We expect the formation of a fragile federalised state in Yemen. This will take time, and the country will remain fragmented over the coming years.
Political and social instability will continue for many years. The divisions between the internationally recognised government and the Houthi rebels shows no signs of being solved.
The economic outlook is bleak, with growth remaining negative over the next three years. Our core scenario sees business activity continuing to be negatively impacted by civil unrest, while persistent attacks on the country's hydrocarbon infrastructure will weigh on exports.
International donors and the Yemeni government will be unable to substantially ameliorate the dramatic humanitarian situation in the country.
Yemen's external balance is facing a crisis; without financial support from the Saudi government, the rial would come under unsustainable depreciatory pressure.
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||32.5||31.3||28.5||27.1|
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||-1.1||-9.7||-7.4||-5.9|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||9.5||12.0||12.0||9.0|
|Exchange rate YER/USD, eop||215.00||215.13||260.00||280.00|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-8.6||-13.9||-13.1||-12.3|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||-6.8||-14.0||-16.0||-17.3|
Assess your risk exposure in Oman, Yemen with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Oman, Yemen with confidence.
Your subscription service includes:
- Delivery of the report in print and PDF
- Online access for 12 months
- The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
- The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
- The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
- Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report