The outlook for Oman's shipping sector is mixed. The port of Salalah is expected to endure a th ird consecutive year of decline in 2015, but the port of Sohar will enjoy extraordinary gro wth once more. This is largely due to the transfer of operations from Sultan Qaboos, but continued investment into new dry bulk industries will also prompt strong growth. Despite the at-times challenging outlook, Oman continues to invest in its maritime facilities.
Headline Industry Data
2015 container throughput at Salalah is forecast to contract by 3.5%. Growth will return in 2016, and from 2015 to 2019 will average 3.1%.
2015 total tonnage throughput at Sohar forecast to reach 58.96mn tonnes - an expansion of 9.8%. Growth will average 11.8% over the medium term.
Oman's total trade is forecast to see 3.9% real growth in 2015, and to average 2.4% per annum to 2019.
Key Industry Trends
Salalah Facing Increased Competition : The port of Salalah will endure a third consecutive year of throughput declines in 2015. Although domestic demand will not be as great as we previously expected - as a result of falling oil prices weighing on economic activity - the real driver of this decline is a loss of transhipment volumes, which account for the bulk of the over-3mn TEUs handled by the facility. Salahah is facing increased competition from other regional ports, and has lost business from the consolidation of a major service operated by Maersk Line and MSC.
Fall ing Oil Prices A Risk : We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for Oman on the back of falling oil prices, which more than halved from September 2014 to January 2015, and dropped below USD50/bbl for the first time in years. We now forecast a 3.3% expansion, versus our previous expectation of 3.7%. If private consumption and fixed capital investment in Oman decline as a result of this then container and dry bulk and project cargo throughput at the country's ports will be negatively affected.
Duqm Port To Be...
The Oman Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Oman.
BMI's Oman Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Oman.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Oman to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Omani shipping market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.