BMI View: Oman's evolving demographic and epidemiological profile will act as key drivers of growth within the country's pharmaceuticals and healthcare markets over the coming years - shaping opportunities for multinational pharmaceutical companies. The rollout of a compulsory health insurance scheme, promotion of medical tourism and greater international collaboration will boost the private sector's contribution to healthcare in Oman. Over the long term, however, the public sector will remain the dominant healthcare p l ayer as the rapidly growing demand for healthcare services necessitates high levels of government commitment.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: OMR244mn (USD634mn) in 2015 to OMR257mn (USD668mn) in 2016; +5.3% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 4 16.
Healthcare: OMR1.14bn (USD2.96bn) in 2015 to OMR1.19bn (USD3.08bn) in 2016; +3.9% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q 4 16.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: UN Comtrade, national sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.588||0.634||0.668||0.705||0.745||0.789||0.836|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.72||0.87||0.89||0.91||0.92||0.93||0.94|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||20.6||21.4||21.7||22.0||22.3||22.6||23.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||2.856||2.965||3.082||3.207||3.342||3.487||3.643|
In our Q117 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Oman's score of 47.6 out of 100 matches its score last quarter, and maintains its position in 11th place out of 31 countries analysed in the whole Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Regionally, Oman ranks relatively poorly compared to the other Gulf States - only Iraq is positioned lower. Oman has limited longer-term commercial potential due to its small population, low per capita spending on pharmaceuticals and the fact that the government is responsible for the bulk of healthcare costs, which will increase the need for cost containment in the coming years. However, Oman's well-established intellectual property regime and exemplary business environment will boost Oman's attractiveness as an investment destination.
In November 2016, the Omani government announced plans to create a Medical City Investment Fund, to support the establishment of a world-class tertiary healthcare and medical education hub.
In October 2016, UAE-based Julphar pharmaceuticals launched two new diabetes medicines in countries that included Oman, through the assistance of a supply and co-marketing agreement with Merck Sharp & Dohme.
Omanexpo is organising the sixth Oman Health Exhibition Conference in September 2016 in a bid to attract more drugmakers to set up in Oman.
BMI Economic View
Growth of Oman's economy will slow over H216 and 2017, as the slump in global energy prices begins to have a larger impact on the private sector and the government starts to take more extensive steps to control public spending. Tightening liquidity conditions, reduced fiscal support, and weak export growth will present headwinds for corporates. Progress on public infrastructure projects will remain a key source of support for construction activity and domestic demand, but to a lesser extent than in recent years. We forecast real economic growth at 2.3% for 2016 and 2.5% in 2017, compared to the annualised rate of 4.0% recorded between 2010 and 2015.
BMI Political View
The escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia threaten to undermine Oman's long held position of regional neutrality. Although the country's careful balance between Tehran and the rest of the Gulf is likely to be maintained as long as Sultan Qaboos bin Said is in power, his successor could struggle to navigate the same middle ground.
The Oman Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Oman Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Oman pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Oman, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Omani pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Omani pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.