BMI View: We uphold our view that Oman's pharmaceuticals and healthcare markets will remain an attractive investment proposition for multinational pharmaceutical companies. The public sector will continue to fund the majority of healthcare expenditure in Oman. H owever , the private sector will play a pivotal role in healthcare expansion over the long term as compulsory health insurance schemes gain traction and the government looks to shift some of the financial burden. The rising cost of medical services will be kept in check to an extent by the downward pressure on drug prices - mainly driven by the GCC' s medicine price unification process. Over the long term, Oman's population will benefit from more affordable healthcare services as price unification becomes more standardised across the Gulf States.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: OMR242mn (USD629mn) in 2015 to OMR258mn (USD671mn) in 2016; 6.8% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 1 1 6 .
Healthcare: OMR942mn (USD2.45bn) in 2015 to OMR1.01bn (USD2.60bn) in 2016; +6.3% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q116 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.588||0.629||0.671||0.717||0.767||0.820||0.878|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.72||0.87||0.91||0.93||0.95||0.96||0.98|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||25.6||25.7||25.8||26.0||26.1||26.4||26.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||2.299||2.447||2.602||2.764||2.934||3.112||3.298|
In our Q216 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Oman's score of 48.8 out of 100 is marginally lower than its score last quarter of 49.0, moving down one position to 9th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Regionally, Oman ranks relatively poorly compared to the other Gulf States - only Iraq is positioned lower. Oman has limited longer-term commercial potential due to its small population, low per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and the fact that the government is responsible for the bulk of healthcare costs, which will increase the need for cost containment in the coming years. However, Oman's well-established intellectual property regime and exemplary business environment will ensure Oman remains an attractive investment destination for pharmaceutical companies.
In February 2016, the Sultanate of Oman will host the 8th International Glaucoma Surgery Congress in Oman, which will include an exhibition of the latest pharmaceutical products and electro-medical devices by specialised international companies.
In February 2016, Director of the National Oncology Centre of the Ministry of Health, Dr Bassim Bin Jaafar Al Bahrani, confirmed that Oman spent over OMR6mn (USD15.68mn) on cancer medicines in 2015.
In January 2016, the third phase of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)'s drug price unification process will come into force in Oman. In this phase, the Ministry of Health has decided that a further 4,246 drugs will be reduced in price.
BMI Economic View
The growth of Oman's economy will slow over 2016, as the slump in global energy prices begins to have a larger impact on the private sector and the government starts to take more extensive steps to control public spending. Tightening liquidity conditions, reduced fiscal support, and weak export growth will present headwinds for corporates. We have revised down our forecasts, and see real economic growth of 2.3% for 2016 and 2.5% in 2017, compared to our previous projection of 2.8% for both years.
BMI Political View
The escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia threaten to undermine Oman's long held position of regional neutrality. Although the country's careful balance between Tehran and the rest of the Gulf is likely to be maintained as long as Sultan Qaboos bin Said is in power, his successor could struggle to navigate the same middle ground.
The Oman Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Oman Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Oman pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Oman, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Omani pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Omani pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.