Oman Autos Report

Published 13 August 2015

  • 69 pages
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$1,295.00
Oman Autos Report

BMI has become increasingly negative on the outlook for Omani new vehicle sales over the past quarter. Indeed, we now feel that the indicators that are positive to Oman's economic growth prospects, such as a growing population and increasing urbanisation, are actually putting a burden on its roads. Moreover, we feel that new measures to curb congestion mean that the poorest consumers will be priced out of the car market. As such, we now expect total vehicle registrations (all first time registrations of both new and second-hand vehicles) to fall by 24.3% in 2015, led by a 30% drop in passenger car registrations, as people find it increasingly difficult to afford car purchases.

From May 1, imports of used vehicles more than seven years old have been banned and, while Omani nationals can import any number of vehicles meeting these requirements, non-nationals are restricted to just one. This echoes earlier attempts elsewhere in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states to limit congestion by targeting the non-national community, such as Qatar proposing a limit on the number of driving licences that can be issued to ex-pats. Moreover, in a bid to regulate the second-hand import market, the Royal Oman Police (ROP) has also introduced a directory of prices for cars produced between 2000 and 2010, which will stop the practice of estimating a car's value in order to calculate the import tariff. This is largely expected to increase prices as the rate had previously been at the ROP official's discretion. Overall, BMI believes that this new import tariff - which will price many consumers out of the market - will have a devastating impact on what had until now been a thriving second-hand import market.

As we pointed out in relation to Qatar, however, such measures can only work if there are sufficient transport alternatives in place. BMI's Logistics Risk index is a good indication of how Oman faces the same limitations as Qatar. While Oman scores second highest in the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Oman 2013-2019)
16
Sales
16
Production
19
Trade
20
Passenger Vehicles
22
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Oman 2013-2019)
22
Table: Oman - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, 2014
22
Luxury Cars
25
Commercial Vehicles
27
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Oman 2013-2019)
27
Motorcycles
29
Suppliers
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: GCC - REAL GDP GROWTH, % CHG Y-O-Y
38
Table: Oman - Selected Infrastructure And Industrial Projects
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Iran The Epitome Of 'High Risk, High Reward'
42
GCC Leads On Stability
43
Conflict Risks Are Pertinent
43
Company Profile
44
Company Monitor
44
Saud Bahwan Group
47
Suhail Bahwan Automobiles
50
Regional Overview
53
Industry Trend Analysis
53
Table: MENA Production Investments
53
GCC Production Spreads
53
Changes In North Africa
55
Global Industry Overview
56
1
56
2
57
3
58
4
59
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Oman 1990-2025)
62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Oman 1990-2025)
62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Oman 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group (Oman 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Oman 1990-2025)
64
Methodology
66
Industry Forecasts
66
Sector-Specific Methodology
67
Sources
67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
68
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Oman Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Oman Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Oman.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Oman to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Omani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Omani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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