Oman Autos Report

Published 22 May 2015

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Oman Autos Report

The year 2014 was a positive year for Omani new vehicle sales, which ended the year up by 8.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), at 141,646 units, according to BMI calculations based on figures from Oman's National Centre for Statistics and Information. Passenger car sales were up by 12.3 y-o-y, to 119,115 units, while commercial vehicle sales actually fell by 7.8% y-o-y, to 22,531 units.

However, looking at early sales trends for 2015, it is clear that the current year will prove considerably more challenging for the new vehicle sales market in Oman. Total new vehicle sales were down by 19.7% y-o-y, to 26,133 units, over Q115. Passenger car sales were down by 25% y-o-y, at 20,390 units, while CV sales rose, by 8%, to reach 5,743 units.

As such, BMI has scaled back its 2015 new vehicle sales forecast considerably. We are now anticipating a 24.3% fall in new vehicle sales over 2015, to 107,263 units. However, while passenger car sales are expected to fall dramatically (-30% y-o-y), we believe there may be scope for some growth (in the order of 6% y-o-y) for commercial vehicle sales over the full year on current sales trends.

The main reason behind the sharp downward revision in our near-term autos sales forecasts is the recent collapse in the global oil price. For 2015, as with other oil-producing nations in the Gulf, BMI has become more cautious on the outlook for Oman's economy, and by extension its auto sales, following the recent sharp falls in the global oil price.

Overall, we feel that economic activity will slow over 2015, as the continued slump in oil prices weakens business and consumer confidence and limits growth in government spending. Our outlook will also be influenced by two key geopolitical developments over the coming quarters. The easing of international sanctions on Iran - we now believe that a deal will reached on the latter's nuclear programme in June - will be a net positive for the Omani economy. On the other hand, the escalating conflict in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Oman 2013-2019)
16
Sales
16
Trade
19
Passenger Vehicles
21
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Oman 2013-2019)
21
Table: Oman - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, 2014
22
Luxury Cars
24
Commercial Vehicles
26
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Oman 2013-2019)
26
Suppliers
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: GCC - REAL GDP GROWTH, % CHG Y-O-Y
37
Table: Oman - Selected Infrastructure And Industrial Projects
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Middle East - Risk/Reward Index
41
GCC Still Dominates
41
Little Change Mid-Table
42
Conflicts Take Their Toll
42
Table: MENA Autos Risk/Reward Index
44
Company Profile
45
Company Monitor
45
MEA A Good Starting Point
46
Key Markets Also Bring Challenges
47
Saud Bahwan Group
50
Suhail Bahwan Automobiles
54
Regional Overview
57
Industry Trend Analysis
57
Table: MENA Autos Production Investments
57
Global Industry Overview
59
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
59
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
59
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
61
Asia Carries The BRIC States
62
Demographic Forecast
64
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Oman 1990-2025)
65
Table: Key Population Ratios (Oman 1990-2025)
65
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Oman 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group (Oman 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group % (Oman 1990-2025)
67
Methodology
69
Industry Forecasts
69
Sector-Specific Methodology
70
Sources
70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
71
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
72

The Oman Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Oman Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Oman.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Oman to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Omani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Omani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc