BMI View: Oman's evolving demographic and epidemiological profile will act as key drivers of growth within the country's pharmaceuticals and healthcare markets over the coming years. We view Oman as having considerable growth potential, supported by an expanding private sector and the government's ongoing commitment to advancing healthcare. The country's weak domestic manufacturing capabilities will ensure Oman remains an import-driven market, particularly as the population favours those innovative medicines sourced from abroad. Over the long term, Oman's population will benefit from more affordable healthcare services as price unification becomes more standardised across the Gulf States.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: OMR242mn (USD628mn) in 2015 to OMR258mn (USD671mn) in 2016; 6.8% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 2 1 6 .
Healthcare: OMR1.10bn (USD2.86bn) in 2015 to OMR1.15bn (USD3.00bn) in 2016; +4.9% in local currency terms, +5.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 2 16 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.590||0.630||0.670||0.720||0.770||0.820||0.880|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.72||0.86||0.89||0.92||0.94||0.95||0.96|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.6||21.0||21.3||21.7||22.2||22.6||23.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||2.860||3.000||3.150||3.300||3.460||3.630||3.800|
In our Q316 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Oman's score of 47.6 out of 100 is marginally lower than its score last quarter of 48.8, moving down one position to 10th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Regionally, Oman ranks relatively poorly compared to the other Gulf States - only Iraq is positioned lower. Oman has limited longer-term commercial potential due to its small population, low per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and the fact that the government is responsible for the bulk of healthcare costs, which will increase the need for cost containment in the coming years. However, Oman's well-established intellectual property regime and exemplary business environment will boost Oman's attractiveness as an investment destination.
In May 2016, as part of a national plan to tackle antibiotic resistance, a national campaign to define the rational use of antibiotics was launched by the Omani Ministry of Health.
In April 2016, Oman's Health Minister, Ahmad Al Saidi, reported that over 390 doctors in Oman had resigned in 2015 as a result of failed delivery on a number of health projects.
In April 2016, over 50 Omani hospitals and clinics took part in the International Health and Medical Treatment exhibition - with representatives from India, Thailand, Korea, Iran, Turkey, Germany, Ukraine, Cuba and the UAE present - supporting medical tourism in Oman.
BMI Economic View
Tightening liquidity conditions, public spending cuts, and weak export growth will present headwinds for Oman's economy and corporate sector over 2016. Growth will weaken to 2.3% in real terms, and 2.5% in 2017, compared to the annualised rate of 4.0% recorded between 2010 and 2014.
BMI Political View
Royal succession is the major question regarding Oman's political future, although demographic change and regional instability also pose challenges. In particular, the escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia threaten to undermine Oman's long-held position of regional neutrality. The impetus for any major political change is likely to come from Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, assuming that he tackles the issue before the end of his reign.
The Oman Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Oman Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Oman pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Oman, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Omani pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Omani pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.