BMI View: We maintain our forecast that passenger car sales will fall 10 .0 % in 2016, but have fu r ther downgraded our prediction for commercial vehicle sales, which we now foresee dropping 15 .0 %. Both categories will experience only a modest recovery from 2017, with aggregate vehicle sales expanding by a total of just 8 .0 % across the period of 201 7 to 2020, representing average annual growth of just over 1 .0 % per year.
|Passenger Car And Light Commercial Vehicle Sales|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
Total vehicle sales fell 7.2% y-o-y to 77,159 units in 9M2016, with private car sales falling 3.7% to 54,758 units, sales of rental cars dropping 27% to 2,716 units and sales of commercial vehicles falling 16.4% to 15,693 units.
We forecast that H216 would see an intensification of the overall negative trend, particularly for the passenger car segment, and the data for Q316 has borne out this trend, with Q416 likely to see a further worsening of sales performance by this segment.
We maintain our forecast of a 10.0% fall in passenger car sales this year, while steeping our predicted decline for commercial vehicle sales to 15.0%, translating into a fall in total vehicle sales of 11.2% to 91,778 units.
We then predict annual growth in total vehicle sales of just 2.5% in 2017, taking total sales to 94,108 units, followed by annual rises ranging between 1.1% and 2.6% over the period 2018 to 2020.
The Oman Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Oman Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Oman.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Oman to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Omani automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Omani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.