% in real terms, compared to the annualised rate of 3.5% recorded between 2010 and 2014.

  • The fall in oil prices will leave Oman posting budget and current account deficits for years. While the country can rely on the debt and loan markets for the time being, the need to implement new taxes and curb spending will test the regime's popularity.

  • Oman is well positioned to benefit from improvements in Iran's relations with the West. The relaxation of the international sanctions regime on Iran will provide an upside factor for Omani exports and investment inflows.

  • The escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia threaten to undermine Oman's long held position of regional neutrality. Although the country's careful balance between Tehran and the rest of the Gulf is likely to be maintained as long as Sultan Qaboos bin Said is in power, his successor could struggle to navigate the same middle ground.

  • Government efforts to attract Omani nationals to the private sector (known as 'Omanisation') will continue to meet with limited success. We expect the government to adopt a more flexible approach over the coming years to accommodate the concerns of companies amidst a weakening economy. In the long term, improvements in education will be a more effective driver of job creation than strict 'Omanisation' targets.

  • Dropping the rial's peg to the US dollar would provide little benefit to the Omani economy, and is not our core scenario. Nevertheless, the risk of a forced devaluation will grow throughout the coming years, given the deterioration in Oman's fiscal and external dynamics and the country's low foreign reserve buffers.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Oman 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 81.7 73.3 75.2 77.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.8 -0.1 1.0 2.0
Exchange rate OMR/USD, eop 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.4 -17.8 -16.3 -12.8
Current account balance, % of GDP 5.0 -13.5 -13.2 -8.2
Executive Summary - Oman
11
Core Views
11
Chapter 1
13
SWOT Analysis
13
Economic Growth Outlook
14
2016 To Be A More Difficult Year
14
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
15
TABLE: BMI - OIL PRICE FORECASTS, ANNUAL AVERAGE FRONT-MONTH (USD/BBL)
15
TABLE: COMPONENTS OF GDP (% OF TOTAL)
16
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
16
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
16
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
17
Cuts, Borrowing And Privatisation
17
TABLE: SELECTED INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS
17
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
17
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
17
Structural Fiscal Position
20
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
20
Monetary Policy
21
Rising Rates To Fuel Further Deflation
21
Monetary Policy Framework
22
Chapter 1
23
The Omani Economy To 2025
23
Next Episode: Shifting Away From Oil
23
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
23
Chapter 1
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Foreign Policy
26
Caught In The Middle Of Regional Tensions
26
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
26
Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Royal Succession: Who Is Next In Line-
27
TABLE: FRONTRUNNERS FOR THE SUCCESSION
28
Chapter 1
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
32
Trade Procedures And Governance
33
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
33
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
34
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
34
Vulnerability To Crime
35
Executive Summary - Yemen
39
Core Views
39
Key Risks
39
Chapter 2
41
SWOT Analysis
41
Economic Growth Outlook
42
Deep Recession Ahead As War Continues
42
TABLE: KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
42
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
43
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
43
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
43
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
44
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
44
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
45
Huge Deficits Despite Large Cutbacks In Spending
45
Structural Fiscal Position
46
Chapter 2
47
The Yemeni Economy To 2025
47
Bleak Outlook As Energy Exports Contract
47
Chapter 2
49
SWOT Analysis
49
Domestic Politics
50
Peace Deal To Remain Elusive
50
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
50
Long-Term Political Outlook
51
Federalised State To Emerge Amid Protracted Instability
51
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
55
Global Macro Outlook
55
Unfinished Business In 2016
55
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
55
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
56
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
56
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
57
TABLE: OMAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
59
TABLE: YEMEN - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
59

Assess your risk exposure in Oman, Yemen with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Oman, Yemen with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report